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When you play roulette the ball can go Red or Black, there's no way to know ecxactly where it's gonna go. Even if the ball fell 15 times in a row on red, it doesn't mean that the next time there's more chances of it going black, there's alway 50% chances of it going either way. Indicators are based on past history and there's no way to know if the pip is gonna go up or down based on passed history because well, it's in the passed and indicators cannot foresee the future. IMHO indicators are there to calculate the odds of future movement. The trick is to find an indicator that can calculate those odds the best. I'm starting to think that trading forex based on the news would give me better odds and I wonder if people trading forex with indicators or EA ONLY can be are successful or one has to trade using the news as well ?
Please start the discussion
__________________
I'd rather be scared to death than bored to death
What indicator that calculate the odd and what factors that should be taken account into?
So far we have been another indicator as confirmation for the market movement prediction. We also have to considering some indicator that applied best in trending market or sideways market. It's harrrdddd....
As for mine I have been using pivot point, MA and Stochastic. Just a basic indicator.
Would love to get an indicator that could give better odds. Especially if you could give me the best one.
It means: many indicators can predict the future but all the future lines (lines etc drawing to the future) and re-painting.
Not history.
Future.
Indicators which is showing you the support/resistancelines for tomorrow; indicators which is showing you the price for tomorrow by price lines on the chart; and so on.
When you play roulette the ball can go Red or Black, there's no way to know ecxactly where it's gonna go. Even if the ball fell 15 times in a row on red, it doesn't mean that the next time there's more chances of it going black, there's alway 50% chances of it going either way. Indicators are based on past history and there's no way to know if the pip is gonna go up or down based on passed history because well, it's in the passed and indicators cannot foresee the future. IMHO indicators are there to calculate the odds of future movement. The trick is to find an indicator that can calculate those odds the best. I'm starting to think that trading forex based on the news would give me better odds and I wonder if people trading forex with indicators or EA ONLY can be are successful or one has to trade using the news as well ?
Please start the discussion
I would like to approach the forex market game as a probability game. It is also like the tossing of a coin – Head or Tail - 50/50. Forex markets have also 2 directions ie (1) little movement and (2) directional movement – 50/50 except that for forex, currency pairs do not stay sideways for long, so that it is either UP or DOWN. The odds are now split into, say, 25% for sideway/range market, and the remaining 75% divided between Up and Down trends.
Market direction is determined by supply and demand. I prefer to: (a) avoid range markets, (b) watch the change from Up to Down OR Down to Up. It is what is happening NOW that tells me the direction, not forecasts. Here I prefer to use fibonacci channel to draw the up/down trends and watch carefully whether the price moves into a down channel from an Up channel (initiate a Sell) or vice versa.
Indicators like moving average, oscillators, stochastics, etc. act as confirmations of the change in direction.
I hope the above thoughts are helpful to you. (Unfortunately as I am new to forums, I do not as yet know how to attach charts into my postings.)
Well moving averages don't "repaint" nor does the MACD or stochastic or, come to think of it, the PSAR nor the...... well you get my point.
They simply help in showing elements which your brain (or EA) will recognize as past recurrences and thus, future probabilities. Not certainties, but higher probabilities.
Oh and kenneth 37, there are several ways of posting images, one of the simplest being clicking on "Manage Attachments" below by scrolling down when you're writing a post.
may i simply interject that FOREX IS NOT RANDOM --- there is no 50/50 contained within as it is constantly proven that one can set a TP for a move and hit that TP each and every time.
Indicators are nothing more than a graphic representation of price movement --- the candles themselves are ONE form of movement (and many schools of thought on using JUST THEM for trading) and indicators are ANOTHER ---- given that forex is NOT random, one can draw certain conclusions from the CORRECT indicators and forward testing inevitably proves those conclusions to be correct.
Forex is a trading instrument that trends BETTER than most any other, and it doesnt like to give up that trend until the price reaches a specific support or resistance point, which is measurable and predictable.
what you see in the market is DIRECTION changes within trends (until the trend is completed, obviously) and these changes come on measurable intraday, intraweek and intra month (yearly also) points that can ALSO be charted with reasonable accuracy.
what prevents most from understanding how it all fits together is LACK OF BOTH KNOWLEDGE AND EXPERIENCE, which is why the pros have got you beaten before you even start, BUT this KNOWLEDGE can be learned if one chooses, and once armed with it, the whole landscape of this game CHANGES
Ive watched traders go from 40% winners (thats 60% LOSERS) TO 80 and 90% WINNERS by simply being instructed as to very obvious situations in the market.
Forex is rather simple, once you get your head looking at it correctly --- that doesnt mean its always EASY, but indeed its simple !
enjoy and trade well
mp
__________________ KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE are the handmaidens of the riches of forex, and i buy them roses every day, with many a thank you !
Mp --- indicators do a whole lot more than you think !
in the standard world of trading, not including voodoo, smoke and mirrors or astrology, there are only two reliable methods of measuring price action -- one is the candles or bars themselves and the other are the indicators, which are NOTHING more than a GRAPHICAL manner of representing the candles movement.
indicators are designed to measure a few different things such as Trend, Cycle strength, overbought and oversold, historic support and resistance, direction and based on these situations, they are also used as a predictive device.
Derivitives, commodities, Forex and Indicis, unlike equities, tend to TREND in ways that lend themselves to extremely positive predictions of support and resistance --- not to say that one can "easily" chart when a price breaks into new ground but if its within "normal" parameters, support and resistance figures along with a few easily understood indicators have proven repeatedly to have an uncanny accuracy, most likely because the banks are operating in exactly the same manner -- they KNOW where resistance lies and they move the price to that point, assuming no grand news comes along to ALTER THE PRESENT TREND.
If news DOES come along, like today with Europe (which reflects a turn away from interest in the dollar and now we should watch the EURO more closely) inevitably it will move the price OUT of the trend, but "normally" it will also RETURN back to trend, because forex doesnt like to go off exploring on its own too often --- todays activity MAY WELL be telling us that all the interest in US news is now switching to the EURO because thats the way the market tends to work -- traders get bored with one thing and move on to the next, and a very short time will tell us if this is the case here !
one can debate this subject forever, but a few well placed trend lines, an indicator that reveals buying and selling, and the experience to use them do more for your bottom line than all the water cooler conversations in the world.
enjoy and trade well
mp
__________________ KNOWLEDGE and EXPERIENCE are the handmaidens of the riches of forex, and i buy them roses every day, with many a thank you !
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