Don`t read this thread..Make Money with it.

[jbfx]

I will review the book again, and see if I'm being too critical. I'm familiar with Suri's in a particular thread, and the patterns discussed are more of the exotic nature (ie dragon). So perhaps from that thread, my expectation was set too high for the book as well, I did not expect simple patterns and channels. Lots of filler material like bollinger, keltner, or Donchain channels, but even then, his approach to trading them are too simple and there is no discussion of how to trade them effectively in different scenarios. I did very much enjoy his work on the dragon pattern, it is with great detail, I just don't think he went into as much detail with the other simple patterns as he did with the exotic patterns.

If you follow his other thread, he showed a lot of different interesting statistics of volume vs. time based bars in the futures market. So I was expecting to see some sort of statistics for each pattern, how successful it is, what type of markets, and what kind of stop vs reward ratio for each pattern. To me, that would have been something for the "pros", and worthy of a book dedicated to patterns that would be useful for actual traders. Also, if he had discussed about timeframes and chart patterns with statistics would be extremely interesting to me. But I didn't get any of that, I got another book with illustrations of what a particular pattern looks like.

[SIMBA]

Originally Posted by jbfx

I will review the book again, and see if I'm being too critical. I'm familiar with Suri's in a particular thread, and the patterns discussed are more of the exotic nature (ie dragon). So perhaps from that thread, my expectation was set too high for the book as well, I did not expect simple patterns and channels. Lots of filler material like bollinger, keltner, or Donchain channels, but even then, his approach to trading them are too simple and there is no discussion of how to trade them effectively in different scenarios. I did very much enjoy his work on the dragon pattern, it is with great detail, I just don't think he went into as much detail with the other simple patterns as he did with the exotic patterns.

If you follow his other thread, he showed a lot of different interesting statistics of volume vs. time based bars in the futures market. So I was expecting to see some sort of statistics for each pattern, how successful it is, what type of markets, and what kind of stop vs reward ratio for each pattern. To me, that would have been something for the "pros", and worthy of a book dedicated to patterns that would be useful for actual traders. Also, if he had discussed about timeframes and chart patterns with statistics would be extremely interesting to me. But I didn't get any of that, I got another book with illustrations of what a particular pattern looks like.

jbfx,

1-Can you post the link to his thread?It will be useful for anybody interested in a more detailed explanation of his patterns than the one I can provide,including myself .

2-Quote" his approach to trading them are too simple and there is no discussion of how to trade them effectively in different scenarios."..unquote.

This is a matter of personal opinion,and of expectations created by previous knowledge of his more detailed work,so,I do not agree with you on the first point(too simple)since,in my personal opinion, even for the simpler patterns he explains detailed rules for entry ,stops and targets,and simple is what works in the markets..and I agree with you on the "lack of different scenarios"...anyway,we both have stated our opinions and could waste hours repeating and finetuning them(you could now say that it is not a matter of personal opinion but a fact,then I could post all the rules for his paterns for a factual demostration,then you could go on saying they are too simple not just simple,then..hope the point is clear ) BUT I would like to avoid this thread going into repetitiveness,if you don`t mind ,and I presume that you too have a better use for your time.

Thanks
Simba

[SIMBA]

This pattern occur at market bottoms and tops.Prices form key support and resitance areas at certain price ranges,and attempt to break these levels for at least 3 bars in a row.When prices fail to break these levels,they form,matching highs(resistance breakout failure) or matching lows(support breakdown failure),and these may signal potential trend reversals.

ENTRY:after a matching low pattern is found,we enter a long trade above the high of the breakout bar(for a matching high pattern we go short below the low of the breakdown bar).

STOP:Place a stop order below the low of the pattern for a matching lows pattern(place stop above highs of the pattern for a matching highs pattern).

TARGET:2 targets,for a long entry,the first target is "length of breakout bar from entry",second target is twice the length of the first one..(for a short entry,first target is length of breakdown bar from entry point and second target is twice that length)

MY PERSONAL OPINIONS:1-I like this pattern,have seen it working even with 2matched highs or lows or with slight variations in the highs or lows(in the attached chart the highs are 100.41,100.44,100.47)...2-I don`t like neither the targets nor the stop mechanics,first target has 1:1 reward/risk,second one has 2:1..so,suppose we enter with 2 lots,and first target and stop distances are 100 pips..either :1-we are stopped..lose 2*100=-200...or 2-we reach first target but not second..we gain 0,since we have 1*100-1*100=0...or 3-we reach both targets 1*100+1*200=+300..we would need a really good second target hit rate to make money with a good enough profit factor.

IMHO..1-STOPS:If first target is reached,we should move stop to break even for the other half of the position still open...2-TARGETS:We should take into account several factors..A-Length of breakout/breakdown bar,what happens if it is too small?...B-nearby areas of support and resistance...C-If we are supposedly catching an intermediate top or bottom..wouldn`t be more interesting to trail the position to the hilt?With a Chandelier stop or Trendenvelopes..or even PSAR?Even on the inmediately lower timeframe,with a Chandelier or Trendenvelopes we could have nicer rewards...or,if we don`t want to use indicators,we can just use "close above/below high/low" of previous bar to trail the move...anyway,just my opinion...Suri`s targets ,when long breakout bars are present(in the chart ,bar labelled with B is 332 pips long),look very tradable.

Regards
Simba

[jbfx]

I sent you a PM. And I really like what you are doing. I would like to see how effective it can be. Perhaps, I'm completely wrong in my expectations and perceptions. I'll be glad to eat crow.

[SIMBA]

Originally Posted by jbfx

I sent you a PM. And I really like what you are doing. I would like to see how effective it can be. Perhaps, I'm completely wrong in my expectations and perceptions. I'll be glad to eat crow.

Thanks,I just saw it,will check it and revert.

You don`t have to "eat crow",your comments are right on target,even if I don`t agree with them 100%,they are providing me a much needed alternative opinion... as you like what I am doing ,I like your comments,We have just differences of opinion,which are the bricks of learning.

I would be glad,if,instead of "eating crow",you post some setups that worked or failed for us to analyze..I won`t eat crow.. .for sure(no pun intended,just that I believe that "eating crow=learning" so,I won`t eat crow..just learn) and I will be glad to learn from these patterns...nobody has the right to truth..so,we shall just learn from everybody

Thanks for the link
Simba

[jbfx]

All of these patterns are just methods to spotting resistance and support, and how they are used depending on which side of the market you are on. There is really no patterns in my opinion, a double bottom is merely a retest of support. A dragon is merely a test of support, followed by a retest of support that penetrates temporarily, but it gets back above the support...then the price breaks the resistance of the 2nd peak, it takes off upwards. The trick is to understand which side of the market is right. Even in his illustrations for the inverse dragon, there were several retest of the resistance before the price moved in his favor.

Patterns are really elementary way of looking at price action around resistance and support. I think when you spend enough time in front of a screen, you will realize it is way more important to find the congestions, peak, and valleys...that's where the action will be. Patterns, it's nice to look at, but it is not necessary. It is just makes talking with someone else much easier to say a "insert exotic animal" pattern instead of retest of support and resistance. They see these patterns because there are a lot of fakes and spikes around these action zones to try to get people on the wrong side of market.

[SIMBA]

[quote=jbfx;199801] There is really no patterns in my opinion.....
Patterns are really elementary way of looking at price action around resistance and supportQUOTE]




"Pattern" is just the relationship of the foreground figure to the background....Understand this,and everything useful is just a pattern.

It is futile to argue as to which single leaf, which design of branch, or which attractive flower you like; when you understand the root, you understand all its blossoming.

To spend time is to pass it in a specified manner. To waste time is to expend it thoughtlessly or carelessly. We all have time to spend or waste, and it is our decision what to do with it. But once passed, it is gone forever...I won`t waste it anymore.

[jbfx]

Ok, for example, take your AUDJPY chart, I'll explain in support and resistance terms. A failure to go higher on the 3 bars, then a spike down...this can easily been a fake to suck in the shorts, ideally you want to see if it breaks and stays below the up channel formed from the LRC. When you see it stay below the trendline on the arrow bar, you have a pretty clear idea that there is a trend change. Still, it would be in the support zone formed by the previous small peak (close to where you second red line at 96.46), about 4th or 6th bar after your arrow bar, you see the price move and STAY below the previous support line. Then I would sell near that resistance line 96.46 (about 6-7 bars after your arrow bar) and place my stops above the highest peak or high of the arrow bar.

So this is how I would explain it, so it is much easier to just talk about patterns, and infer from the past results instead of looking at what the market is actually doing and telling you in real time.

Trading successfully is getting on the right side of the market. The market is changing constantly. Patterns are used to spot something that might happen. Reading the market is what gets you the confirmation after the pattern. That's how the pro's will trade by reading the market because we all know that any joe can spot a pattern. The pro's won't look at a pattern and put a bet on it without first seeing how the market reacts, or if they are just getting suckered. I was hoping more of this kind of insight from the book.

The pattern could have easily been suckered by a spike. I've seen plenty of spike down followed by an equally amazing spike up after a peak. They were just loading the buses on the trend express.

[SIMBA]

She wore a short skirt and a tight sweater and her figure described a set of parabolas that could cause cardiac arrest in a yak.
She was a blonde.A blonde to make a saint kick a hole in a stained glass window...
BEGGAR:Would you give me 25 cents for a sandwich,lady?
LADY:I don`t know...let me see the sandwich

[SIMBA]

Originally Posted by jbfx

Ok, for example, take your AUDJPY chart, I'll explain in support and resistance terms. A failure to go higher on the 3 bars, then a spike down...this can easily been a fake to suck in the shorts, ideally you want to see if it breaks and stays below the up channel formed from the LRC. When you see it stay below the trendline on the arrow bar, you have a pretty clear idea that there is a trend change. Still, it would be in the support zone formed by the previous small peak (close to where you second red line at 96.46), about 4th or 6th bar after your arrow bar, you see the price move and STAY below the previous support line. Then I would sell near that resistance line 96.46 (about 6-7 bars after your arrow bar) and place my stops above the highest peak or high of the arrow bar.

So this is how I would explain it, so it is much easier to just talk about patterns, and infer from the past results instead of looking at what the market is actually doing and telling you in real time.

Trading successfully is getting on the right side of the market. The market is changing constantly. Patterns are used to spot something that might happen. Reading the market is what gets you the confirmation after the pattern. That's how the pro's will trade by reading the market because we all know that any joe can spot a pattern. The pro's won't look at a pattern and put a bet on it without first seeing how the market reacts, or if they are just getting suckered. I was hoping more of this kind of insight from the book.



The pattern could have easily been suckered by a spike. I've seen plenty of spike down followed by an equally amazing spike up after a peak. They were just loading the buses on the trend express.

Excuse me,my leg has gone to sleep.Do you mind if I join it?