If we could accurately (or at least 80% of time) forecast the direction of the DAY, life would be a lot easier.

Could we (no offense meant, but preferably "seasoned" traders) collectively try and find a "better" way of trying to determine the overall direction of the DAY by posting what we have been using to help us decide which direction we "feel" after our analysis, the trades may go for the DAY, irrespective of Fundemental Announcements.

What I am using at present (and I feel this is not adequate, hence this posting):

1. DAY-Chart:

a. What does the previous day's candle suggest?
b. Is the previous candle showing strong momentum? (how do we define that momentum?)
c. Is there any reason why this "momentum" cannot continue? Such as i.e. that the candle has come to close on the 38% Fib level or at major Trendline, etc.
d. Do the wicks play any roll here, for the wick represents actual price during that day. So, if the wick is long, does it mean that the opposing forces (Bulls / Bears) are winning and may therefore change the direction today?
e. Maybe the Candle is already showing that the marketforces are "turning the tide" where as the indicators/oscillators may not yet.
f. Fib-levels.
g. The usual EMAs and Oscillators such as EMA-8 and 21 plus the 100-SMA that is generally used by the Banks, etc.
h. Personally I find the "NewTrend" highly effective, but at this stage I don't want to suggest that what I use is beneficial, as I am clearly still looking for improvements.

2. 4-HRLY_Chart

Much in the same way as for the Daily.

3. HOURLY-Chart.

Any positive developments will be much appreciated. Thanking you in advance.

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"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing" The Tao of Warren Buffett.

"Avoiding mistakes, makes people STUPID and having to be RIGHT, makes you OBSOLETE." Robert Kiyosaki.

Hi Valeo,

"Daily direction....."

This is really the $64,000 question, the holy grail of all traders.

"I am clearly still looking for improvements."

I believe we all are still looking, I certainly am!

So what have I been doing? At the moment I am following JD's wave action as described in What Really Works From One Professional

I haven't been a great follower of wave theory but this thread is interesting. It does seem very similar to the Big Ben strategy for GBP/USD, which is described in several forums.

What I have abandoned is MACD, MA's, most indicators that appear here for MT4.

MT4 indicators that I do like are FisherYurick and the StepMAStoch as used in the Nina thread. There are several of each so pick those that suit you.

I will follow this thread with interest....

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Good trading to all...............

fairwind

Anyone got a working BigBen indicator please?
I don't want an EA, just the indicator for MT4.

Thanks
Wayne

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FatCat

For me, it’s much easier to accurately forecast the direction of the market over the next say 8 – 12 periods rather then the next candle. All signs may be that the market should move up, and more often then not it will, you may however have a red candle day or two before it starts moving up again. I take most of my trades off the 1 hour chart. Like you, the first thing I do is look at the daily to see where we are in the bigger picture, and then I move down to the hourly chart to see if there is a potential signal coming up soon. If there isn’t, then I won’t look at that particular pair again. There are seven or eight different pairs that I keep an eye on and I usually get 3 maybe 4 signals a day. Some days I may not get any, so I don’t take any trades on those days. Like you, I also look at candlesticks. I think they play a very important role. Much more important then the crossing of two moving averages. If someone is looking at, and trying different ema crossings as their trading strategy for becoming a successful trader then try a different strategy. I also read in one of the threads someone asking for an indicator that tells you the slope of the moving average because he had read somewhere that if the 34 ema is flat that you should not take signals because the market is in chop. If you need a 34 ema or an indicator that tells you the slope of that moving average to reassure you that the market is in chop then I honestly don’t think that trading is for you. Price could be trending down all day, and then if we get a slight pullback and price closes above the 34 ema, then the ema would always be either flat or slightly rising. I trade price patterns and candlestick patterns. Sure, I also use a couple of indicators, but not as a trigger to jump on a trade, but rather as an alert that something may be coming up soon. I don’t use any lagging indicators, price is the best indicator because it tells me what is happening right now, not what happened 34 candles ago. I use a couple of leading indicators because they alert me that price may rise or drop. For me only 2 things move a market either up or down. Major news announcements, and the number of buyers compared to the number of sellers. That’s all. Nothing else can move any market. If there is a large demand on something, anything, price will do up. If there is too much supply of something and not enough demand, then price will come down. So its only news announcements and peoples psychology that moves a market. The best way to make money in trading is to work out how traders would react when they see a market move one way and anticipate this and jump on at the right time, and then jumping off when the buying frenzy starts dying down and they start taking their profits. Much easier said then done, I know but it works better for me then having 73 different indicators and waiting for all of them to confirm.

to take a trade I have about 6 -7 templates, sometimes I use a naked chart.
for breakout and trend direciton its rather simple , I have two setups
this is one of them the other one is a private , I wont explain a lot a picture worth a 1000 word

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