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  #81 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerKhan
svirk, while you are doing tick based tests, can you find out if there are times when the market does not retrace 15-20 pips at all in a 180+pips move on EURUSD. Also the day of the move. I look at MT but unfortunately I donot have M5 or M1 data that far back. thanks,
Hi KillerKhan,

I did some observation on this kind of thing. I found some trades that do not retrace. From the attachments:

buy_9_trades : BUY trade 15 pips, up to 9 trades - 135 pips wide
buy_10_trades : BUY trade 15 pips, up to 10 trades - 150 pips wide
sell_11_trades : SELL trade 20 pips, up to 11 trades - 220 pips wide
sell_11_14_trades : SELL trade 20 pips, up to 11 trades - 220 pips wide. If it missed, it will continue up to 14 trades - 280 pips

From those 4 charts, it seems all of them are cause by news (may be ). So, if we happen to open trade around those times, we are in big trouble

Hope these could be useful

Cheers,
Attached Images
File Type: gif buy_9_trades.gif (9.5 KB, 119 views)
File Type: gif buy_10_trades.gif (11.5 KB, 71 views)
File Type: gif sell_11_trades.gif (10.0 KB, 56 views)
File Type: gif sell_11_14_trades.gif (10.6 KB, 72 views)
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  #82 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 03:34 PM
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Thank you wibitiens for such fantastic finds, I am sure there are alot more moves like that. I did some digging up on those days and the News on those days, here is what I came up with...

Jan 12th 2006:
ECB Interest Rate Decision
Trade Balance
Import Prices m/m
Chicago Fed President Moskow Speaks
Unemployment Claims

June 29 2006:
M3 Money Supply y/y
Gross Domestic Product q/y (f)
GDP Deflator q/y (f)
Unemployment Claims
ECB President Trichet Speaks
FOMC Interest Rate Statement

July 14th 2006:
Retail Sales m/m
Retail Sales excl. Autos m/m

Nov 23 2006:
German GDP q/q (f)
German Ifo Business Climate Index
Current Account
Holiday: Thanksgiving Day (lol while we were eating turkey they banged USD hard)


So seems like News Filter is needed. One thing comes to mind is the NewsTrader EA, but instead of trading during news, we filter it and donot trade during news. Questions is, how many days a year are we going to be trading then. As seems like there is news almost every other day of the week. Also looking at trading graphs, seems like there is usually more activity between wednesday and friday. Meaning the news on wednesdays and fridays hold more weight. Hmmmm

Keep on working on this guys, we are definately in the right direction, at least in the sense of market awareness.
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  #83 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 03:35 PM
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I just made an EA for this and not test yet.
I'm just a beginner coder.
Feel free to modify coding inside.
Attached Files
File Type: ex4 HG.ex4 (5.6 KB, 18 views)
File Type: mq4 HG.mq4 (4.8 KB, 58 views)
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  #84 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 03:50 PM
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For those of you looking for some solid results or statements, Here is login info to my demo forward test I been doing using Velocity 4x account. I started out with 2 pairs, EURUSD and USDJPY with $10k account, using 0.01 as initial lot. The EA is from the Blessing System Thread, it's in the thread somewhere, called Blessing Martingale v5.mq4. After a week of testing I noticed that the required margin was so little that I could add 2 more currencies, so I put USDCHF and GBPUSD on the test as well, now it's been 10 days I think of forward testing and its at around $350 profit or +3500 pips. Here is the login info. to the demo account...

Broker: Velocity 4X
Login: 9009126
Password: m7vehpm
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  #85 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 04:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerKhan
Thank you wibitiens for such fantastic finds, I am sure there are alot more moves like that. I did some digging up on those days and the News on those days, here is what I came up with...

Jan 12th 2006:
ECB Interest Rate Decision

So seems like News Filter is needed. One thing comes to mind is the NewsTrader EA, but instead of trading during news, we filter it and donot trade during news. Questions is, how many days a year are we going to be trading then. As seems like there is news almost every other day of the week. Also looking at trading graphs, seems like there is usually more activity between wednesday and friday. Meaning the news on wednesdays and fridays hold more weight. Hmmmm

Keep on working on this guys, we are definately in the right direction, at least in the sense of market awareness.
Right, most of them are big news. Thanks for checking the dates KillerKhan. About news trading, check this link:
http://www.fxfisherman.com/forums/fo...-calendar.html
It talks about using FXfisherman Economic Calender. It gives pretty good result many times. However, for me, trading news means that I have to stay on my computer while news starts. I did it a few days ago during the FOMC news and Home Sales news. It goes up over 80 pips in just 30 minutes

May be we can design an EA that will do martiangle system during "safe" period and switch to news trading a few moment before news. Saying is easy :P It's just an idea

Cheers,
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  #86 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 04:16 PM
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Here is something to look into. MqlDev has created an EXE that will automatically download the news from forexfactory.com and put it in .csv format. Then he has an indicator created that reads that csv file.
http://www.forex-tsd.com/tools-utili...ghlight=mqldev

So, we can incorporate these two things into this EA. Silpy take the code from the Indicator and slap it in this EA, and put a Trade = True and Trade = False statement. A day before news that is medium importance or higher importance switch the Trade = False. So whatever open positions we have, when these positions hit TP then look for variable Trade, if Trade = False then donot trade anymore. Now after news is over, and the time on the news has to match your broker's time otherwise you are stopping and starting trades at wrong time lol, after news i over then you look at the difference between bid and ask of your chart that you are trading, e.g. EURUSD. You pre-set difference between Bid and Ask as lets say 3 pips. And after news you check difference between Bid and Ask and if difference between Bid and Ask is more than the preset of 3 then you wait some more. When the difference is 3 or less, you start trading again.

This only pertains to brokers that widen their spread and is not using fixed spread. I use FXDD so I am thinking of my live account.

I usually think faster than I can type and sometimes I think I typed something but I did not, if you guys donot understand what I said just above plz post. Thanks,
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  #87 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 04:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KillerKhan
Here is something to look into. MqlDev has created an EXE that will automatically download the news from forexfactory.com and put it in .csv format. Then he has an indicator created that reads that csv file.
http://www.forex-tsd.com/tools-utili...ghlight=mqldev
...
I usually think faster than I can type and sometimes I think I typed something but I did not, if you guys donot understand what I said just above plz post. Thanks,
That's a good idea to stop trading one day before news, then wait until the red news over. May be it is also important to filter the red news itself. From the post by yeoeleven in 10points3 a few days ago, he mentioned the most volatile news. May be we should filter which red news that are really need to be considered. Otherwise, like this week, from forex factory, everyday contains all red

Cheers,

Last edited by wibitiens; 03-28-2007 at 04:38 PM.
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  #88 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 05:04 PM
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...

interesting you guys should be talking about news trades. ive been demoing and live trading the terminator since sept '06, only using usdcad and i have been successful up until last weeks news on cad. i didnt realize there was news that day and the cad moved down 255 pips; which is very rare but took almost all my profit. if we can avoid all RED news, at least on the cad, ive seen the pair go as far as 10 levels and not more. and i ve notice that news day, if i had waited at the end of that hour and started the EA, it went 9 levels down and turned around for profit. news is definitely the culprit, at least the volatile ones. i ignore the orange and yellow ones.
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  #89 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 05:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by criss73
interesting you guys should be talking about news trades. ive been demoing and live trading the terminator since sept '06, only using usdcad and i have been successful up until last weeks news on cad. i didnt realize there was news that day and the cad moved down 255 pips; which is very rare but took almost all my profit. if we can avoid all RED news, at least on the cad, ive seen the pair go as far as 10 levels and not more. and i ve notice that news day, if i had waited at the end of that hour and started the EA, it went 9 levels down and turned around for profit. news is definitely the culprit, at least the volatile ones. i ignore the orange and yellow ones.
Cad? Last Week? Many people got it, including me I closed 2 of my demo account that were just opened a few days before because of this "good" news

Cheers,
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  #90 (permalink)  
Old 03-28-2007, 05:18 PM
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The flip side of the coin is that we donot want to avoid all red news. I mean lets be honest, duing news is when this type of system really makes profit, but at the same time also looses. So I think main thing to do is make a list of "type" of news that definately effect the currency pairs in play. Simple Google search shows there are 5 news from the USD side we need to keep an eye on. They are listed in order of importance.

1: Non Farm Payrolls – Unemployment
First Friday of the month at 8:30am EST

2: FOMC Interest Rate Decisions
8 meetings scheduled per year

3: Trade Balance
Generally released around the middle of the second month following the reporting period

4: CPI – Consumer Price Index
Monthly - around the 13th of each month at 8:30am EST

5: Retail Sales
Monthly - around the 11th of each month at 8:30am EST


Can anyone compile a list as shown above for EURO? Thanks,
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