Howdy Gang,

We all have a different view on the way we perceive the market. There are an infinite number of ways one could go about defining what the market actually is, does, or means.

What I'm interested in finding out is how many of us (based on personal perspective) believe that the market is random, systematic, or a combination of both. Please take a vote in the poll, and leave an insightful comment as you see fit.

Tootles,
MM

I see it as a combination of both. Price patterns do exist, which could make the market seem systematic. Then again there are always unforeseen events (economic etc...) that can cause the market to go haywire. Take for instance support and resistance lines. There are times where the price will hit a support or resistance level, and reverse, like predicted. Then there are times when the market blows through all support or resistance and does what it would like.

I think market is not random ,it has a repeated pattern , many pattern exist , we must recognize it

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Forex Indicators Collection

I believe that its mostly random, however those random events create situations that experienced operators may choose to respond to and exploit on a strategic level, and its the effects of those responses that lead to systematic patterns that are exploited through technical analysis.

Tootles

This is a very important topic and one that every one should examine if they want to be profitable. When looking at what one beleives of the markets a larger view should be taken then with just price.

I have a problem with your use of the word 'systematic', however. You should more define that term as it can be interperated differently.

What about price pressistance.

When you have an offshore storm headed to land the weather(wo)men do not predict its direction, but project its directional pressistance and speed. The further out (in time) the projections the wider its margin of error. The variation is determened by the square root of time and time by its speed. Those projections are made given the assumtion that both will hold steady. If a change in these occures then the projections must change as well.

Can the markets be predict with any degree of of certianty? I think not, price is to random and too many events remain unknown, for that. But one can get quite good at projecting price pressistance based on given assumtions. One is never wrong with projections as it is deturmined by data alone. Will your projections always be correct? No, but you will know it when things change and be out of a possition before any real damage can be done to your account.

Keit

Price moves in a 100% random way.

Many people like to beleive that it is not random because it would make them feel a bit foolish. Because they are running after price with all these tools and indicators and patern recognitions.

It is correct that there are many events that influence the markets. But that is in the same way as a croupier spins the ball on a roulette table.

One can recognize whatever kind of paterns: resistance, support, triangles, H&S, flags, channels, fibo's, divergence, elliot waves..etc...etc.
You have 50% that they gonna do what they so called predict to do and 50%that they fail.
A good example is pivot lines and fibo lines. People who look at them at first are exsited and say:...wow 3 times today price came precisly to that line and then bounced up again. But they forget to say that as many times price went true the lines as they never existed.

An other good experiment in this random theorie is the persistence rule. Ex. if today it is a sunny day then the chance that tomorrow will be a again a sunny day is bigger then it will be a rainy day...and vice versa.
I have done a lot of test on this rule with the help of metastock professional. If the current bar is an up bar then go long on the next bar or vice versa. Over a longer period of time (where you have as much bullish and bearish market) the results were clear that this is a not working system (B/E). On what ever kind of time frame.

There is not one moment or point on price where you can say with a probability higher then 50% that price would move up or down. Not with news not with paterns not with indicators.



Regards...iGoR


PS. Mr. Market you gave one of the best evidences that price moves randomly with an excel sheet (in attachement)
You can see whatever kind of patern in it and as much supports and resistances as you want. There is no difference between the charts of that excel sheet or "real" price action.

Attached Files

Coin Toss Stock Prices and Chart.zip (33.5 KB, 48 views)

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Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

I've been holding off on posting a response, and voting in the poll... I didn't want to create a "bias" amongst other members who have not yet voted. However, after Igor's post I feel that I must chime in.

As far as my perception is concerned, the market is (as Igor put it) 100% random. A trend is nothing more than a random sequence of consecutive up or down price movements. A range is the same movement without the chronological sequence.

At the end of the day, you're either looking at a pull back or a reversal... it is beyond anyone to be able to tell me which it is - until it happens.

Great insights from everybody.

MM

We should see a market in some TF , in a smaller TF We found that's very difficult to figure out coz there're so many up down shape so we called it random.but in higher TF there's a few up down shape so we can see clearly the pattern, so I think market is not 100% random coz here we;re still developing a system . Remember market is a function of time and value not only value .

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Forex Indicators Collection

The market is definitely NOT 100% random. It may seem like that because people do not see the relationships of the price movements from their own perspective. Many traders are on the noise level, and the predictable movements are on a different level.

When the easy Yen Carry trade was no longer profitable for the risk, you saw the return and subsequent rise of the Yen long term. Those are huge forces at play, and market participants either obey it or get destroyed. Obviously these events do not occur very often, but they are want really move markets, correlations, interest rates...etc etc.

So price is moving from A to B, in between how it gets there is random movement. But the drive from A to B is still fundamentally driven (trend).

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my opinion or any other one here with all due respect is worthless .... many have done a phd research to answer such a question, many theories have been discussed ... and at the end the results will be the market is a mixed

let me give an example and any body with few Grey brain cells will understand it ... what drive the market , banks , economics , people , computers ?
all of which have cycles , for example banks close at sometime , people have times where they need to stop trading and go to lunch , computers are programmed based on algorithm and once we say algorithm that means there is a cycle.

The interact between cycles create the random behavior, exactly like microwaves , and signals ..... for example there are lots of signals in the air if you have the right filter " an RLC circuit " you will be able to see patterns in the signals and you could tune in to your favorte radio station.

I could look around and attach papers on this subject but do I have to reinvent the wheel , the market have cycles and the interact between those cycles makes it look to those who can't filter them as a random ...

at the end i don't care as long as I make money the market can be defined to whatever people wants ......

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