All part of the learning curve, Stuart.

As you have found out, moving your stop based on the previous day's extremes is not the way to do it. Yesterday's bar confirmed the previous bar (Feb 23) as a SWING HIGH, therefore a better place for your stop would have been a few pips above that high. My stop was even further away at major resistance at 1.4760 but is now moved above the swing high.

I anticipated the Feb 23 as a swing high because, to me, it was an exhaustion bar at minor resistance with a few cycles topping at that time and together with volume, seemed like a good place.

Also notice the 50 acting as resistance and the 20 bouncing off it.

The major support at 1.4130 holds the key to future direction.

Hope this helps.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

I understand.

Yesterday had a higher high than the day before which isn't great, but the price bouced straight off the falling resistence.

I should have seen that, but a 200 pip stop seemed a lot when the target was 300 pips.


Do you think GBP:JPY looks to be reversing now? Double top and reversal?

That would require a 400 pip stop though!

I closed my GBPUSD trade at yesterday's close as it stopped at minor support. This may be premature but I prefer to take some profit as the market is lacking direction right now.

As per my previous post, technical analysis on JPY pairs is very difficult now due to BOJ weakening the Yen. It looks like BOJ is taking the exchange rate back to 100 Yen to the $, so until BOJ pulls out, it is best (safer) to stand aside and let the market declare it's direction rather than trying to guess it.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Edit: Although market participation in USDJPY seems to be drying up, I am putting in a TP order on 50% of my position at 99.87 in anticipation of an exhaustion spike as BOJ tries to get to 100:1

Yes it's too easy to understand. Thanks a lot for sharing it with us.
so kicking it on demo first to ............

as you can see less trades better results

I will fight my way back to profit without violating my money management to heavily.

am5l50.jpg

Cu all next week


take care Hans..

Nice one Hans. Good week

Have a good weekend all.

Strat, do you like USD:CHF going lower longer term?

Feb 20th as reversal day, with stops above the high?

Entry below the low of the day before?

USDCHF:
Both technically and fundamentally, USDCHF is looking for direction from EURUSD.
Here is what we know technically:

Weekly:
In a corrective up move within the larger, dominant down move. This correction is now losing momentum having been rejected by Fib resistance.
The 20 continues to move in parallel above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices.

Daily:
We have a swing top in place on Feb 20 and now in a down cycle. Prices are in a corrective up cycle within the down cycle trying to re - test the swing high, however, momentum is non - existent. Again, the swing high is at final Fib resistance.
The 20 is above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices but they are converging.
There is major support at 1.1400 which, so far, is being successful in rejecting the downward attack.

What's next?
Who knows? I certainly don't.
A possible scenario is that when both the Weekly and Daily down cycles are in harmony, we may see a retrace down to their respective 38.2% Fib retracements before making a push to newer highs.

Now throw in a splash of funny mentals which are saying "we are in a world financial crisis, what shall I do with my money?" The answer, by the majority of actions, is to go to cash. "But which currency I hear you say?" GBP is teetering on the edge of the cliff with EUR a couple of steps behind. JPY is being whored by BOJ and CHF, although backed by gold, is being overlooked by the big boys so what is left? Well Japan and China are buying US$ which is still the World currency and backed by the World's largest economy (printing press) so that's the situation right now.

So how to trade USDCHF? - don't (at least not until we have clear direction).

Most currencies are in some sort of daily consolidation/ranging phase right now which is when the Pros put their hands on their wallets and the novices/amateurs use theirs like monopoly money.

Wait for the right opportunity - it is already being set up somewhere - our job is to find out where, when and which one, but it is there.

Me, I'm taking the strings off my 59 Strat to see why they are rattling on the frets so I think I'll give her a good going over.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

To the relief of Dan and Zak, this is my last post here, so thank you for putting up with me.

At the request of so many (they will probably live to regret it!), I have started my own thread on Forex Factory called "Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading".
Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

This is in no way a rejection of the Pimp Strategy - far from it - in earlier posts I have promoted it, and still do. Why? Because it works.

It worked for me, but I am a long term trader raised and trained on Daily charts. I cannot sit and stare at the one eyed monster all day - it does me 'ead in! A couple of minutes at the end of each day is about all I can handle!

Good luck and good profits to everyone here but never forget:

Rock n Roll!
Strat

Did I read this right? 28.4% profit in one week!
Hans, I am so pleased for you ....
Have a lovely weekend
Nicola

you are genius buddy.