hansnl,

An observation if I may.

60 trades or so per week works out to about 12 trades per day. It looks like of these, a big slice are losers.

Instead of taking 12 trades, why not stand back and WAIT for everything to line up before trading (eg the MA's, CCI's, trend, etc) and then only take those trades. I'm sure this will reduce the number of trades and also your losing trades.

Unless you are a very seasoned pro, 12 trades per day is way too much.

Just my view, nothing more. Each to his own.

Rock on
Strat

Thanks for your response Strato

Will try to limit my amount of entry's to 4 a day, what will force me to pick my trades more careful as well.
I still tend to slip in a easy mode , specially when I'm in profit and then and up with a loss for the day.

regards,

hans..

It worked! The crossing of the ma's got me +304 pips, even with entering without waiting for the 1-2-3
I added a WTI short which collected +174 pips too.

-20 on a poorly judged Gold long which I cut short.

Zak - Thanks for the Fabulous strategy and the +134 pips today on GBPJPY (my only currency trade today)

Have a great week everyone

Attached Images

oil15min.gif (25.2 KB, 308 views)

As Stratocaster says, you've been overtrading. Been there, bought the T-Shirt. Check this out: http://www.forex-tsd.com/243447-post1275.html

__________________
Honest Bill

Thanks Bill, indeed you had the same problem with over trading,.
Seems you do better now so there is still a chance to survive for me..

hans..

Hey Nicola

Great start for your week - could easily be another one that gets you over 1,000 by end of Friday, may even get 2k (wicked oil, even though you didn't wait for the 'correct' signal, you really have developed the 'feel' of this market). Nice to see you manage your gold for -20, keep on stopping the losses at this sort of level (you can always go back in again) & letting your winners run and you really will be challenging Anders on the year end pip count. You really are a great example of what it is possible to achieve with the fx500 strategy.

Altenatively, you could simply take the rest of the week off, with that number of pips in the tin today (although something tells me you couldn't do that?)

keep posting & keep getting those pips in

Watch this video, interesting, includes crude chart analysis of DOW and Oil & some currency analysis:

Charts Predict: Oil Heading towards $17 - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com

You are right Paul, I might have to keep trading!
Nicola

Dear Pipsters,

An interesting but crazy day. I did not trade yesterday as it was US holiday, thinking low volumes. Mistake 1. This morning after winding up the charts thought, everything gone miles need a pullback. Mistake 2. Thought I was beginning to see the sense of the moves and spot the retracements. Mistake 3.

It was not all doom and gloom. I did take WTI lower this morning +55 pips. Had a spot of WTI this afternoon long to the MP +80 pips. In the middle of that I snaffled +31 pips on FTSE short.

The crap fest was me trying to be cheeky and take EU long got pipped out once for -15 pips and the second time at b/e when I was up 50 pips. Idiot; in a volatile market take your pips and run. I also tried anothe anti-strategy move by going long ftse to be stopped out again also for -15 pips. Given the moves I'd missed I was pleased with the outcome.

Well done Nicola on your very impressive trading and in particular your reading of Oil.

Me myself I have stopped listening to the soothsayers and playing my charts. If the world is hiring large ships to store oil, the price at the refineries is rising and futures contracts are also rising, and oil producers are cutting production we shall have a price squeeze at some point. Until then I am interested in oil to $25 only if I am short and back to $200 when I am long. I think JFK is still alive and he and Elvis share a condo on Richard Bransons private island, where they knit socks for the poor children of Africa. The Martians have landed and the price of gold will rise only because we shall start using it as a cure for baldness and obesity and China will decide to only use soya bean oil to protect the environment. In a crazy world you can be sure of The Soothsayers.......coming to all good bookstores near you. Advance copies please send large and full pip tins to me......to cover post and packing.

Now where was I................

Hallucinations Rockie

Hans,
For me I think you need to slow down and take it nice and easy. Less is most definitely more. Try to find a couple of decent trades per session and let them breathe. I think you will most definitely get more pips that way and ultimately have a much calmer day.

May the pips be with you,

Calmer Rockie

Hi Hans,
Sorry its taken me a while but heres my week 1 results (remeber I can only trade one week in two) in your 'easy read' format:
week 1 : 561 pips + and 311 - pips in 25 trades results +251

My initial calculation of the number of pips made or lost on each trade is to take the opening price of the trade away from the closing price. Totalling my total winners and total losers shows me that overall I am up 251 pips. 50 pips below my weekly target but not too bad.
What I couldn't understand though, was why my account balance (in money terms) was about the same at the end of the week as it was at the start, the reason I think now, is money management

If you get a 100 pip move, of which you take half of your profit at the 100 pips and set your stop to breakeven (which is then hit) you have only really made 50 pips. If you then get two 25 pip losers, your net haul (for those three trades) is a big fat zero. Therefore to calculate your winners and losers properly, in terms of pips, you have to allow for the stake. Adjusting my calculation in this way explains the lack of movement in money terms on my account
week 1 : 158 pips + and 155 - pips in 25 trades results +3

As you can see, all of my losers were at 50p a pip (311 pips X 50p = 155 pips in money terms), but my winners were at 28p on average
So, what are my lessons from this analysis to put into practice next week?

Firstly the number of trades and the performance of them (5 losers out of 25 trades is 80% win rate) looks reasonable to me, so I'm not going to change my trade set up selection criteria. The 250 (full stake equivalent) pips is only 50 pips short of my weekly target. What I need to do is improve the average pip value of my winning trades and be much firmer with the implementation of stops for losers. Next week I will:
1. Take a larger percentage of a winning trade of at the 50 pip level (I'm going to go with 80%, ie 40p of my 50p stake), so that the remaining 20% can go on to the 100 pip level, or fall back to hit breakeven
2. Always have a hard stop in place, at the time of placing the order, 50 pips away from my entry level. If the ma's suggest that 50 points is insufficient I won't take the trade. (I allowed two to go to 100 pips losers last week). It may be that the trade set up is actually good, but by not entering when the required stop is over 50 pips, you can actually hit a better entry level by waiting - I think that Nicola's oil trade late Friday 16th shows how this can sometimes be the case - or waiting may in fact indicate that the price is going in the opposite direction to that anticipated from the set up. Of course, sometimes it will fly off in the anticipated direction and I wont be in it, but as reading this thread proves, there will always be another set up to trade just around the corner

Nice to see that even the mighty 'pip'drive can get one or too wrong sometimes too, thanks for sharing Rockie!

Paul