Quote:
Originally Posted by larries
...here's my attachements again, don't know why it didn't work the first time.
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Hi Larry,
There are a couple of issues here. Both of which are worth a mention.
Firstly, there is a time and a place for everyhing and I am not sure whether there is gernerally enough volatility in the FX markets after all the London and European Investment firms have gone home for the day.
Generally, the busiest time is the p.m session, but when London Frankfurt Paris & New York are all at it from about 1p.m UK time.
I would only trade currencies for a couple of hours after that, maybe until 3.
Secondly, none of this correlation is perfect all the time. See the weekly charts posted on the previous page and you can see it clearly.
The point I try to make is that if we see these pairs and commodities as the corner pieces of our jigsaw, once we have these in place the rest is relatively easy.
All I am saying is that my preference is to wait until it makes sense, ie. EURUSD & GBPUSD up or down with Gold AND Crude withb USDCHF & USDJPY going the other way.
If you have the Indices trading in the same direction as Swissie and Yen too that's like having all the edges of the jigwas too.
Any other time I am on the fence or trading Gold / Crude / Indices.
Your entry was technically a valid one apart from
1) time of day
2) time elapsed since initial cross of 5m 20 over 15m 20
3) Not correct correlation with Gold.
I am sorry if you kick yourself for not taking the trade but I guarantee you will miss out on minimal pippage. If you wait for everything to move into place then you are more likely to have a higher success rate.
Sometimes it's important to realise the strike rate of the trades you do take, and to forget about the result of the one that got away.
To term another analogy of sorts, if I may........ If I walk outside the house and it starts to pour down with rain whist I am leaveing fro a party what can I do ?
1) go back and get a jacket or umbrella
2) go back and stay indoors and have a moan.
3) grin and bear it and venture out but moan all night about it.
Of these three which 2 serve absolutely no purpose?
I lose mental equilibrium if I cannot accept defeat and instead blame something beyong my control.
I lose mental balance if I just quit and sit stuffing my face with chips in front of the TV all night.
The only way I can grow as a person is by finding solutions and to find solutions I need a clear head and to maintain a clear head I need to forget about what I don't have and instead concentrate on what I do have.
I miss 20 trades a week because the odds were not in my favour and all conditions were not met.
However, over half those trades with valid signals produced a loss and not a gain.
On the other hand, the trades I did take produced a success rate in excess of 75%. If I risk 20 to make at least 30 with a 75% hit rate do I really need to be trading the Uzbekhy vs the Mongolian at 3 in the morning.
Nope & neither do you. Time managememnt is as essential as money managememnt here and compulsary you take only what the market gives between the hours of 7-11am and 1-4pm. If you make 50 pips, great, if you lose 50 pips, then so be it. You are playing by your rules and there's always tomorrow.
Sorry, got the overdoing it bug. Soooooooooo tired after the weekend I am waffling again.
Entry or not?
Ooops Charts again (hopefully)
Linear Mode
