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...The lots sequence I prefer is:
0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 1.2, 2.0, 3.5, 6.2
In my testing I usually use max 8 lots (which means 2.0 max size lots), on H4 timeframe, EURUSD.
Hey, finally somebody else finds alternative lot size usage useful!
The reason for such an improvement is the statistical observation that most profits are collected with the first 1-3 orders and the higher orders 4-6 (or above) rarely win but add a lot of risk because of the high lot sizes needed. So it is clear that the weighting of low orders vs. higher orders should be changed in order to increase low order profits. Of course optimal lot sizing depends on your t/p and pips settings.
I use with success the following settings:
a) EURUSD M15, t/p 15, s/l 10, pips 5, max trades 6 with lot sizes 1.5,2.7,1.2,0.6,1.2,1.8
b) EURUSD M5, t/p 10, s/l 10, pips 5 max trades 5 with lot sizes 2,2,1,3,4
Both configs apply to a 50k account, scale down the sizes according to your account size. In addition to that I use constant percentage of capital for compounding the profits. So whenever a new trade is started lot sizes are multiplied by a factor current equity/starting equity. This is based on the Kelly approach.
With above settings, you need > 90% winners. With a win rate that high you can also try to exploit the statistical fact that you rarely have successive losers. So you can try to use lot size progressions known from some gambling schemes to more quickly recover from a loser.
Example: After a loser start with the lot size multiplication sequence 3,3,2,2,1.5,1.5,1 where you advance in the sequence after every winner and restart after a loser. Try out other sequences yourself. Note that you should reach factor 1 before your average run length, otherwise you use constant overleverage.
It is controversial whether progressions are useful. They try to exploit statistical properties of winner/loser sequences, but they increase risk and they need a fairly stable win rate.
I use a version of Bipolar with these features builtin, but it needs a lot of cleanup before publishing it.
... Also, if you use different TP, Pips values it makes sense to recalculate the Lots sequence and see what values you get for Profit Points ....
Hope it makes a bit of sense ...
Just to remind everyone, these computations are available in my Excel spreadsheet for analyzing the effects of changing lot sizes. I add it here again in case you don't find it any more. So everyone can simulate the effects of varying t/p, lot sizes etc.
The enclosed file uses the settings of CatMan as an example.
Note that with an edge of 2% (entry is 52% correct) you get 99.88% winner probability. Even with a bad entry method of a negative edge of -10%, you still get > 99% success rate (but a negative expectation!).
This explains why the exit method of Goblin is so successful and the entry is not that important.
However, I want to remind you that we should maximize expectation and not only success probability. The negative side of such a high success rate is that we may have to wait a long time until a trade finishes, which gives us a low trade rate and growth. Ultimately, a lower success rate with higher expectation and higher trade rate is better in the long run, because it compounds profits much more quickly.
Hey, finally somebody else finds alternative lot size usage useful!
At one stage Bluto was saying that he was working on Goblin ver II which was supposed to use hedging - make one larger buy/sell order, then monitor the equity, etc, etc. Well, I reckon I have something like 10 versions of my Goblin Bipolar II I know, when it comes to smart EAs there is only one Bluto on this forum . I tried various ways to place/size the hedge order, to monitor the equity, etc. I also tried to somehow integrate the buy and sell orders/cycles, to size the new orders based on existing orders, etc, etc. I had some success in some instances, but every now and then I got a big loss which was difficult to swallow.
That's how I got to lot sizing.
I'm really curious if Bluto got anywhere with his Goblin ver II .
I use with success the following settings:
a) EURUSD M15, t/p 15, s/l 10, pips 5, max trades 6 with lot sizes 1.5,2.7,1.2,0.6,1.2,1.8
b) EURUSD M5, t/p 10, s/l 10, pips 5 max trades 5 with lot sizes 2,2,1,3,4
Hi, Alassio! what other settings do you use with these timeframes, like RSX period etc.? Thanks!
I use with success the following settings:
a) EURUSD M15, t/p 15, s/l 10, pips 5, max trades 6 with lot sizes 1.5,2.7,1.2,0.6,1.2,1.8
b) EURUSD M5, t/p 10, s/l 10, pips 5 max trades 5 with lot sizes 2,2,1,3,4
Hi Alassio, Do you use these values in forward demo testing ? For how long have you been using them ?
I'm trying to do a bit of backtesting with your values and I don't have too much luck... I'll set up a demo account with your values....
In my previous forward testing, I haven't been successfull with the M15 timeframe. Every time I managed to blow the account.
Attached you find the version I am using with all other experimental stuff removed. Just for fun, you also get my backtest results from 1999-2006 There are two versions:
FixedLots: Lot size is not scaled according to growing equity.
DynamicLots: Uses compounding by scaling according to equity.
Note that the in the compounding version at some point max lot size of 100 is reached and therefore lot sizes become all 100 for every order.
In reality, these results hardly can be achieved and I would look for less aggressive settings to flatten the equity curve. So be warned and don't jump into a live account immediately!
Now I am actually curious about what other improvements bluto is working on. His new babies seem to have changed names to JitterBug and WaveRider ...
Hi Alassio, Do you use these values in forward demo testing ? For how long have you been using them ?
I'm trying to do a bit of backtesting with your values and I don't have too much luck... I'll set up a demo account with your values....
In my previous forward testing, I haven't been successfull with the M15 timeframe. Every time I managed to blow the account.
See settings in last post. The M5 timeframe is quite aggressive and over shorter time periods it is too dangerous. The M15 is much better and there also RSX and the TrendFilter (H1) help a lot. H1 or H4 are also good, but I prefer a higher trade rate.
Attached you find the version I am using with all other experimental stuff removed. Just for fun, you also get my backtest results from 1999-2006 There are two versions:
FixedLots: Lot size is not scaled according to growing equity.
DynamicLots: Uses compounding by scaling according to equity.
Note that the in the compounding version at some point max lot size of 100 is reached and therefore lot sizes become all 100 for every order.
In reality, these results hardly can be achieved and I would look for less aggressive settings to flatten the equity curve. So be warned and don't jump into a live account immediately!
Now I am actually curious about what other improvements bluto is working on. His new babies seem to have changed names to JitterBug and WaveRider ...
Looks really good
Tell me about the actual chart is it a 1hr chart wit the set file and as well is it only euro/usd?
Tks for your work
The lots sequence I prefer is:
0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 1.2, 2.0, 3.5, 6.2
In my testing I usually use max 8 lots (which means 2.0 max size lots), on H4 timeframe, EURUSD.
Hi, CatMan! In your opinion, is it needed to add InitialStop to your settings? Otherwise, isn't it dangerous to run it, although according to backtest for 2006, the max size of position was 8th level? Thanks!
Thank you for sharing this EA. I tested it and found it a stable one. It is not a quick rich scheme but "slow and steady wins the race".
(There was a float at the end of the test period, closing of that caused some losses at the end. But it is usual.)
I know, when it comes to smart EAs there is only one Bluto on this forum 
. I tried various ways to place/size the hedge order, to monitor the equity, etc. I also tried to somehow integrate the buy and sell orders/cycles, to size the new orders based on existing orders, etc, etc. I had some success in some instances, but every now and then I got a big loss which was difficult to swallow. 
Linear Mode
