I would like to open a new thread exploring time based pattern analysis.
As a base for the thread we can start reading my article at mql4 which investigate best trading hours using metatrade 4 for analysis.
Using MetaTrader 4 for a Time Based Pattern Analysis - MQL4 Articles
Starting from this base it should be interesting sharing results of investigation
on other currency pair, using other trend detection signals, using other time frames and so on.
Results will give statistical information about best and worst trading time intervals for each currency pair, for technical indicators or for any other useful parameter suggested for this purpose.
Other interesting arguments will be effective trailing stop to be used in exit strategies related to this way to enter the market.

Best wishes,
Giampiero

Hi,
I was wondering if anybody has tried an indicator based on percentage of price change in a certain amount of time change...say if the price moved up/down X percent in X period of time. Is there already an indicator like this?

Yeah, it's called a longer time candle and volatility. Think about it.

This indicator based on pivot point price change ..it can shows percentage up or down

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Forex Indicators Collection

Attached Files

FerruFx_Multi_info+_light_chart_v1.1.ex4 (80.8 KB, 50 views)

Thanks Prasxz for pointing me in the right direction. (I should've been more specific, I needed the mq4. I wanted to look at the logic in the code for use on another indi so I found another FerruFX.mq4).

Giampiero, your article suggests an interesting concept that is very well worth exploring. Firstly, time based trend detection is a very viable paradigm. What I like about the idea you put forth in your article is the overall pluggable management of the whole process relating to time based analysis. This basic shell seems like a perfect container to insert a time based trend detection model which can have two parameters... entry time(X) and exit time(Y). Exit time... (TP) can also be an indicative guide which can optionally be replaced by a price % run adjustable setting per unit time which is in turn determined by the pair's volatility expectation; again, determined by the original distance between time X and time Y. In terms of risk management (stop level, etc), the key is still with the detection model's ability to select optimum RR and (optionally) hit rate scenarios. What are your thoughts..?

....An exhaustive study of random TimeSlices with MAE and MFE studies might be helpful?

The trouble is I do not have the time...

ES

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First of all sorry for the long time passed from your reply.

Using the code in the article you can play with different entry times, opening a time windows for enter trades and also set a maximum holding period. During this time I had tried a lot of different combinations without having any particular interesting result. Every time I decided to close a trade after a particular time all results seemed worst than those without any limit. Maybe an exit strategy different from a TP or trailing stop should be more effective.

Actually I have reached this situation: 3 different reference price, each based on actual volatility (not expected, which are your suggestions ?). These are: a First Target price, a Stop Loss and a Trailing Stop to be entered when first target price is matched.
Now First Target Price become next Target Price and the process trace the price until the trade is closed by the stop loss.
Again some attempt to create a dependence with time in the target price, for example reducing by a progressive factor while time passes, but with no interesting results.

About risk management I think that to tune up a trading system for better performance you must reduce as much as possible the number of variable ad parameters you are controlling.
Stopping the time at a single hour for each trade reduce the complexity of you system by one dimension and let you concentrate on other occurrence. Introducing a simple risk management that vary your lot size, during optimization, can lead to very uncertain results, maybe during a period better performance give you good results that are amplified by the risk management module and close your eyes to other period in which your system does not perform as you should expect. So better always leave as much as possible every test field with as much parameter unchanged as possible.
Other exit strategy should be investigated, I tried some exit signal but with no good results, so I should find something else.

I like your idea of volatility expectation. Let's figure out which direction to search.

ciao,
Giampiero

Can we know something more about this FerruxFX indicator ?

This thread Multi-indics indicator