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View Poll Results: Is Elliot Wave Principle a highly profitable trading system?
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 09-04-2009, 01:45 AM
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The method with all options checked make the analisys last much longer. Elwave vheck for over 400000 combinations before completion, instead of about 20000 with the previous setting. But the results are mostly the sames, Maybe just one or two more wave degree is added to the Summary.

My last analisys of EUR USD came to this:

Capture.PNG


So i am profiting of the pull back for a buy, with interesting 3.5:1 R/R, exit not far at 4231, target not far at 4343. Market will probably stay flat till tomorrow NFP. .

Last edited by GreatYves; 09-04-2009 at 01:56 AM.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 02:51 AM
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Ok, stop loss was hit. No big deal 3%... But sometimes i get to think, nothing really is working, should i keep on with this method? I read others thread, everybody is here for the same thing. To improve their own trading. They want quick remedies to their own bad trading, that's why they keep coming back here, there jumping from one's method to another ones, switching, time frame, switching currency pair. Always looking for the holy grail. What if there is not any one method that work on all market condition. Apparently method only work within certain market condition. Either trend, either range, But current condition which is some kind of in-between trend or range mumblejuombo. Their must be a name for it. How to trade accordingly is something i don't yet have the wisdom to do.

Last time there was a big trend, started in august 2008 i couldn't jump in and ride it as i should, i drain my account and become completely pissed off, phisically, emotionally. I was trading mostly GBPUSD and i was range trading the 6 previous month with some success. Now i fell we are in the same situation. Euro, and GBP have been range trading for most of the summer. There have been no break out since a while, i feel that the next breakout will be a tremendous move, jumping in will be hard if i follow blindly EW, i don't have yet enough experience after 4 year in trading to be prepare for this event, if this even ever happen.

Any true help is really appreciated.

Last edited by GreatYves; 09-05-2009 at 02:54 AM.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 03:47 AM
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Hi, GreatYves:

You sound so frustrated not to be able to see things worked out the way we thought it would OR the way we expect it to go as per EW.

I had the same experiences like you when I first started with Advanced Get years ago until later I get the hang of it when I understood it better. The same experience I went through again when I started to experiment with Elwave 6.2 years ago also. Nothing seems to fall in places. The Elwave was even more difficult to figure out as many times the Elwave Analysis and their EW chart go in different directions.

I made the mistake thinking that both EOD EW softwares could handle intra-day conditions and also NOT REALIZING that intra-day has a lot of market “noise” and in forex with scheduled economic news releases almost every day – these causes wild fluctuations to the main trend and it easily triggered all my STOP LOSSES (no matter how much they are).

Personally, I feel both EOD Advanced Get and Elwave may NOT BE SUITABLE for day trading purposes and I have dropped this idea from my trading activities.

These softwares are more suitable for longer term plays though when I can make a good profit within the same day, I do so without hesitation. Even when I use it for longer term play, it does NOT mean once I see a signal I shall go in immediately. I have to check with my other favorite technical analysis tools to see whether there is going to be a retracement which will act against me. Then only I enter my trade. That is why lately even when the GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURJPY were showing downtrends, I did not short straightaway. There is a saying amongst expert traders that you either act in expectation or after the fact. I have long discovered EXPECTATIONS and REALITY are two worlds apart. I rather act “after the fact”.

As long as you do your experiments on demo accounts for a sufficient period of time, I still feel it is worth the effort when you discover an appropriate approach for yourself. When I was using Elwave 6.2 I was able to close most of my stock market trades WITHIN 14 days with a profit – the credit period given by my broker to me without charging me any interest. Now I don't have this luxury as I don't have Elwave 7.6 to help me but to rely on Advanced Get for a longer term play.

Although I am not particularly keen on EURUSD, but apart from the Analysis you put, if you can also put a chart to view, I shall be in a better position to chip in opinions to share with readers.

Kenneth
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 08:48 AM
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GreatYves,

I have come across few people in other forums who have used EW to their advantage and made good profit. Especially after the NFP news and when everything settled down this guy made 350 pips in one day on cable and guppy.
I think not everyone can apply EW correctly and win. I think we have to be patient and try again.

I have not used EW and don't know much about it but I'm planning to buy Elwave and learn about it.

May I know which modules and version of Elwave have you got?
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 04:26 PM
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Prognosis have a full trial version that last 1 month for i think 80$. The full premium version is about 2380$, and you need a datafeed. Their is plenty of options, google for prognosis website.
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 04:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenneth37 View Post
Hi, GreatYves:

You sound so frustrated not to be able to see things worked out the way we thought it would OR the way we expect it to go as per EW.

I had the same experiences like you when I first started with Advanced Get years ago until later I get the hang of it when I understood it better. The same experience I went through again when I started to experiment with Elwave 6.2 years ago also. Nothing seems to fall in places. The Elwave was even more difficult to figure out as many times the Elwave Analysis and their EW chart go in different directions.

I made the mistake thinking that both EOD EW softwares could handle intra-day conditions and also NOT REALIZING that intra-day has a lot of market “noise” and in forex with scheduled economic news releases almost every day – these causes wild fluctuations to the main trend and it easily triggered all my STOP LOSSES (no matter how much they are).

Personally, I feel both EOD Advanced Get and Elwave may NOT BE SUITABLE for day trading purposes and I have dropped this idea from my trading activities.

These softwares are more suitable for longer term plays though when I can make a good profit within the same day, I do so without hesitation. Even when I use it for longer term play, it does NOT mean once I see a signal I shall go in immediately. I have to check with my other favorite technical analysis tools to see whether there is going to be a retracement which will act against me. Then only I enter my trade. That is why lately even when the GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURJPY were showing downtrends, I did not short straightaway. There is a saying amongst expert traders that you either act in expectation or after the fact. I have long discovered EXPECTATIONS and REALITY are two worlds apart. I rather act “after the fact”.

As long as you do your experiments on demo accounts for a sufficient period of time, I still feel it is worth the effort when you discover an appropriate approach for yourself. When I was using Elwave 6.2 I was able to close most of my stock market trades WITHIN 14 days with a profit – the credit period given by my broker to me without charging me any interest. Now I don't have this luxury as I don't have Elwave 7.6 to help me but to rely on Advanced Get for a longer term play.

Although I am not particularly keen on EURUSD, but apart from the Analysis you put, if you can also put a chart to view, I shall be in a better position to chip in opinions to share with readers.

Kenneth
No i am not SO frustrated, just the regular frustration one feels after a negative week of trading. I am still 43% up in a month. What do i have to wine about! I am frustrated because i can't trade the lower time frame because of my day job, and geographical location. Present market condition are also to blame. But nobody can't do nothing about it!

I still need to perfect my method to prevent whipsaw during newstime. I knew that my stop was to near to go true news on Friday morning but i had decided to left it as is and hoped for a smooth move up on euro. I take responsibility. Instead their was this regular bear trap that got my stop and then price move my way. If i could have monitor my trade i would have exit before the news and buy back around 4230 on the reversal candle.

I understand that i need to trade longer time frame. If i had put my stop under 4177 as SubMinuette wave degree suggested i would ha got true, but also i would had need to put a buy order lower in order to have a decent R/R, at the risk to not have my order trigger at all. In this case it would had been trigged, i would be with a nice profit now, instead, i suffer a lost. Decision,decision,decision. This is hard enough.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 06:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreatYves View Post
Prognosis have a full trial version that last 1 month for i think 80$. The full premium version is about 2380$, and you need a datafeed. Their is plenty of options, google for prognosis website.
Thanks for the info. May I know whether you use it with MetaStock or MT4?
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 09-05-2009, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FormulaOneFan View Post
Thanks for the info. May I know whether you use it with MetaStock or MT4?
So far i am only using MT4 .CSV files. Not as precise as esignal but OK for EW analysis.

Last edited by GreatYves; 09-05-2009 at 08:51 PM.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 09-07-2009, 02:35 AM
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Ok, EURUSD being a top of this downward channel, and it's inability to make a break out show it's weekness. I am very tempted to switch to a range trading method for the week. Elwave show exits area at 4177-4191 for long. It is still 140 pips away, i am not taking any long for now.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 09-07-2009, 04:27 PM
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Downward channel having break up, And no obvious down-move, and very positive Summary Inspector.

Capture.PNG

Let me no choice but to take a long. TP 4385. SL 4323.
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