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My reasoning goes as follows:
- Find a setting that gives a reasonable winner/loss rate with stable profits
In my case 5 pips, tp 15, sl 10 (will be 15 after last trade), max trades 6
on 15 min EURUSD
- Use sl to make sure losers generate predefined amount of loss, reduce sl without sacrificing too many winners
- Collect statistics about winner/loser distribution to allow lot size optimization
Example: Winners trade 1: 21, 2: 28, 3: 23, 4: 15, 5: 12, 6: 6, Losers 14
- Compute (estimate) expected value per trade, which is sum of profit/loss weighted by probability and divide by risk to get expected percentage per trade (1-3%)
- Try to optimize expected value by rearranging lot sizes of individual orders
- Compute optimal capital allocation per trade using the Kelly formula, this gives you the percentage of capital to use per trade and therefore the factor to multiply the order lot sizes with
- Backtest with computed "optimal lot sizes" to confirm expected capital growth
The described procedure tries to optimize capital growth given that your Goblin settings have an "edge".
i understand what your getting at.....I have tried some tests with a s/l but cann't get a good group of settings for use of a s/l. I was going based on 3 trades make profit then aftyer 3 they start taking losses. So i tried to incoperate a s/l after 3 max trades. Nothing worked.
but what I do find is that starting with .1 lot per 10k account size. pip step from 28-35 and target of 15-18 will keep you in the game with minimal losses.
its not a get rich quick sceam or any thing like that. but will turn profits on a regular basis.
next week I fund "goblin" account. Not the end of next week but the week after should hold real money forward results.
Why should anyone tell you.
Read the entire forum.
If you want to use experts, one needs to learn the metatrader software language.
Make printouts of the experts and understand what makes them tick.
Study them and run strategy tests over and over again.
Thats the only way to figure it out.
There are no shortcuts in this business.
Be a self-thinker and don't follow anyone's advice.
During my backtests using max 6 trades and a stop loss, losers have always been the full 6 orders loaded and stopped out.
Now I have started a forward test with exactly the same settings and I have already 2 losers where only 3 orders have been initiated and a stop loss has been hit. My expectation is that if a trade goes against you, it will ALYWAYS load up to the full number of trades before hitting a stop.
Interestingly, a backtest of the forward testing period shows the same behaviour.
Has anybody a reasonable explanation for this behaviour? The chart looks as if some loser would have turned into a winner if max trades had been reached ...
- Noticed that the Turbo_JVEL velocity indicator was lagging the RSX signals. The experimental period setting of 17 was too long and was causing RSX signals to be confirmed and fired too late in the swing. Adjusted this back to a value of 7 (as with the regular Goblin) and increased the velocity factor to .02 +-. This should confirm the strength of RSX signals and help avoid flat periods. Revised EA is in zip.
Thanks Bluto for this EA !
About the "quote" above, is anything to do after put the EA on the chart?
The value 7 instead of 17 is for the RSX_Period in the EA parameters? You say the EA is revised but the default is 17. Do I make something wrong ? I don't find the velocity factor to increase too ...
Thanks for your help and sorry for my english (I am not an english-speaking)
As of a few moments ago I am running bipoler on the designated real money account.
I was funding through pay pal. They only do 2k at a time. The first 2k sent was sent back because it was received under my company name.(oops)
Pay pal says it will take 2-4 business days to transfer funds back to my bank. So I wired 1500 to the account and when the other 2k clears, I'll wire it too making the initial deposit 3500.
Thats cool. Gives me a couple days to run on 1500 with relatively small $risk.
Here is the settings I will be running on 1 hr chart. usd/jpy, euro/usd, chf/usd
I switched from audusd to chfusd because aud was opening max trades too often on forward tests. usdchf moves more like eurousd.
Dave
Last edited by xxDavidxSxx; 02-18-2007 at 11:40 PM.
As of a few moments ago I am running bipoler on the designated real money account.
I was funding through pay pal. They only do 2k at a time. The first 2k sent was sent back because it was received under my company name.(oops)
Pay pal says it will take 2-4 business days to transfer funds back to my bank. So I wired 1500 to the account and when the other 2k clears, I'll wire it too making the initial deposit 3500.
Thats cool. Gives me a couple days to run on 1500 with relatively small $risk.
Here is the settings I will be running on 1 hr chart. usd/jpy, euro/usd, chf/usd
I switched from audusd to chfusd because aud was opening max trades too often on forward tests. usdchf moves more like eurousd.
Dave
Hope it goes well for you. The only advise I can give you is not to over-leverage yourself with this type of EA.
Hope it goes well for you. The only advise I can give you is not to over-leverage yourself with this type of EA.
Good luck!
thanks for the support.
I ran all my forward testing on 1% risk and had no problems. So I am running now on .5% (1/2)percent risk, to be on the safe side.
The zip file on my last post contains the .set file I am using. It should back test on all the majors at least 4 months back, with out problems.
How ever on back tests I had it margine call, then ran it across the same peroid 3 more times and didn't margine call. ( great example of flawed back tester)
So results may vary. If it does bust on those settings, back the TP down to 18. But the pips setting only worked over a long range when set to 30 or higher. Cann't go lower than 18 on a 30 pip setting or it won't make money.
23 is the max target I would go with, and you can move pips setting to 35 to spread them out another 20 pips total on 5 open orders.
The equity exit only works good if running 1 chart 1 pair per account.
I am running 3 charts/pairs so once they all get open orders equity target won't work. (based on past forward testing)
If it could only look at the pairs profit and not account profit then it would work even running on multiple pairs.
I ran all my forward testing on 1% risk and had no problems. So I am running now on .5% (1/2)percent risk, to be on the safe side.
The zip file on my last post contains the .set file I am using. It should back test on all the majors at least 4 months back, with out problems.
How ever on back tests I had it margine call, then ran it across the same peroid 3 more times and didn't margine call. ( great example of flawed back tester)
So results may vary. If it does bust on those settings, back the TP down to 18. But the pips setting only worked over a long range when set to 30 or higher. Cann't go lower than 18 on a 30 pip setting or it won't make money.
23 is the max target I would go with, and you can move pips setting to 35 to spread them out another 20 pips total on 5 open orders.
The equity exit only works good if running 1 chart 1 pair per account.
I am running 3 charts/pairs so once they all get open orders equity target won't work. (based on past forward testing)
If it could only look at the pairs profit and not account profit then it would work even running on multiple pairs.
Dave
big deal. nobody care about your result and nobody care about you who are a disgrace to all Goblin thread. troublemaker. leave.
Linear Mode
