Hi Bubble,

The example you posted is pretty clear.

In general, I'm wondering if you would consider the trend broken if the price goes lower than the previous trough or would you wait until the price moved back up and made a lower high?

thanks

Thanks Bubble,

I have been reading the pdf you posted from Pring...if I read correctly, he would call it a half signal if only a previous trough had been broken...in terms of a change in trend.

In this particular trade I can see the logic. If price goes below the trough, that decreases the probability of a successful trade.

I was wondering if, when a currency pair continues to rise to higher highs and higher lows, at what point the trend has shifted to down.

Do you consider the trend down when the low of the trough has been broken or do you wait for the price to rise again and make a lower high?

I hope I'm being clear, but it's difficult in a single post.

By the way, just in the time I've been following your thread, I can see what you mean about gaining an advantage.

Long way to go for me though.

Thanks again

Cheers

Bubble,

Thanks very much for the clearer explanation, it makes much more sense when viewing on the 15 min timeframe. I understand where you are coming from now. What made you go long at 63, was it when price left the range, or a candle pattern within the range?


Cheers,
Steve

Bubble,
Do we have an EA for your strategy?
B.

Bubble,

Great chart!!!! I am going through all my charts finding these patterns on as many different time frames as I can. Awesome work.

Hi Bubble,

Your definition of a trend (or direction) on the 240 chart is a bit confusing to me. Most traders would draw a longer term trendline or plot a channel on the 240 chart over say 2 or 3 weeks worth of data and then look at it. If the TL is up the trend is up if it's down the trend is down. Same with the channel. So if I am understanding you correctly, you would find the last swing high (up trend) and if price is below that the direction is down and if it is above the swing high but hasn't formed another peak the direction is up. You also use a trend indicator to help you determine the short term direction. Does that follow the way you determine the trend?

Take a look at the GBP 4 hr chart for example, the current trend (direction) would be down since price hasn't broken the last swing high. Is that correct? Since the overall long term trend is up, would you wait for the up turn in price and a break of the last swing high before entering a trade?

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HI Bubble,
just wanted some feedback about this trade.
Am I understanding what you are saying?

thanks in advance.

Mairangi

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Thanks Bubble,
good thing we have stops eh!

Thanks for your time.

mairangi

bubble: Do you use any indicator(s) to show the peaks and troughs or do you just visually identify them?

I was wondering if a "zigzag" type indicator could be used to identify the peaks and troughs for us then we could use your method(s) for analysis and trading.

PS. I have no desire to use zigzag to trade...just assist in peak/trough identification and labeling.

Bubble,

When you say that "we are almost trading it blind", I take it since we are at price levels that we haven't seen since 1992 or so, that there just isn't any historical data to draw S/R lines from?

Dave