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There's plenty of trades with the trend to be had.
Swissie short now is an example. From 1.1105
Not trying to blow my own trumpet here so don't worry. It's been a tough afternoon to be honest and this was a lucky one.
Look on a 15m or a 60m or a 4hr chart and this call was eccentric. Look on a 5m chart and it becomes a bit clearer.
One thing I want to bring to the attention of everyone is NOT the break itself, but the trajectory of the 15m 20ema acting as resistance.
Yes I got the timing a little bit wrong on this but because of the angle of the 15m 20 this was one for the south-side.
Ignore the black trendline. This is just showing the angle, the curvature of that particular 20ema.
Only a 50 pip move but learn how to do that 4 times a day allowing 2 right and 2 wrong with the losers costing 30, say and you have yourself 40 pips profit.
Do that each day x 22 in a month and you're on the road to never ever worrying about another thing in your life.
So when you have studied the exercise from earlier, then now study the shape of the m.a's for a bit.
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
Bill, what I usually do is I take half position out then move to B.E., there is always a chance that you will get stopped out so do cover your bases. Or just take the whole position and enter again at a suitable setup.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Honest Bill
Well this baby went +40 by this morning creeping down nicely. I moved my s/l to b/e thinking 40 pips is plenty away. But, then what happens?The whole football thing kicks in again......
Euro put up a good fight against USD, but USD kicks CHF about the pitch.....the result is Euro beats Swissie hands down and I get stopped out at break even.
It might be worth a go again, but the stop loss would have to be above today's Pivot.
If the strategy is difficult to follow it's not because you are stupid, it's because trading is difficult. 98% fail.
They fail because they have either bought a holy grail from one of the many sharks or they have failed to learn about risk managememnt or even the most basic techniques.
What I will attempt to do here is one post and one post only each day on how to get to grips with the KNOWING for yourself aspects.
Don't just read these lessons once. Read them 5 times them put them into paractise by backtesting your favourite pairs.
The first of these lessons involves stripping !!!!!!
Oh yes, the naked traders are back. Scorpion and Rockdrive will be pleased !
What I mean here is actually to take everything off your chart. Strip it until it is bare of candles and just has the smalles two m.a's, the one that runs through the middle of the candles and the pink 20.
Notice what happens when one is on one side of the other, then what happens when it crosses.
Once the 5 move down over the 20 does the 20 keep going up or does it tend to turn more often than not and begin to head down.
These are the questions that will make you a successful trader and by starting from scratch with just a couple of m.a's there is not too much clutter, not too much information to decipher.
Once you have studied that then add back the 50sma and repeat the process, asking "why does this do this and why does that do that"
What happens when the 20 is under the 50 and the 5 is under the 20 and all are pointing down? This type of thing.
Next add back the 20 from the 4hr chart and repeat and soon you will begin to recognize patterns.
Then add back the 4hr 50 and repeat and you'll see why at certain times something that you thought might happen actuall DID happen.
Now you're on the road.
If you want to scroll back then replay the chart, why not take off the autoscroll switch, scroll back then hit f12 for a one step forward increment.
I know this sounds basic but if you have very limited knowledge this is the sort of thing you should begin with.
Importantly. Don't rush
In the next lesson we will add something extra to the chart.
Just wanted to post my chain of thought on a possible short on EURUSD based on the following.
1 Hour Chart: 21 CCI touched +100. 84 CCI Indicating not oversold.
Move down to 15 min chart
15 Min Chart: Allow the break of the 15min 80ma. Wait for retracement. Hopefully by that time the 84 cci would have crossed 0.0 and get in on the way down.
I'm not sure if my chain of thought is correct so we be great to get some feedback.
FerruFx....be cautious about shorting eurusd because there is a hammer on daily candle and cci positive divergence appeared on the 4 hr tf. It's possible that the down move on 15 mins. could just be a pullback for an up move. Most of the time bigger TF rules over shorter TF. I don't mean to confuse you, but just my thoughts.
Bill, what I usually do is I take half position out then move to B.E., there is always a chance that you will get stopped out so do cover your bases. Or just take the whole position and enter again at a suitable setup.
Thanks, Moremore,
If I had left the original stop loss I would have hit TP1 this morning. Doh!
That's a good plan for the next time.........and there will be a next time.
Last edited by Honest Bill; 09-04-2008 at 07:27 AM.
Thanks, Moremore,
If I had left the original stop loss I would have hit TP! this morning. Doh!
That's a good plan for the next time.........and there will be a next time.
Hey Bill,
You will not be the first or last to fiddle with the s/l and rue the day! I think a mentor (Dan007) once said a stop loss is there only for emergencies, and to stop you getting in to real trouble.......
From a personal experience, and since changing tack I have not seen my s/l hit, as I get out either in profit or for a small loss before bigger s/l gets kicked in.
I was in the same trade and took profit - I have looked at the chart and can clearly see the where and why. Doesn't help with the loss, but I'd recommend you look at the s/l process and revisit your strategy. I'm active with my trades, and do not like to leave things ride so really plan my s/l. If I do move a s/l I use the pimp rule of break even +5 for the next s/l position. But its only a personal preference. Money in my bank versus money for my spread provider.
Thanks very much for your input guys & girls. It's all very positive, great suff.
I hear what you are saying about the Euro Nikesh, there's a couple of things I'd also like to add to Moremore's pearls of wisdom if I may.
Take a look at your 60m 20ema and your 60m 50sma. What's occuring?
Well they are bunched together and 20 is trying to cross up through the 50, which is bullish.
We are seeing a very similar scenario on both Gold and Crude too which would scupper your plans completely.
It's also failed to stay below the weekly S2 level and is now above the daily pivot.
It's a long-shot but I am more in favour of 1.47 than 1.43 in the immediate term.
Onto this morning.
We're back on that sticky ground with Gold and Crude above the pivots with 20emas from the 60m trying to cross above the 50's.
Crude making higher lows yesterday but also lower highs doesn't give me a great deal of confidence in calling the next move.
4hr Trend is still clearly down but there is definately room to the upside to the 4hr 20ema at $111.
On the sownside you should have a diagonal support line coming up of wednesdays lows which it would really need to break for a further move down.
I am favouring the former scenario on the understanding that only if it breaks above 109.70.
Gold above 805 could be interesting to at least 810, then 820 maybe. (4hr 20/50)
Currencies are a little bit messy.
Would love to see JPY fall through the daily 50 at 107.90 but not overly convinced about a weak Dollar.
Cable above 1.78 would be a nice play as would Euro above 1.4515.
If that pans out on the back of stronger gold then expect to see Swiss at 5hr 50 at 1.1010.
That's all for now.
That's all for now
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
Ding Dong
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