It has about flatlined and rolled over and died. None of the EA's or manual trading is doing much good this week. Oh well, hopefully next week will be better???

Dave

i agree that.

Which screen you looking at?

Plenty movement on EUR/JPY and Cable. So what a couple days quiet? Not every day can be a party.

Remember, nothing is ever WRONG with the Market but only with the trader. Patience is the key and you must stalk the trade. If it means no trades for 2 days it does not matter.

ONE of the biggest mistake new traders make is over trading. You need not do any more than 1 or two a day and if there is none, go away and have a cup of coffee.....wait....the opportunity will evntually present itself.

If you can see the market is ranging in 20 pip cycle and your EA is not built for it, then for God sake, TURN IT OFF. Don't try extract blood from a stone.

HH

There certainly hasn't been much movement.

This might shed some light on the market:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Essentially, all of the fundamental indicators have been falsified, especially retail sales last week. In the face of such falsehoods, what do we use as a self reinforcing guiding rudder? Last week's answer: nothing. No speculation becomes no movement. Another concept, everyone could be waiting for the ax to fall.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Veto Proof Insanity

I'm thinking this means that Congress wants to pass authority away from the Treasury department and into the IMF. Who wields the World Bank and IMF power? Rockefellers.

David Rockefeller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"For more than a century, ideological extremists at either end of the political spectrum have seized upon well-publicized incidents such as my encounter with Castro to attack the Rockefeller family for the inordinate influence they claim we wield over American political and economic institutions. Some even believe we are part of a secret cabal working against the best interests of the United States, characterizing my family and me as 'internationalists' and of conspiring with others around the world to build a more integrated global political and economic structure - one world, if you will. If that is the charge, I stand guilty, and I am proud of it." - From Rockefeller's "Memoirs", (p.405).

Edit: a few articles later, I had an epiphany. One way to ensure that the Chinese aren't fixing the Yuan prices is to make Yuan free floating. China has $1.2 trillion in US TBonds, a few tons of gold, and is fast approaching an economic bubble. Last month they also installed Reuters equipment for forex. A few weeks later, some Senators make some noise, and the machines will get turned on. If the Yuan goes free floating, it will definitely get stronger vs the USD. This is great for China, bad for US (inflation will skyrocket, wages will continue falling). I wish Senators took economics and not payoffs.

Not only this week if you check volatility with another years. We are in a historic low volatility, and with this comes the bad luck of forex traders.

Practical Economy Lessons by Linuxser:

I´m not Rockefeller, Greenspan, Soros or any other guru. But is clear for me. All factors are combined to benefits a little group of people.

This people needs the current conditions, lowest volatility in currencies to keep borrowing and borrowing, specially the savings of Japaneses people to buy or merge companies in another country. Nobody wants to borrow if there is no certain stability and guarantees in time.

Meanwhile the stupid Fukui keeps rates at 0.5 to benefit? and to benefit...? and to benefit...?. Please, tell us the truth, to benefit our friends who are making a lot of money.
The lie of 0 interest rates to foment consumption it has no credibility because consumption in japan it has been years suspended.

Average investor does not think in carry trades and they can´t afford the task, but they would be needed to pay the future bill as it was in 99/00, after emergency meetings in NY because multimillion funds was in trouble.

Ballard cases (chairman of RBNZ) are interesting, seems Mr Ballard thinks that with 8% rates he can control inflation meanwhile with interventions he can control the value of the currency. And we are nuts off course.

Last one, also, is a good case about how benefit friends.
Before New Zealand raised interest rates to the current 8 the kiwi started an uptrend of near 350 pips. By this time the consensus about a new rate hike was less than 15%.
That´s was followed by an intervention on Sunday open after the currency rallies 80 pips on friday. Don´t you think is strange?

Explanation: insider information. That´s the way markets works for the same people enjoying current market conditions.

Because unless you have a good source and a good pocket it´s almost impossible to change the trend of one currency with 15% of consensus and 3 or 4 economist almost unknown predicting a new hike.

Proofs and facts:
1.It's a fact that market intervention does not work because central banks does not have enough money to win the battle.
2.Interest rates does not help to control inflation. Specially when you don't stop to print money.
In the 90´s the world had lower inflation and lower interest rates.
3.The useless of central banks 1. They´re dinosaurs form the age when a country needs a common place to print money and avoid everybody take the task.
4.The useless of central banks 2. Also, it was the best way to keeps the relation money/gold under control, because money it needed to have gold backup.
5.The useless of central banks 3. One mandatory of central banks are completely independence to make their decisions and hands off of politicians. But, according to current rules, economy health is a government problem. People don't blame Bernake or Trichet if economy goes bad, blame governments. BUT, inflation is a problem of central banks and central banker talks about economy.
How do you suppose a central bank can control inflation with an over valuated currency that it favors imports in detriment of exports without a government hike in import taxes?

Central banks today are designed to keeps the friend business running smoothed. And unfortunately they have high impact in forex maket.

And I keep writing a lot but I do not want to boring you.

But here is one last to connect Ballard, useless of central bankers an friends.
Interventions sell 1 billion to make the currency downs 150 pips, then sell another 1 billion to make the currency downs another 150 pips, and last 500 million for another 50 pips, then run out of money and the pair restart the trend. Hey, I can't see any strategy in doing this, specially knowing how market works. Every intervention is a gift to buy cheap.

If prices are going up it's because traders are accepting to pay higher prices again and again and again. It´s because consensus says there is some uptrend. You buy, set SL and wait.

When consensus goes away and uncertainty comes to the market, trends stop. So, if you, in your central bank chair are worried by the uptrend of your currency it's clear what you have to do.

With the connections and resources of central banks why don´t try to hurt the market, hit where is pain to discourage expectations. Sell 50 millions, hit stops. Imagine, if a retail broker can do that a central bank can make a bloody bath. Sell another 100, hurt again. Do it again. Central banks have enough money to do that. By fifth time none wants to take a positions against what you said.

So, why banker does not do that?

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daraknor & Linuxser,

Thank you both for your contrbutions... great stuff.

The Money Masters - How International Bankers Gained Control of America
Sounds cheezy at first, explains things rather well.

Linuxuser, I'm mulling over your arguments a bit. It sounds like you're stating the Central Banks are no longer market makers. In terms of a direct cash buyout I think that is true. On the other hand, I think they have other tools that are effective.
#1 Misinformation. Claiming retail sales are up 2% when retailers are about to crash seems inaccurate. Unemployment down with peak employment down also seems inaccurate. Since the original data and math is never released (only the conclusions) it is easy to manipulate perception. Some of the original data is released, but generally only in a historic fashion.

#2 News generation. Requires more effort, but if you can announce Group A is now helping Group B, or Group C is going to have a trade status change this will affect the economy. Note that no actual activity or change needs to occur, only the announcement that one is coming. (Like US trade with China.)

#3 Interest rates. The big hand of Central Banks, even though this rate is rarely used. It does set the market for the Overnight Interest Swap secondary market between banks.

#4 Altering "value" in other ways: gold movement, currency used as petrodollar, changing supply in some monetary systems, requiring trade in a specific currency, etc. IMF/World Bank actions probably fall into this category.

#5 Direct investment. As Linuxuser stated above.

I ranked the tools in the order I think they are implemented. Misinformation is probably used frequently, but only temporarily. An increase in the prevalence of independent indicators will reduce the effectiveness of misinformation, although it will always carry some weight.

I didn't include insider trading in the above list, I have no idea where to rank it. My unfounded opinion says that insider trading probably happens a great deal to varying degrees. The effective change from insider trading is probably not initiated by the Central Banks, but by the investment firms surrounding them.

I heard once that the Australian stock market is capitalized at less than half the combined assets of the two largest Australian investment firms. I doubt interest rates (which affect the stock market) are changed by the central bank without some knowledge by the two investment firms.

Geez, some people love the sound of their own voice and have no idea what the hell theyre talking about.

Insider trading? Influencing the market with misinformation?

We are not talking about a penny stock or some monolithic trader like Michael Marcus cornering the soybean market.

Forex is global and so intricately entwined by multiple variables way beyond the dealings of Investment firms (dont make me laugh), and if small countries can barely fluctuate a price for but 30 seconds, the CB will have no long term effect either.

There is only one thing that moves markets of all sorts and that is psychology of the herd, driven by fundamentals (for sure) whilst not being bridled to them. Interest rates do not always have the shocking effect when released because like many things, the herd has factored in the expectation of result weeks (maybe months) before hand, perhaps fearing the worst/hoping for the best and hence it is only when they are surpised that things lose control but only for a short while.

To presume folk at the CB are playing God and somehow reading the worldwide herd mindset as a collective is absolutely ludicrous since we are talking of thousands of massive entities (let alone individual traders) that all have separate agenda's and holding opposing positions because of differing beliefs as to which way the market will go.

It's not exactly zero sum game as many speculate, but it's close enough that everybody is going head to head and it all evens out.

Think about it.

Archer

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Retail Sales Conundrum

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Bear Stearns' REO Listing - A Tip of the Iceberg

I don't have answers, I have musings. I stated my musings with a disclaimer, here is a stronger one:

I don't know what is going on with the market. Strange things are happening. Even stranger is how little they are discussed. Here is a start to a discussion, I'm sure we collectively know more than each of us as quiet individuals. Don't invest or make decisions based on my curious musings.