Welcome to Forex-TSD!, one of the largest Forex forums worldwide, where you will be able to find the most complete and reliable Forex information imaginable.
From the list below, select the forum that you want to visit and register to post, as many times you want. It’s absolutely free. Click here for registering on Forex-TSD.
Exclusive Forum
The Exclusive Forum is the only paid section. Once you subscribe, you will get free access to real cutting-edge Trading Systems (automated and not), Indicators, Signals, Articles, etc., that will help and guide you, in ways that you could only imagine, with your Forex trading.
Elite Section
Get access to private discussions, specialized support, indicators and trading systems reported every week.
Advanced Elite Section
For professional traders, trading system developers and any other member who may need to use and/or convert, the most cutting-edge exclusive indicators and trading systems for MT4 and MT5.
I just made this calculator. But there is an assumption base on Normal Distribution of price movement. I just want to hear comments about this idea, please don't really use it for your trading. All comments are welcome.
I just made this calculator. But there is an assumption base on Normal Distribution of price movement. I just want to hear comments about this idea, please don't really use it for your trading. All comments are welcome.
I like the approach, an online application based on Flash. Good job.
Assume the prices appeared in a time period are normally distributed. Then we can model the probability that a price goes over the take profit line. On the other side of the distribution is the probability a price goes below the stop lose line. The offset is to specify skewness of the distribution lean toward the take profit side. If the offset is 0, this means probability of movements to either directions are distributed equally, and we really just have 50/50 chance on either side.
The swf file is still on my site working fine. And another illustration. Assume the prices appeared in the next 4 hours based on historical data are normally distributed. And the next 4 hours bar tall on average is 30 pips, the the movement range is 30pips. To calculate the offset, we can sum up, in a long period time of historical data, the ups and downs in that time frame, movement toward to the side we going to buy is positive, and movements toward to the losing side is negative. Then if the summation is positive we know there is a tendency the market move to the winning side, vice versa. And divide the summation with number ups and downs or bars we used for summation. Then we have an average tendency, that is the offset.
This is quite interesting. At first I couldnt understand why the probabilities didnt sum to a value of one, but I assume its due to the setting of the movement range, so at an extreme, if you set a target and stop of 100 pips, but only specified a 20 pip movement range, you'd end up with zero probability of either being hit. That's pretty neat
I also like the mean offset bias feature
Now I'm going to have to spend the rest of the day brushing up on stats and reverse engineering this thing
This is quite interesting. At first I couldnt understand why the probabilities didnt sum to a value of one, but I assume its due to the setting of the movement range, so at an extreme, if you set a target and stop of 100 pips, but only specified a 20 pip movement range, you'd end up with zero probability of either being hit. That's pretty neat
I also like the mean offset bias feature
Now I'm going to have to spend the rest of the day brushing up on stats and reverse engineering this thing
Sum of the two horizontal bars in the chart do not up 1, because they are not covering all the possibilities. There are three possibilities in trading, first price goes over tp; second price goes below sl; and the third possibility is price stays in between the movement range doesn't reach either side. I decided not to show the third possibility on the horizontal bar chart.
The swf file is still on my site working fine. And another illustration. Assume the prices appeared in the next 4 hours based on historical data are normally distributed. And the next 4 hours bar tall on average is 30 pips, the the movement range is 30pips. To calculate the offset, we can sum up, in a long period time of historical data, the ups and downs in that time frame, movement toward to the side we going to buy is positive, and movements toward to the losing side is negative. Then if the summation is positive we know there is a tendency the market move to the winning side, vice versa. And divide the summation with number ups and downs or bars we used for summation. Then we have an average tendency, that is the offset.
Linear Mode
