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Quote:
Laugh away it will not work |
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Why?
Hi Guys I do not have a problem with the theory not working.
I just need to understand why. You have to agree that the theory makes sense. Obviously you guys have also went down this thought pattern. I just don't understand the why not. Is it the initial drawdown. Or are the mystic forex forces always lurking in the background. But then again if I was right then every EA that looses money would be a money wizard that could crash all worlds market (behind me a thunderstorm builds and I have an evil chuckle) Regards The Source
__________________
Safe Trades the source Last edited by thesource; 01-19-2007 at 06:29 AM. Reason: grammar |
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The reason that it will not work are...
1. The results of a system are more to do with the money/risk management aspects of a system and less to do with the actual signals. 2. Entring trades based on indicator TA in my experence gives you no statisical edge, taking no edge and inverting it does not give you a edge. |
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Hi
If you look closely, almost every Account Crasher EA is "crashing" the account after a long series of orders. Statistically, random trading will lose the spread multiplied with the number of trades => after a large number of trades, you will lose all your money. Let's say that we have the AccountCrasher EA (AC) and the Reversed EA (R). Day1: AC is losing 50 pips -> R is winning 48 pips. (50-2p spread) Day2: AC is losing another 100 pips and crashes the account-> R is winning 98 pips. AC has lost everything and R has gained 146 pips. If you stop now, it is ok! But how do you know when to stop?????? Day 3: AC would have win150 pips (if it had any margin) and R will lose 152 pips. So you will lose either way! Do you see my point? |
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This idea is not uncommon.
Its a method of trading called "Reversal Trading". People have been doing it for some time in all types of markets. Here's a thread that may help you out Reversal Trading System Good Luck |
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Read the article in the link to understand why it will not work:
http://www.iexpertadvisor.com/ib39.asp -Mikhail |
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blind hen
Adding my thought to this, I agree with the ney-sayers: if the EA's observations bear no correlation with the price movement, then its trades are random, and they stay random also if reversed. In fact, you may improve the logic until your ears go pointy, and the trades still stay random
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