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Nobody said anything about a losing strategy. I'm talking about winning strategies that occasionally have a big loss. Firebird EA for example. I made 500 pips on a demo on that one last week. Others' longer term results bear that out. The achilles heel of this EA is that about 3x a year (according to another thread) it will go nuts and blow out an account.
By taking profits out consistently, when this happens, so what?
As far as I know the martingaling EA's like 10p3 are losing when they don't use martingaling?
As far as I know the martingaling EA's like 10p3 are losing when they don't use martingaling?
I don't think so. In the threads I read, they were winning pretty consistently in a ranging market. The trouble was in a trend the martingaling would keep adding trades until the account was blown out.
In fact, the general idea behind the Martingale EA's was that while Martingale will eventually lose in a gambling scenario with 50% odds, with Forex, your edge puts those odds in your favor.
Last edited by TraderGeek; 04-24-2007 at 12:27 AM.
I don't think so. In the threads I read, they were winning pretty consistently in a ranging market. The trouble was in a trend the martingaling would keep adding trades until the account was blown out.
In fact, the general idea behind the Martingale EA's was that while Martingale will eventually lose in a gambling scenario with 50% odds, with Forex, your edge puts those odds in your favor.
I have to add this on. Traditional martingale will never fail. If you can fold an A4 paper by half for 40 times. Tell me the thickness of it then. Nobody did it before? Ok, the answer is, when you fold an A4 paper for 40 times, you'll be able to reach to the SUN from where you standing now. When will you lose your trade? Correct, when you're not affordable to fold it for the next progression( you've used up your margin), then your broker will help you to decide where to stop. You want a long winning streak? Prepare a multi million account and start trading with 0.01lot, change the pip step to 50pips for the next progression. You could win it for the rest of your life. But, what is the point? You have multi million, but you're looking for 10 bucks profit? Take profit is not the part of the martingale rule. Yes, that we know. But this is not gamble, we take it as trading discretion, or call it whatever you want. Take and bail whilst in profit. Walk away from GIANT trend, instead of keep doubling up. Admit the loss with max trade. Dont be stubborn to follow the traditional martingale rule. You'll end up set yourself on fire! Crash and burn since we dont have bottomless pocket. Think about it before you act.
I have to add this on. Traditional martingale will never fail. If you can fold an A4 paper by half for 40 times. Tell me the thickness of it then. Nobody did it before? Ok, the answer is, when you fold an A4 paper for 40 times, you'll be able to reach to the SUN from where you standing now. When will you lose your trade? Correct, when you're not affordable to fold it for the next progression( you've used up your margin), then your broker will help you to decide where to stop. You want a long winning streak? Prepare a multi million account and start trading with 0.01lot, change the pip step to 50pips for the next progression. You could win it for the rest of your life. But, what is the point? You have multi million, but you're looking for 10 bucks profit? Take profit is not the part of the martingale rule. Yes, that we know. But this is not gamble, we take it as trading discretion, or call it whatever you want. Take and bail whilst in profit. Walk away from GIANT trend, instead of keep doubling up. Admit the loss with max trade. Dont be stubborn to follow the traditional martingale rule. You'll end up set yourself on fire! Crash and burn since we dont have bottomless pocket. Think about it before you act.
Regards
David
Ahahaha - do you know anything about mathematics? Martingaling makes a strategy less profitable (in terms of Expected Value), because it adds more risk for Gamblers Ruin. A lot of the rest of your post is just about compounding.
By the way - it is physically impossible to fold a A4 over 15 times.
Ahahaha - do you know anything about mathematics? Martingaling makes a strategy less profitable (in terms of Expected Value), because it adds more risk for Gamblers Ruin. A lot of the rest of your post is just about compounding.
By the way - it is physically impossible to fold a A4 over 15 times.
Cant see the arguement now. When you failed to fold the A4 paper over the 15times, then you blew up your account at the same time. Double sided sword on using martingale. Either the market never force you to open too many double down positions, or you choose your edge of lossing(your 15times folded A4). By the way, to fold A4 paper 40 times is just an example. You can measure the thickness of A4 paper and do power them 40 times 2.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProgrammersTeam
A lot of the rest of your post is just about compounding.
You read my post properly? We're not talking about traditional martingale. And yes, we're also looking for compounding way out, cost averaging. You have any better idea besides - JUST GIVE IT UP? I did like to learn about it if you have 1. No offence. Just discussion.
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