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Ok, after looking at all these martingale systems and trying almost all combinations and variations. I came to the conclusion that you can win using Martingale, but need to keep the following in mind...
1: Need deep pockets to withstand up to 10 normal lots in 1 direction. 10 lots means up to 200 pips move without a 20 pips retrace. I have not seen 1 yet but better safe than sorry, so good to prepare from the get go.
2: Trade in the direction of the major trend. So if Trend is up, then buys only, if the trend is down, then sells only. (Need to discuss this, I donot like indicators as they are useless but I think they might play a minor role here as a filter)
3: Trade in the positive swap direction. Believe it or not, this actually helps the end result of the closed positions, positive swap will help the end pips+profit is always positive and no end up in breakeven or worse loss.
4: Lots increment needs to be in such a manner then when the trades are closed you get double the pips if the trades would have been closed in the previous level. exception is the level1, I start with Level0, so level0 and level1 have the same lots.
So far, here is the lots increments I have been getting at...
level-----Lots
level0----1
level1----1
level2----2
level3----5
level4----12
level5----27
level6----60
using 0.01 as initial lots, you will get...
level-----Lots
level0----0.01
level1----0.01
level2----0.02
level3----0.05
level4----0.12
level5----0.27
level6----0.60
I will update these level requirement later, since I have not calculated the rest of the levels. But as you can see the incrementation is not as low as previous*2 or previous*2+1, but the end result is you get double the pips as levels rise. Here is the math for pips...
As you can see, even though you increase the lots, the reward doubles as well. In normal martingale, you double your bet but your reward is still same as winning the initial bet. Which sucks, if you have 10 normal lots open to make just 10 cents.
I have hired a very good programmer for this EA. And he will be done with it pretty soon. And once done I will post the ea here free of charge ofcourse.
Once I do post it, please donot modify it and repost in this thread, start a new thread for it, I donot want to see any mods of the EA unless I made the modifications or I authorized it. If I see a mod I did not authorize I will ask newdigital to move that post to a new thread or something.
All I need from you guys is feed back. Pros, Cons, anything, the idea is to get collective collaboaration on the EA. I can only see the EA from a certain angle, and can only think of a few cons or pros. But the more people look at it the more pros and cons will appear. I am still not sure to use a trend detection indicator or not? I am interested in long term trend not M5 or M15 trends, long term trends only.
Here is the filter:
If long term trend and the positive swap direction are in sync, then trade in that direction.
e.g. GBPJPY, seems like GBPJPY will be going up lets say, and obviously the GBPJPY Buys swap is in our favor then we keep on buying even if price keeps dropping, and when we get a 20 pips or user defined pips retrace we close all buys and take profit. If we buy and trade goes in our direction for x amount of pips then we TP and open a new trade and that trade is now Level0 and go from there, if level0 is in profit then open a new Buy and now that is Level0, and create buylimits below level0 with proper lots pet level and buystops above level0 with lots=initiallots variable.
This is exactly as the blessing system posted by rifo, great post by the way, worth a reading, only exception is that I use differend lots increments and also donot hedge, and only trade when positive swap and trend are in sync.
Sorry no EA to post yet, but as soon as it's done I will post it here. While we wait, all responses welcome, positive or negative. Thank you very much for reading and keep an eye out for the EA.
:: For those of you interested in some forward testing, I been running the Blessing system on 4 majors for over 10 days now. Remember, the blessing system does not have any trend or swap positive filters. And, also it hedges. So My EA will not have same kind of profit or same amount or # of trades but this forward testing account will give you an idea as what a martingale system is capable of. Initial Lots=0.01
Just waiting for my programmer to come online on MSN. Been waiting for him all morning. I am pushing to release at least preliminary version of the EA without all the bells and whistles at least. Just like everyone else, I am eager to test and try it out as well.
KillerKhan, I guess for your EA the leverage 1:500 is suitable...
200:1 is fine in my opinion.
What is important is the broker must support hedging and also margin requirement for hedging must be similar to FXDD's
e.g. in FXDD when you buy and sell at the same time the margin used is 0 as long as they are same lots. If you have 2 buys 1 sell then you only require margin for the 1 buy the other 2 orders margin requirement cancels each other.
Not sure what other brokers do this, but that is key.
He means do not look too insight on the daily activity, which is uses ATR and try to calculate the daily range. Because during the ranging period, the market band is going narrow, where your martingale system will get cheated by the trading bound. You could have accumulated 3~4 orders before the real trend hitting in. At this time, if some sudden news really come in and create a market short, you'll have a big gap up/down and trigger your max trade to about 8~10 atleast, you'll become no turning back, close with loss? Losses to high, cant close; close with mild profit? What if the market continue trending my position's direction?
Few things you can do like V12 is widen the pip step; look in to the spread. If spread widen, do not continue take trade. Use algorithm to calculate the risk of how many previous opened trades in hand, and forecast the comming drawdown(expect the worst) of the next position. If you seeing the drawdown is going more than you can accept, basically its already a confirmed trend change, why not just cut off with minor loss?
As per observation on Jitterburg and Wave Rider(I dont know what is the current development stage of bluto, analysis based on last month bluto's posted result), Jitterburg has the main control of trend indicator. Where market is breaking certain range(could be internal calculation algorithm, not extern int), Jitterburg could have close off with mild profit/loss and pass the job to Wave Rider to run with the trend. Wave Rider very possible using EWO/trendline/Fibo Extension to determine the ranging period. Fibo extension of the 5th wave on C wave indicate a huge trend. As bluto explained earlier, both EA are SMSing each other information about the current market trend by passing around global variable to inform their BUSINESS partner what is the current market condition. EWO A+B and 1+2 is meant for the time for Jitterburg to smash the market, which C+3 appeared on the Fibo extended after 100%, the job will passes back to Wave Rider. Intelligent master piece, I admit I dont have that kind of skill to make this happened. Therefor, what I made on V12 is very limitted and could kill the account under certain circumstances...still...
Regards
David
David,
You have a fertile imagination and a zesty perception, but actually, what I said in my prior post was pretty straightforward and doesn't require interpretation. Your take on the inner workings of Jitterbug and WaveRider are also really way off the mark, but the hypothetical system you describe sounds pretty cool.
You have a fertile imagination and a zesty perception, but actually, what I said in my prior post was pretty straightforward and doesn't require interpretation. Your take on the inner workings of Jitterbug and WaveRider are also really way off the mark, but the hypothetical system you describe sounds pretty cool.
why dont you enlighten us with some of your wisdom??
If you can think of a better way to avoid this big of a move, please do let me know.
[QUOTE=
built-in security measures as simultaneous trade on multiple pairs, pause/stop (break) trading after certain continuous loss, stop/standby after certain drawback (loosing pair pauses next move and wait for other pairs to gain back specified margin level ) , etc
several russians successfully tested martingale over two years (simultaneous 6, 12 pairs, gold,cfds...)
PS. don't know about EA. flipping coin; some demo acc; AleksSilver - real acc. $25,000 depo. (viac.ru; alpari.ru)
built-in security measures as simultaneous trade on multiple pairs, pause/stop (break) trading after certain continuous loss, stop/standby after certain drawback (loosing pair pauses next move and wait for other pairs to gain back specified margin level ) , etc
several russians successfully tested martingale over two years (simultaneous 6, 12 pairs, gold,cfds...)
PS. don't know about EA. flipping coin; some demo acc; AleksSilver - real acc. $25,000. viac.ru; alpari.ru
fxbs, sounds interesting. Can you give us some examples with currency names etc. So I can wrap my mind around it. thanks