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Dear Le Pimp,
I am not too keen on the diet but am loving the adjustments you are putting forwardm
Furthermore I am delighted by the focus on the 'real' trend charts and getting this 5m chart where we it belongs! The real boys are the 60m and 4hour, and your gbpusd post slam duncks the approach. Most excellent.
I'm going to the fridge to collect to collect some beverage - alas can't see a smoothie in site, so I'll just have to settle for a large cold tiger beer. Yumm
Well, another big day on the Commodities with both Gold and Crude making new lows and adding more weight to the Dollar.
The next port of call could well be the weekly 50 now the 20 has well & truly gone. That'd take us down to about $100 a barrel.
Gold could fall as low as $850 an ounce.
Both are showing a lot of red both on the Heiken Ashi and the CCI's so I will not be getting into these immediately.
So where does that leave us with the currencies?
They are all a little overcooked to be honest.
Pound had fallen almost 200 pips since yesterday morning.
Euro is still messing about at the weekly 20 and Last Weeks Low's.
Swissie has been podering these highs with no real menace for over a month now.
Finally, my Japanese Princess. She's still stuttering aroung the weekly 50.
All are overbought or oversold bar JPY.
Euro needs to break 1.5500 for move south.
Swiss needs to break 1.0520 for a move north.
Miss Yen need to break 108.50 for a move up.
Pound is on the Sub's bench
The shorter-term.
Let's not forget Gold and Crude here. Without these two falling hugely we would not expect and majot move on the currencies, apart for Pound, who seems to be very naughty of late.
With Euro under the averages and USDJPY looking tired I am tempted off beaten track in search for a short EURJPY.
Good day to you.
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
I have been monitoring a basket of currencies (13) that 'appeared' heavily biased towards the USD, for over a year now. So whenever the Euro was strong, the basket depreciated and vice-versa. However, something very odd appears to be happening - although the Euro has been falling heavily, the basket has also been falling! Since the USD also appears to be just 'churning' pips relative to the yen, my question is, specifically, what currencies are gaining atm? Afterall, we are dealing with currency ratios, so something has to be appreciating? Is it possible that money is being diverted away from the majors and into 'minor' currencies?
These comments are solely based on how just one basket is behaving of course, but one thing for sure, something is happening that hasn't occurred in at least the last year...
I have been monitoring a basket of currencies (13) that 'appeared' heavily biased towards the USD, for over a year now. So whenever the Euro was strong, the basket depreciated and vice-versa. However, something very odd appears to be happening - although the Euro has been falling heavily, the basket has also been falling! Since the USD also appears to be just 'churning' pips relative to the yen, my question is, specifically, what currencies are gaining atm? Afterall, we are dealing with currency ratios, so something has to be appreciating? Is it possible that money is being diverted away from the majors and into 'minor' currencies?
These comments are solely based on how just one basket is behaving of course, but one thing for sure, something is happening that hasn't occurred in at least the last year...
Hi Omellette.
Give me a list of the currencies that you monitor and I will try and shed some light for you.
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
I have said 100 times that I seldom trade when the 4hr CCI's are overcooked.
I didn't say you couldn't. Just be careful.
If you, like many, prefer to get in and out with 10-20 pips then be my guest. This strategy is equally at home picking up 10 pips as it is picking up 100.
Instead of displaying the 60m and 15m, change it to 15m and 5m only.
Use the 84 on the 15m chart as your direction, which is the 60m trend and use the 150 levels on the CCI as I would use on the 4hr one to guage your overbought / oversold areas.
It's not a style I am ovely fond of but appreciate that I must cater for the masses and and am more than happy for you to work like this if it suits your style.
Case definately dismissed
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
The 'b' and 's' stand for Buy & Sell. Same lot-size used for each...
Omellette
You will find that your basket will be all over the place as it's not really relative to Dollar strength or weakness.
Sure AUDUSD & USDCAD & NZDUSD & EURUSD & GBPUSD are but the rest, not so.
The Dollar will have some bearing however. For exmple EURGBP is a mix of EURUSD and GBPUSD, CHFJPY is a mix of USDCHF and USDJPY and so on.
This is why I choose, with this strategy to ignore these pairs as generally GBPUSD & EURUSD tend to travel in the same direction mostly. So if both Euro and Pound are either strong or weak, where does that leave EURGBP ?
A little bit sideways.
I tend to use that particualr pair if I am looking to trade Either Cable or Euro, just to ascertain which is likely to move the better.
I hope this helps
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
I have a couple of quick questions for you. Can you clarify which CCI'S I'm supposed to have on the 15, 60 and 4 hr. Its just I noticed since yesterday your cci's on your images has changed since. Sorry if its a dumb question but I just wanted to be on the same page.
As far as everything else I think trading has been well this week so far. I love our little community and it's always nice to talk to everyone, especially when the market is at it's slow points. Anyhow, I would like to send out a big thank you to Le Pimp, Cako and the numerous other people for all their contributions to make all of this happen. Everything from peoples advice to making custom indicators, from taking the time to set up this thread and the chat room, and still making time to answer every ones questions regardless of what they are. YOU ALL ROCK and you all know who you are!!!
I can't wait to chat with you all tonight and may the pip fairy bring us all many pips.
You will find that your basket will be all over the place as it's not really relative to Dollar strength or weakness.
Sure AUDUSD & USDCAD & NZDUSD & EURUSD & GBPUSD are but the rest, not so.
The Dollar will have some bearing however. For exmple EURGBP is a mix of EURUSD and GBPUSD, CHFJPY is a mix of USDCHF and USDJPY and so on.
This is why I choose, with this strategy to ignore these pairs as generally GBPUSD & EURUSD tend to travel in the same direction mostly. So if both Euro and Pound are either strong or weak, where does that leave EURGBP ?
A little bit sideways.
I tend to use that particualr pair if I am looking to trade Either Cable or Euro, just to ascertain which is likely to move the better.
I hope this helps
Yep, I hear what you're saying. btw, I didn't pick the basket, it's from another strategy here on TSD which I believe could be pretty good if there was a way to pick a basket based on market sentiment. There is no doubt though that for the past year this particular basket has been heavily USD biased - not atm though...
Dollar strength is really starting to push forward once more.
In two weeks Gold has fallen 1000 pips ($100), Crude 3000 pips (£30).
On the Forex Euro has fallen 500 pips, Pound 500 pips. Swiss 600 pips and Yen 400 pips. That's a total of 6000 pips. YES SIX THOUSAND PIPS and do you know what ?
We were trading virtually all of these from the tops and bottoms for a few pips, but how many of us stayed with them ? Not many I'd bet.
This is why I say time and time again. Try to leave a little bit running and run it with the daily CCI, or at least the 4hr CCI.
Anywat it looks like further Dollar strength will prevail over the coming months.
The weekly 20's have been broken now on everything, so the next logical support/resistance would be the weekly 50's (daily 200's).
Longer term I am waiting for pullbacks on everything.
I'd like $900 on Gold before I'd consider it. Crude is not on my list but it would heve to be back to $122.
Euro I am looking for a pullback to 1.5550 before shorting, Pound to about 1.9700.
Yen I am already holding a small position. It's so close to that weekly 50 I'ts almost ready to pop and I'd consider building from 108.00, off the support line if it pulls back a bit.
Swissie I am looking for a retracement ro 1.05 befor contemplating a long position.
Shorter term things are very different.
Remember the elastic band I spoke about?
These are all at full stretch now so expect some retracements.
Gold and Crude have yet to break the 60m 20ema or the 84 CCI on the 15m chart so I won't be jumping on a long Euro and Cable band-wagon.
Yes these latter two are in the positive with the 84 crossing a couple of hours ago. There maybe some plays upto the 60m 50sma or even the 4hr 20ema, but remember it's against the trend.
Swissie is doing the oppsitie of Euro, as she does.
Interestingly USDJPY is still Positive on the CCI and so would expect some moves on EURJPY IF she can hold-up and IF continue to recover.
Good day to you
__________________ I'm now sending trading notes out twice a day with videos too. Have a look HERE.
There's one set at 6:30 UK time for London and one at 12:00 for U.S session, plus I will send a summary video after each session
Linear Mode
