I can't understand what is going on. Cable usually sleeps this time of the night... (10pm NY time). However, for the last few hours it has been thrashing round like Nessie caught in a shrimper's net. Usually this is because some kind of fundie event. Any one has any explanations?

Might be some early preemptive action in advance of some important USD news events tomorrow. Someone probably knows something we don't. My guess is that the USD news ain't gonna be that great.

Bluto,

I was reading somewhere there is a lot of "carry trade" unwinding going on. I am not sure if that has something to do with GBPUSD, which can be considered a cross of GBPJPY and USDJPY.

Anyway, is just curious about this weird behavior. If you are trading a range trading system, you would have made a killing. However, that is looking at the past events on the charts.

4hour chart still ok. errmmm.... but it killed 1 of my sub account due to ranging in big ways. The rest of the account still surviving, breakingeven and mild profitting. Gotta fund in and widen the pipstep this time


Regards,

David

I'd agree...and you don't typically regard Cable as something to trade with a ranging model although it has been doing a fair bit of ranging since the beginning of the year. Maybe it's tired of handing out it's candy to all of the turtles!

Hi'ya David.....wazzup!?

Bluto,

That is an interesting observation on the Cable. It is a trend followers dream.

Swissy used to be like that around 2002-03. However, it has gradually gotten worse, as USD had weakened. The loss of volatility has caused its intraday ranges to shrink and make it unfriendly to trend systems. However, recently, Swissy seems to be starting to trend a little better. Nothing in terms of trend following EAs to make money on, but something to keep an eye on.

I hope forex becomes more and more popular. That will mean Euro will become more and more whippy and range trading can make money there. As such Euro is whippy, like the SnP eminis almost.

It is fun to watch the charts, it is addictive.

Where have you been? I sent you email, did you check em? I've attached my EA on it. Have a good laugh at it

Regards,

David

pssstttt....

you're right about the carry-trade, it explains swissy too

As a follow up to my observations on the Cable, please see the attached results on a demo account and corresponding backtests. The EA is a simple breakout system that trades the four majors. I grouped the results by pair on the demo account results so that the results from GBPUSD can be easily compared... between the forward tests and the backtests. You can see that the backtest and forward test match reasonably well. Going back you can see how well Cable was behaving last year. This year it is acting weirdly. Thank God for Yen that the system is still positive.

The point of my posting is not to brag, as there is not much to brag with an EA that makes 2 to 3% every month, but to show how whippy Cable has become. If it was not being this bad, then this system would be making 5 to 10% a month. It just risks 2% on each trade, so a very conservative set up.

Attached Files

Temp.rar (56.6 KB, 23 views)