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Yep, that makes sense, thanks for the heads up regarding over-optimizing.
The strategy I am trying to develop involves taking small profits and (hopefully) a nice percentage of wins versus losses. If you check the screenshot you will see it had 85% profitable trades in 2006. If I run it on 2005 data I get about 75% wins. The forward testing I am doing has 80% wins at the moment, but like said I will let it run at least for a month, then see if I can tweak it up, test again and then decide if I will spend a little on a real test.
I still need to get the MQ up, so far I have it up to little less than 70%.
Oh, and I was wondering today for about 2 hours why my MetaTrader isn't working (prices don't change) only to figure out that it's weekend and forex is closed on weekends, he he
, then see if I can tweak it up, test again and then decide if I will spend a little on a real test.
The problem with tweaking is you're probably tweaking because your EA is doing poorly. That's the worst time to tweak. Let it ride through the bad times. Let yourself see just how bad it does. You'll learn more by watching it fail and discovering why it failed, than if you tweak it everytime is starts doing bad.
Another thing to consider, and this is just my opinion, is to stop trying to create an EA. You sound like you're fairly new to trading (please correct me if I'm wrong). Spend your time learning to actually trade the market, rather than finding a 'system' (EA) that will beat the market. When you have a manual trading system that you believe will work, then you can create an EA that can mechanize part of it.
For instance, maybe you develop a trading model that has specific, mechanical entries, but that requires your discretion as to when to exit. Create an EA that enters based on you rules and then emails you so that you can come manage your trade. Maybe the both the entries and exits are discretionary, but certain setups signals (not entry signals) occur frequently. Have your EA watch for the setups and notify you. Then you can come to the computer to see if you get an actual entry signal.
Yes, I am very fresh to Forex. The main reason I am working on an EA is I don't have much time over the week to trade manually yet on the other hand I have a lot of time over the weekends. And last two weekends I spent mostly learning and reading everything I could find about Forex and technical indicators.
Like said I am going to run this expert for at least a month to see how it goes. I will also post my results here. I don't want to rush anything and I will not be risking any real money until I feel comfortable with my Forex skills (which may take for a while ).
I am forward testing this EA of mine and for now it has 6 wins and 1 loss, a total of +56 pips. As for "tweaking" I mostly meant testing different TP/SL levels. Right now I have TP 13 and SL 20 and I'm afraid the drawdown would be too big if it looses a number of trades in a row.
Somewhere I read that not having a position is a position. The idea behind my EA is to ALWAYS have a position, do only 1 trade at a time at take small profits. I may be completely off with my EA, but it doesn't cost me anything to give it a try.
Ok, see attached results for the first few days of forward testing in a $3000 demo account. It has 12 wins and 3 losses, total profit +$900. I have striked out trades that are not from this EA of mine.
Seems to be doing quite well for now, but somehow I don't trust it too much because it is... well, just too simple.
Ok, see attached results for the first few days of forward testing in a $3000 demo account. It has 12 wins and 3 losses, total profit +$900. I have striked out trades that are not from this EA of mine.
Seems to be doing quite well for now, but somehow I don't trust it too much because it is... well, just too simple.
Will see how it does over a month...
Some of those entries are spot on. This EA runs on the daily chart?
I will post both the EA and detailed report, but not before a month of testing as I want to see how it goes in the longer run.
One thing troubles me, this EA is doing quite well on forward testing so far (since the image I posted it had another 4 wins / 0 losses, my $3000 demo account is up to $4340 within a week), but when I run it with the same settings in strategy tester (90% MQ) it doesn't give good results. For year 2005 the total loss is more than $500, for year 2006 so far the loss is $400.
To be honest I'm also a little embarrassed about it's simplicity and to be even more honest I don't completely understand (yet) how it works in detail. But like said before, the main idea is to ALWAYS have a position, do one trade at a time and take small profits. And so far it seems to have a good indication of what position to take (buy or sell).
As I am fresh to Forex I just may have that thing called "beginner's luck"
).
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