Does anyone out there have a good system to pick MACD Divergence calls in a large trending market? For example during a day when the GBP/USD moves 100+ pips in a direction, there is usually a few false divergence calls. You'll see divergence, then it'll continue in that same direction, often giving 2-5 false divergence calls until it reaches the top of the trend and reverses.

Does anyone have a clear/simple way to determine if a divergence signal is good?



Like in this image, there was a divergence call, then price continued upward and created a second divergence call. Is there a clear way to trade this so I do not take the first divergence call? Something that is fast?

Divergences are not signals for entering trades. You must understand bearish divergence only appears on Bull Market so you must view bearish divergence as a confirmation of bull market. Same as bullish divergence. Hope this helps.

I understand what you are saying, but traders use divergence all day long to help pick entry points for trades and trend reversals. Maybe signal was the wrong term to use, but divergence is certainly used to enter trades (as far as I've been told and taught, but I've been wrong many times before).


BTW I don't want to get into a long debate about divergence in this thread.

Can anyone help me isolate the false divergence from the ones that reverse?

Here is another example of what I'm talking about. After the first divergence, price continued up, after the second one, price dropped out the bottom.

Use some tool for confirmation, like trendline break... it helps.

Attached Images

false-divergence2a.jpg (77.0 KB, 823 views)

any time frame of 1HR and below is not safe. The divergence will be there and market might respond by 5-10 pips and then continue the trend. The previous suggestion of using trendlines is also very useful. If you notice back, all the divegence of 4hr on gbpusd have made quite some pips. It's also not safe to use divergence method on any base currency with a yen attached to it. Hope this suggestion helps.
Strings.

I actually do that myself. Its very effective.

hi Switchjohnny...try to give some input...hope this help u.

watch the histogram & the zero line...if the divergence occured & the histogram remain below/above zero line, that will give u true divergence.

also alert to "hidden divergence"....in yur 1st chart, after the regular divergence happened, the "hidden divergence" came...that was the sign that market will continue the trend not reverse.

so beware, use the divergence as an "early sign" not a place to enter the market.

just my 2 cent.

do not rush when the divergence occured,

I agreed with Thruline use some indicators to help u and wait
for several next bar, my idea use fibo numbers (1,2,3,5,... next bar)

if I'm not wrong, I see 3 times divergence in your chart


zen

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Switchjonny,
In addition to divergence you need to understand the rhythm of the particular market and filter with Stochastic (8,3,3) would help a lot.

Divergence:
with more experience you can use divergence on 4h charts as well as on 5 minutes, BUT: the line on your chart is incorrect: the divergence cannot have any bumps; if you have a bump, change the timeframe or wait for the next train.

If you really have to take such trades as on your chart, the 1st divergence ocurred 8 bars earlier, but then pulled back a little bit (as usual!!) and is not worth the risk.

In fact, I would have identified the first divergence as "hidden divergence" with higher lows on the price chart but slightly lower low on the second indicator low, which then would be a confirmation for a following UP movement.

The second trade is still early but seems to be valid, not b/c of visible divergence, rather because
- you have a rejection on the MACD signal+zero line
- the signal line is down
- you can see a small double top formation

Btw: trading below 5 minutes without being near or on the floor is dangerous.
I would have waited 6-10 more bars, until the last low breaks - if I would trade 1 minutes ..

Cheers!

For example i use stochastic oscilator for divergence with medianline
but you can aply macd on medianline and see how works
I post a image to see how powerfull is divergence with medianline and great confirmation for divergence when ML is hit or uper/lower MLH and there is divergence

Attached Images

divergence_211.gif (34.1 KB, 648 views)

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