Ok..has anyone who's gotten really tired of trying indicators tried just opening a trade on a currency pair that has a small spread and placing limit at 100 and stop at -100? No charts, no indicators, just a quick simple coin toss. Since price action is pretty much random anyway (A trend can reverse at any time) would you really be much worse off? Just opening this up for discussion.

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.

I have thought about this. I think that you should always take the trade at same time each day. Look at the hedge hog system. It also goes along this line of thinking. And look at the mp6140 posts in the Join the dot thread. These are hedge trade gust taken at a given time.

Also what do you think about taking a basic indicator lets say heiken ashi. Pick a time and make a trade on the color of the candle at that time. Dont look at price or the trend. Gust pick a time and go with the color of the indicator. I think a small tp would do you best 10 or 20. Gust a thought.

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...system-ea.html

Join the Dots.


Jatki24300

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What you can reach?
1/1 win/loss ratio?
Even then you loose the spread.

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My thinking is that over time you would have equal odds then if you were using an indicator, say Henkin ashi or Braintrend. I have used them both (they give almost identical signals) allot and they do give the trader a small edge, but not enough of an edge to be of much use in building wealth. My thinking here is that if one uses a scale as described below then over time wealth will be built even though each trade has a presumed 50% of chance of giving profit.

Level 1
$100x5 profitable trades=$500
Level 2
$200x5=$1000

and so on, adding 1 lot at each level. I think it is a mistake to assume that the win loss ratio will be 1/2 because we are dealing with random probability. It could be in our favor, or very much against us, but I don' think it will stay 1/2 for any length of time. If you flip a coin 10 times it will usually show a slight bias for one side or the other. The trader would not need to be right every time for this to work, they just need to be patient enough to stick with it. If one thinks of that first $100 as the seed for the whole system it's actually not expensive. A serious trader should have two mini accounts minimum anyway so it's not like they couldn't go on using their normal system. Anyway, my working assumption is that eventually he or she will get lucky enough ( after allot of fluctuation between the first few levels)to reach the level where they stop adding lots (to protect the account that they have worked so hard to build), at which point they pile on more and more equity overtime. Eventually they can begin taking profit from the system. It's like a fire, it takes time to get started, and diligence to maintain. the upshot is that it es no analytical effort at all. Simply choose a low spread currency pair, open the trade and place the limit and stop order. Then go play golf and come back to it the next day. Of course it may lead a slight advantage to always go with the trend on the daily chart, but that's up to the trader. I don't think it would make any big difference. The trader just has to keep at it until they get to level 2, and then weather the bad trades till they get to level 3 (which may mean starting over a few times) and then level 4, and then level 5, etc. The farther one gets from level 1 the lower the probability of having to start over, of course. But this is no small point. AT level 10 using this system, one would be using 10 mini lots. That's $1000 per good trade, $5000 per 5. At that point the trader could simply maintain that level. Say if they get to level 10, hit a bad trade, lose $1000, so they are back at level 9, work their way back up and make some more money. Make it 100 lots and it doesn't seem like such a pain. Anyway, I'm going to open an additional mini account to test this, ill post the results.

It's kinda like using a martingale system in internet blackjack. The dealer has to win 7 times in a row to bust you. We aren't doubling our trades at every loss of course, but the concept is the same. If you get to level 5 you have to take several losses for the market to bust you. 10 to be precise ($4500/$400), rounding down to 10 to account for spread. I'm really exausted right now so if anyone sees a flaw in my math or logic don't hesitate to let me know. Of course the actual number would be slightly higher because you can't go on trading at level 4 if the market beats you back to the point where you've burned through that level so you drop down to level 3 at that point and so on until you recover. Anyway, that's 10 consecutive bad trades you can take if you drop down to i trading 4 lots. More conservative traders might prefer to drop down to level 2 to rebuild up to level 5 before trying for level 6 again. This may be way out of allot of peoples comfort zone and that's good, because too many people doing the same thing is never good.

As far as spread, I get as low as 2 pips for USD/JPY, which is the currency pair ill be using primarily for this, so it's not really a big deal. If nothing else, I can make my take profit two points higher, hell, 4 points higher.

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.

Right now im up 14 pips in a test trade I did today with one of my mini accounts. It actually feels really good to just watch the price action for a while and nothing else and then place a trade and have it go right into profit. Of course an 80 point move in my direction at this point will be a matter of luck, that's fine with me though. I've been staring at charts for three years now, and yeah, I've made some coin, not bad coin either, but over that time I've come to realize that it's not the charts that tell you anything, it's the instinct that you develope, the muscle if you will, that tells you what the price is going to do. Indicators/support resistance/Fibonacci, all of those, it' s so easy to shrug it off when they are wrong. It' s not until you take a broad enough look over enough years worth of candles that you see that they are just getting lucky.

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.

Thanks for the links, Jat, I'm checking them out now. yeah, I think in trading we should stick to the motto, "Keep It Simple Stupid!". Not that any of us are stupid, but I think we can sabotage ourselves pretty easily by wasting time looking for the perfect indicator.


That trade that I took earlier just hit 50 pips

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.

What we need now is a system which never use indicators right, lets discuss about it.

Normally I trade GBP/USD without any indicators and stop loss. I I trade both positions. When one postion make profit, I collect the pips, start again, collect the pips, start again and collect pips while the negative one will be reversed to positive right ?

December I have 2300 pips in ope pair (GBP/USD), I like bouncing....because negative will turn into positive).

Nic

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Nic
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Hey nic, yes this works well in slow market times. I have a thread on this board here about that. I find it is best to watch the price action to let you know when to close the profitable trade. Remember you have to wait till your negative goes towards zero enough to cover the spread of opening another position in the opposite direction plus atleast one before doing so.

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.

We can do some back testing to confirm this idea. If we can find win:loss > 1, this method will beat many complicated systems.

Cool. I think it has potential. I'm going to find a coder to work with to get a simple EA made, I think this is a system that I would feel safe using an EA with. It would work much much faster that way anyway.

That trade that I took yesterday ended up negative. It got up to 89 pips but turned around and went all the way to negative 100 some time this morning.
I'm trying again now.

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The advanced trader knows and understands that the perfect trading strategy is one that makes pips, not miracles. Build a fortune, 15 pips at a time.//"To be a successful trader you must keep your cool at all times and take money from aroused amateurs." (Dr. Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room)//Fortune favors the bold, but the markets favor the disciplined.