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  #611 (permalink)  
Old 03-07-2007, 04:16 PM
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Pupsik

Quote:
Originally Posted by pupsik
During sleepeng time my computer did optimization for my data stream. For 5 hours was 150 passes.I Could not get 44k, best result - 20k.I feel little envie to you,guy's, because seems like my data provider don't want for me to use SimbaSystem . Any way, I will do more optimization on weekend.

By the way, I red Hurst "Profit Magic", half book for the day.Thank you,Simba, for such nice recomendation.
Question:
Do you consider GBP/USD as the best pair for cycle analysis, or there some other cyclycally consistent pair's?

Best regards.

Lucky you to live in warm climate, we have today -20 Celsium outside.
Hi Pupsik,

Thanks for the optimization job,what are the optimal settings according to your computer?

ALL Majors,liquid pairs are suitable for cyclic analysis..you have to take into account the carry trade negative/positive interest(the swap) when doing them in the "wrong" direction..

Where I live is usually cold in winter(-2 to -8 celsius day/night temperatures),
though compared with yours,it looks like warm weather....

Regards
Simba
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  #612 (permalink)  
Old 03-07-2007, 06:19 PM
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Hi all,

Please check the attachment for version 1.2 of the EA. It's got fixed risk money management feature in it (e.g. MaximumRisk=3 means that you risk 3% of the account each trade; MaximumRisk=0 means that you trade 1 lot every time).
Second, you can set and therefore optimize W%R period.
My testing of the Chandelier distances and TP issue is now under way -- till it gets done you can start playing with W%R. Simba already wrote on that issue, for inspiration check post #510. As far as money management, I don't have a clue where to start. It would be good to find a methodology of optimizing that would give us the best setup not in terms of profit and drawdown but in terms of statistically predicting whether the next trade is going to be a winner or loser (and thus increasing or decreasing number of lots being traded).

Simba,

Thanks for your information. It gave me courage to continue reading the book. Hope everything will become clear some day I know about the threads (by newdigital, too) on this forum and about Damiani website but everything is just complete indicators (great ones though) and a couple of basic info by newdigital -- no more explanations. Basically the only thing I know about digital filters is that the values of underlying indicators are multiplied by certain numbers to make them more fast-responsive and self-adapting. That's about it... well, as I said, I'll keep trying
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 SimbaSystemM1v1.2.mq4 (6.6 KB, 116 views)
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  #613 (permalink)  
Old 03-08-2007, 12:39 PM
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Hi,Malcik!

Great job,Malcik! Thank you!
With WPR optimization I am getting close to Simba's 44 000$ with my data stream.
So far I could get 37335.68 $ in 2,5 years wth this setting:

WPR_Period=78 MA_Type=1 JMA_HMA_Period=13 JMA_Phase=0 ChandDist_Min=9 ChandDist_Max=180 TPPips=330 MaximumRisk=0
Still I do optimization, will post later on best result.
Best regards!
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  #614 (permalink)  
Old 03-08-2007, 03:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pupsik
Great job,Malcik! Thank you!
With WPR optimization I am getting close to Simba's 44 000$ with my data stream.
So far I could get 37335.68 $ in 2,5 years wth this setting:

WPR_Period=78 MA_Type=1 JMA_HMA_Period=13 JMA_Phase=0 ChandDist_Min=9 ChandDist_Max=180 TPPips=330 MaximumRisk=0
Still I do optimization, will post later on best result.
Best regards!
Hmm, but 2.5years, very long time...
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  #615 (permalink)  
Old 03-08-2007, 09:20 PM
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Frantacech

Quote:
Originally Posted by frantacech
Hmm, but 2.5years, very long time...

Hi Frantacech,

Interesting comment you did..

1-Initial equity 10k
2-net profit in 2.5 years..44k..slightly more than 90% yearly return,compounded...
3-absolute drawdown 0.3k
4-Max %drawdown..13%

Options:

A-you were joking...fine
b-You didn`t realize that initial equity was 10k..fine
c-you think that multiplying by 5.4 your account(10k+44k=54k account value) with a 90% yearly return and 13% max%dd is for sissies..ok,then you trade the same strategy with 5 lots..you will have a max %dd of 60%..but at the end of the period you will have earned 220k..and a lot of wild rides..those reading,try it on tester..it will work(on tester.. )
d-You are actually trading something with better returns at the same level of risk,or know potential tested ways to improve the reward/risk of actual Ea..please teach us..
e-other options of which we are not aware..please be so kind to explain..

Regards
Simba
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  #616 (permalink)  
Old 03-08-2007, 11:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SIMBA
Hi Frantacech,

Interesting comment you did..

1-Initial equity 10k
2-net profit in 2.5 years..44k..slightly more than 90% yearly return,compounded...
3-absolute drawdown 0.3k
4-Max %drawdown..13%

Options:

A-you were joking...fine
b-You didn`t realize that initial equity was 10k..fine
c-you think that multiplying by 5.4 your account(10k+44k=54k account value) with a 90% yearly return and 13% max%dd is for sissies..ok,then you trade the same strategy with 5 lots..you will have a max %dd of 60%..but at the end of the period you will have earned 220k..and a lot of wild rides..those reading,try it on tester..it will work(on tester.. )
d-You are actually trading something with better returns at the same level of risk,or know potential tested ways to improve the reward/risk of actual Ea..please teach us..
e-other options of which we are not aware..please be so kind to explain..

Regards
Simba
Sorry for my comment, but I dont belive result from Strategy tester MQ4.
I have very direferent result forward and backtest any EAs.

For example.. Goblin.. backtest - disaster, ff in one month double deposit.
What working now, will be working in future 2,5 years? I dont know.

My friend with manual trading with deposit 4500chf make account to 135000. In three week. Gambler, but success for now. Only with price chart and Zerolagstoch at M15 TF. God baby.

Well
Attached Files
File Type: htm Statement_ 176534 - Goblin.htm (228.1 KB, 66 views)
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Last edited by frantacech; 03-08-2007 at 11:23 PM.
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  #617 (permalink)  
Old 03-08-2007, 11:42 PM
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simbaSystemM1v1.2

Hi Simba,

Firstly, I want to say thank you to Simba for sharing this excellent strategy.
I just found this thread a couple days ago & reading the whole thread in fast mode .. hehehe
& bought the book "profit magic" & still reading it slowly.

I dont know if this code already corrected or not, but anyway :

I found in the code :
LastBuyPrice=Bid;
I think it should be :
LastBuyPrice=Ask;

Popok

Last edited by popok_sakti; 03-08-2007 at 11:44 PM.
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  #618 (permalink)  
Old 03-09-2007, 12:57 AM
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frantacech

Quote:
Originally Posted by frantacech
Sorry for my comment, but I dont belive result from Strategy tester MQ4.
I have very direferent result forward and backtest any EAs.

For example.. Goblin.. backtest - disaster, ff in one month double deposit.
What working now, will be working in future 2,5 years? I dont know.

My friend with manual trading with deposit 4500chf make account to 135000. In three week. Gambler, but success for now. Only with price chart and Zerolagstoch at M15 TF. God baby.

Well
Hi frantacech,

Nothing to be sorry about..I was not offended,I didn`t understood the meanings of your comments..now I understand and allow me at the end of this post to give you some humble "implicit" advice in the form of a story..but first..

You don`t believe results of strategy tester..neither I ,but they are the best next thing,If it works in backtest it can work or not in real trading..but if it doesn`t work in backtest,you better throw it away..in addition we have learnt a lot about a system I trade live ,just by a pair of weeks of testing..

Goblin example...I think that this EA was created by bluto and he is an exceptional programmer,and an even better person..so,the only thing I can say is:if the backtest was not done for at least 2 years I do not consider it a valid backtest..if it was done for +2 years,then 1 month double the account is not relevant..let`s wait for 2 years and compare apples with apples..

Your friend...Most people will use their common sense to say that this is not a relevant example..it is exceptional in both profitability and shortness of time,so nothing you can realistically expect to replicate..I will take another venue..
Let me explain an interesting thing,I started trading in 1992,in that era,in Spain,if you wanted to trade you had 2 options,1-buy complicated ,expensive equipment (most fashionable came with satellite connection) to trade from your office..or go to some broker (fortunately the broker was very serious)to trade in the customer`s room(if you have read "reminiscences of a stock operator" ....you will imagine the ambience ) where we had 3 bloomberg screens for Futures traders,separated from the screens used by stock traders in the spanish stock exchange..in front of "our" screens sat everyday from 5 to 10 "daytraders",obviously we shared the 3 screens..and the 2 phones to execute the trades...

After the first year there were still around 7 traders of which only 2 were the same that when I started(I would say average life span was 4 months and i saw like 20,25 different people there)),your humble Simba and "my friend"..the only reason I was still there being that i was short the pound (and had the balls to ride the move) when George Soros decided it was a good sell too..he probably had insider info on my trade ..

The reason why "my friend" was there is that he converted a 50k$ account into 1.7 MILLION $ in 7 months..I was there I saw him do it,he traded 2 to 3 times a week,opening new positions or adding to already favourable positions that he then kept for 2 weeks to 3months,during that period I would say I never saw him lose a single trade,and,before somebody asks,I didn`t followed him...

Well..one day..he mentioned to me that with the money he had plus bank funding he was thinking about creating a Fund,with about 100mm bucks in it,etc,etc("delirios de grandeza "we say in spanish)...in 4 months he was back to below 100k$-he had the good sense to stop when his account was at around 70k$-he took the money,went to India to meditate,yes it is true..he went to India to "repair" his defectuous tool..his brain,and the astonishing thing is that around 6 months later,he reappeared,opened another account with 50k..and you know what..in 6/7 months he was back to 1.7mm bucks..and you know what..5/6 months later he was back at 70k(I told him he must have some kind of freudian fixation with 7..probably not his lucky number)

My friend was a genius trader with a psychological issue that severely limited his performance..Your friend can be either a genius or a lucky trader..only the passing of time will tell

To be successful in trading you need 3 things:

1-The basis: An edge,a profitable system,be it a 30% winning system with 8 to 1 avg win vs avg loss ratio..or a 80% system with 1 to 1 ratio,etc.with max 20% peak to valley drawdown..

2-The Multiplier:And I will prove it to you now..just look at the attachment,it is the same system that made 44k(13%maxdd) in the tests..now it makes 470k(38%maxdd)..what is the ONLY difference? what is the Multiplier? Money management..my friends

3-The Survivor:The most important issue in tradind is survival,believe me that ,just after my first year of trading,I felt like a 1000 years old vampire having seen how all the "departed ones" had exposed themselves unnecessarily-and happily- to the sun..The Survivor is you,your psychological issues..you have within yourself the capability to be a genius..and to destroy your account much faster than you can grow it.

Please see the attachment.and Hope this has helped somebody..

PS:Today is a typical "vampire killing day"..NFP..put on your solar protection ..take care..The Van Helsings of the world are there trying to trick you into the sun..

Regards
Simba
Attached Images
File Type: gif crazyride.gif (6.7 KB, 260 views)
Attached Files
File Type: htm crazyride.htm (404.2 KB, 41 views)

Last edited by SIMBA; 03-09-2007 at 01:19 AM.
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  #619 (permalink)  
Old 03-09-2007, 01:54 AM
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hi, simba
according your EA test , if there is some new SIMBA system buy and sell rule changed or updated?
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  #620 (permalink)  
Old 03-09-2007, 02:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SIMBA
Hi frantacech,

Nothing to be sorry about..I was not offended,I didn`t understood the meanings of your comments..now I understand and allow me at the end of this post to give you some humble "implicit" advice in the form of a story..but first..

You don`t believe results of strategy tester..neither I ,but they are the best next thing,If it works in backtest it can work or not in real trading..but if it doesn`t work in backtest,you better throw it away..in addition we have learnt a lot about a system I trade live ,just by a pair of weeks of testing..

Goblin example...I think that this EA was created by bluto and he is an exceptional programmer,and an even better person..so,the only thing I can say is:if the backtest was not done for at least 2 years I do not consider it a valid backtest..if it was done for +2 years,then 1 month double the account is not relevant..let`s wait for 2 years and compare apples with apples..

Your friend...Most people will use their common sense to say that this is not a relevant example..it is exceptional in both profitability and shortness of time,so nothing you can realistically expect to replicate..I will take another venue..
Let me explain an interesting thing,I started trading in 1992,in that era,in Spain,if you wanted to trade you had 2 options,1-buy complicated ,expensive equipment (most fashionable came with satellite connection) to trade from your office..or go to some broker (fortunately the broker was very serious)to trade in the customer`s room(if you have read "reminiscences of a stock operator" ....you will imagine the ambience ) where we had 3 bloomberg screens for Futures traders,separated from the screens used by stock traders in the spanish stock exchange..in front of "our" screens sat everyday from 5 to 10 "daytraders",obviously we shared the 3 screens..and the 2 phones to execute the trades...

After the first year there were still around 7 traders of which only 2 were the same that when I started(I would say average life span was 4 months and i saw like 20,25 different people there)),your humble Simba and "my friend"..the only reason I was still there being that i was short the pound (and had the balls to ride the move) when George Soros decided it was a good sell too..he probably had insider info on my trade ..

The reason why "my friend" was there is that he converted a 50k$ account into 1.7 MILLION $ in 7 months..I was there I saw him do it,he traded 2 to 3 times a week,opening new positions or adding to already favourable positions that he then kept for 2 weeks to 3months,during that period I would say I never saw him lose a single trade,and,before somebody asks,I didn`t followed him...

Well..one day..he mentioned to me that with the money he had plus bank funding he was thinking about creating a Fund,with about 100mm bucks in it,etc,etc("delirios de grandeza "we say in spanish)...in 4 months he was back to below 100k$-he had the good sense to stop when his account was at around 70k$-he took the money,went to India to meditate,yes it is true..he went to India to "repair" his defectuous tool..his brain,and the astonishing thing is that around 6 months later,he reappeared,opened another account with 50k..and you know what..in 6/7 months he was back to 1.7mm bucks..and you know what..5/6 months later he was back at 70k(I told him he must have some kind of freudian fixation with 7..probably not his lucky number)

My friend was a genius trader with a psychological issue that severely limited his performance..Your friend can be either a genius or a lucky trader..only the passing of time will tell

To be successful in trading you need 3 things:

1-The basis: An edge,a profitable system,be it a 30% winning system with 8 to 1 avg win vs avg loss ratio..or a 80% system with 1 to 1 ratio,etc.with max 20% peak to valley drawdown..

2-The Multiplier:And I will prove it to you now..just look at the attachment,it is the same system that made 44k(13%maxdd) in the tests..now it makes 470k(38%maxdd)..what is the ONLY difference? what is the Multiplier? Money management..my friends

3-The Survivor:The most important issue in tradind is survival,believe me that ,just after my first year of trading,I felt like a 1000 years old vampire having seen how all the "departed ones" had exposed themselves unnecessarily-and happily- to the sun..The Survivor is you,your psychological issues..you have within yourself the capability to be a genius..and to destroy your account much faster than you can grow it.

Please see the attachment.and Hope this has helped somebody..

PS:Today is a typical "vampire killing day"..NFP..put on your solar protection ..take care..The Van Helsings of the world are there trying to trick you into the sun..

Regards
Simba
Simba,
Thank you for your splendid commentary, again am something learned.

Regards FC
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