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Simba, thanks so much for your comments. I knew you wouldn't let me down Everything is clear now. I'll post my further backtests as soon as I have them. Meanwhile, take care!
Another sucessful trade from Simbasystem today morning.
Please see the chart.
Best regards.
Hi Pippt
Yes,you are right,this was a successful 5M and 1M too entry...There have been subsequent entries in the 1M tf @ around 1.9705/15 that,for the moment are not yet successful,though they are still open...until the Chandelier or the SATL say so..
I don`t know exactly why ,but I am getting the feeling that we will see cable above 1.9750 today or tomorrow morning,and that we are approaching a reversal area,both in price and time,in the next 48 hours,probably 24..we will see,and I will be extremely careful regarding open positions tonight
We have had 2 entry buy signals ,a few minutes ago in the 1Mtf,@around 1.9715/20
counting the spread..since the pivot is @1.9702..the SATL is @ 1.9693 and the Chandelier @ 1.9672..I will personally wait for the 5m signal ,if any.
For the moment,trend is still up,and I still believe we will see cable above 1.9750 during today..but that is just a belief ..and reality will rule ..as usual
We have just had our 5M buy entry signal @1.9665 counting the spread..Chandelier is in Limbo..so the trade is no more mechanic but personal..either do not take it or take it with a time stop..approx 5 minutes
Chandelier says down since 10:00 CET,while Satl still up,so,no trades until situation is clear again..if somebody papertraded the 5m entry he/she should be out with a minimal 5/10 pips paper loss..
Interesting that at 13:00 CET we have BOE on rates,and ECB at 13:45 CET..so,we can see a lot of volatility and stop hunting till then..
Just passing this link for your information.
Take a look at the weekly trend prediction.
Very helpful in knowing how much time I should spend trading this week.
As you can see this will be a pretty slow week, so I will take the week off.
Better off not trading and staying in profits.
I've redone the 5m backtest (see attachment). Rules:
ENTRY
Last SATL blue/red
Last Chandelier blue/orange
Last W%R below -95 / above -5
No reentries until W%R reaches -5 / -95 and then retraces back to -95/-5
EXIT
Entry SL and trailing SL 1 pip below/above last Chandelier
If within 5 pips above/below last Chandelier or below/above it, no SL
At 30 pips of profit, exit with first position and move second position's SL to BE
If last SATL or Chandelier changes its color, exit immediately
As you can see, it's exact SimbaSystem, except it allows no reentries (will deal with them on the next backtest as soon as we solve other issues). This applies also to entry SL's when the price is too close to last Chandelier (5 pips) or even crossed that level. Other than that, it should be pure SimbaSystem.
Included is how the trades would have gone using my 50 pips SL - Simba, you were right, on the 3 months of M5 testing full Chandelier does better. This is a lesson for me that feelings shouldn't play any role unless they are based on some serious evidence.
Next, it addresses the TTE issue. It would have increased our long-run profits but would have cut off part of many profitable trades. It is up to everyone if he's mentally able to cut part of his profits and avoid a couple of losing trades, or the contrary.
Now for a couple of partial conclusions.
It shows all distances of price from SATL and Chandelier at the time of our entries. There's a chart that sums it up graphically and personally I can't find any dependency between these numbers and performance - maybe someone else can? Only the rule that we shouldn't enter when SATL is more than 50 pips from the price to the wrong side, but for that there's too few trades and it only applies to reentries (according to SimbaSystem), will deal with it the next time as already mentioned.
Next, it shows how taking profits at 50 pips would have increased our profits (BE is still activated at 30 pips). It looks good, I will do it again the next time and include the setup of both moving to BE and TP as late as at 50 pips of profit.
Well, I have to say that nothing convinced me of any needed changes to SimbaSystem so far. I'm glad I'm coming to similar conclusions. 3 months of testing is maybe little but given it's on M5 chart... Only Chandelier and SATL are on higher timeframes but these indicators I just trust that they can tell me when the market is trending and where not. I have no specific method of testing this because I view it as kind of discretional thing. I've been playing with historical H1 and H4 charts, reading Simba's reasoning, and I've gained this kind of trust.
Next time (hope it's tomorrow) I'll do the backtest again and try to address the distance of SATL and Chandelier issue, the TP and BE issue, and everything regarding reentries (specially how many and with what kind of exits).
Hope this helps to someone. I'll be glad to read anyone's comments. Although I've said this about a number of systems already, I truly believe that THIS is going to be my first system that I put on live. I can't wait already, it really impresses me, as well as the stuff that's out there yet to be learned about the cycles theory.
Thanks!
P.S. Simba, I forgot to respon to the royal family issue... No, we don't have any royal families in the Czech Republic. I just like to work as a team or at least have such feeling. I'm giving this away and hope that someone will at least try it or read it, that I'm not going to be the only one, that's why I use the "we"
__________________
Malcik
Last edited by Malcik; 02-08-2007 at 10:36 PM.
Reason: Sorry, forgot the attachment :)
I've redone the 5m backtest (see attachment). Rules:
ENTRY
Last SATL blue/red
Last Chandelier blue/orange
Last W%R below -95 / above -5
No reentries until W%R reaches -5 / -95 and then retraces back to -95/-5
EXIT
Entry SL and trailing SL 1 pip below/above last Chandelier
If within 5 pips above/below last Chandelier or below/above it, no SL
At 30 pips of profit, exit with first position and move second position's SL to BE
If last SATL or Chandelier changes its color, exit immediately
As you can see, it's exact SimbaSystem, except it allows no reentries (will deal with them on the next backtest as soon as we solve other issues). This applies also to entry SL's when the price is too close to last Chandelier (5 pips) or even crossed that level. Other than that, it should be pure SimbaSystem.
Included is how the trades would have gone using my 50 pips SL - Simba, you were right, on the 3 months of M5 testing full Chandelier does better. This is a lesson for me that feelings shouldn't play any role unless they are based on some serious evidence.
Next, it addresses the TTE issue. It would have increased our long-run profits but would have cut off part of many profitable trades. It is up to everyone if he's mentally able to cut part of his profits and avoid a couple of losing trades, or the contrary.
Now for a couple of partial conclusions.
It shows all distances of price from SATL and Chandelier at the time of our entries. There's a chart that sums it up graphically and personally I can't find any dependency between these numbers and performance - maybe someone else can? Only the rule that we shouldn't enter when SATL is more than 50 pips from the price to the wrong side, but for that there's too few trades and it only applies to reentries (according to SimbaSystem), will deal with it the next time as already mentioned.
Next, it shows how taking profits at 50 pips would have increased our profits (BE is still activated at 30 pips). It looks good, I will do it again the next time and include the setup of both moving to BE and TP as late as at 50 pips of profit.
Well, I have to say that nothing convinced me of any needed changes to SimbaSystem so far. I'm glad I'm coming to similar conclusions. 3 months of testing is maybe little but given it's on M5 chart... Only Chandelier and SATL are on higher timeframes but these indicators I just trust that they can tell me when the market is trending and where not. I have no specific method of testing this because I view it as kind of discretional thing. I've been playing with historical H1 and H4 charts, reading Simba's reasoning, and I've gained this kind of trust.
Next time (hope it's tomorrow) I'll do the backtest again and try to address the distance of SATL and Chandelier issue, the TP and BE issue, and everything regarding reentries (specially how many and with what kind of exits).
Hope this helps to someone. I'll be glad to read anyone's comments. Although I've said this about a number of systems already, I truly believe that THIS is going to be my first system that I put on live. I can't wait already, it really impresses me, as well as the stuff that's out there yet to be learned about the cycles theory.
Thanks!
P.S. Simba, I forgot to respon to the royal family issue... No, we don't have any royal families in the Czech Republic. I just like to work as a team or at least have such feeling. I'm giving this away and hope that someone will at least try it or read it, that I'm not going to be the only one, that's why I use the "we"
HI MALCIK,
I enjoy your working as a team,and it is a pity you are not from a royal family
since it is always interesting to have royal acquaintances..anyway,I am glad you did the tests and I will comment on them tomorrow,Thanks a lot for your efforts and ..I will try to contribute something useful,as I told you before, your systematic way of thinking is a strong assett..and I appreciate it a lot,you have invested a lot of time and I will make sure that you at least can recover your investment..with some interest on it
Tonight(European night ) we have had 3 different 5M sell entry signals in the 1.9585/95 range...please see pic..At this moment Gbpusd is @ 1.9496,so,if somebody took them they should be very happy..I didn`t..but I am happy the same
Everything is clear now. I'll post my further backtests as soon as I have them. Meanwhile, take care!
Linear Mode
