[This interview originally appeared on HardAssetsInvestor.com last week and is republished here with permission.]
When Jim Rogers talks, investors listen. Rogers may be the world’s best-known commodity investor, with his Rogers International Commodity Index and best-selling books, including “Hot Commodities.” HAI Managing Editor Sumit Roy recently spoke with Rogers from his home in Singapore about commodities, including whether he’s ready to buy gold after the recent plunge in prices.
HardAssetsInvestor: A lot of investment banks have recently called an end to the commodities supercycle that began more than a decade ago. Do you think they’re wrong?
Jim Rogers: I'm delighted to hear that. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. I'm not quite sure where the supply is coming from that would cause the bull market to end. Maybe they know something I don’t. But when you look back at the stock bull market from 1982 to 2000, stocks collapsed in 1987, ’89, ’90, ’94, ’97, ’98. And every time, people said the bull market is over. But it wasn’t. This bull market in commodities will definitely come to an end someday. But someday is not here yet.
HAI: What signs do you look for to determine when the bull market is close to ending or has ended?
Rogers: Well, when there’s massive new supply coming on stream, then we’ll have the end of the bull market. But the world has consumed more agriculture products than it has produced for a decade now. But worse than that, we’re running out of farmers. The average age of farmers in America is 58; in Japan, it’s 66. Many of the industrial metals are now below the cost of production.