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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 10:27 AM
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After seeing the log with "level X" comments, a question pops to my mind (the same as before when I saw the lot sizes at the report):

Is this strategy a variation of a martingale system?
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikkom View Post
After seeing the log with "level X" comments, a question pops to my mind (the same as before when I saw the lot sizes at the report):

Is this strategy a variation of a martingale system?
The answer is: no.

Our EA uses correlation for placing the hedge orders for the first level. If the trade goes against us, we use evenly spaced grid to place more levels. Each level is totally independent from each other and has its own take profit value, while in martingale systems the highest level must have huge lots to cover the loss of all previous levels. We do not do that.

In our system we use grid only to take advantage of the market situation and make even more profit. It is because if we assume that level 1 will eventually get in profit, then level 2 - X will also get in profit. So we collect extra profits while waiting till level 1 gets in profit, which may take even a few weeks.

Our EA has a setting for increasing the lots for each level, but one can set the step to 0, so the lots will not be increased with each level. Our typical settings are: we start at 0.5% (MarginToUse) for the first level and we increase by 0.3% for each level. These are external inputs so users are free to change those settings.

If you set MarginStep to big value, you could make it a kind of martingale, but we do not recommend to do so.

You are welcome to signup for a free evaluation so you can check it out!

Last edited by hotstorm; 05-26-2008 at 12:01 PM.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 12:11 PM
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Thanks, that was informative.

About the trial, sorry but I don't want to use black box systems of any kind, I want to have access to all the information on how the system invests my money. The exceptions would be long time performed managed accounts of course. I want to have a very long validation period before I want to commit my money to something.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotstorm View Post
It is stable now but can still have some little bugs. But the testing looks quite ok already. However, we are not sure how much reliable the tick data is. We are considering to buy the tick data to make sure our tests are more reliable, which is quite expensive to buy.

For now it can serve us as a picture how it goes but we are not 100% sure the tests are reliable enough.

This is the beginning and end of test report for gbpjpy/eurchf hedge. I attach the full test report. The report shows 400% in 3 months (Oct 2007 - Dec 2007). We enhanced our strategy recently and we are hoping that backtester shows correct results (or at least nearly correct)

Code:
Start DateTime=10/1/2007 00:00:01
StartBalance= $10,000.00

10/1/2007 15:42:41--- Level 1 Added Sym1 Lots=0.050 Sym2 Lots=0.150 Profit target=$16.00 MarginUsed=0.00
10/1/2007 16:01:21--- Closed Level 1 Profit Taken $17.96
10/1/2007 16:01:21--- Balance=10,017.96 Equity=10,017.96 Lowest Equity=9,990.95 Trade Time=0 Hrs 18 Mins

*****************

12/31/2007 21:21:11--- Level 2 Added Sym1 Lots=0.261 Sym2 Lots=0.782 Profit target=$83.40 MarginUsed=398.15
12/31/2007 21:31:01--- Closed Level 2 Profit Taken $84.03
12/31/2007 21:31:01--- Balance=40,180.17 Equity=40,152.96 Lowest Equity=9,962.23 Trade Time=0 Hrs 9 Mins

12/31/2007 21:49:01--- Closed Level 1 Profit Taken $65.53
12/31/2007 21:49:01--- Balance=40,245.70 Equity=40,245.70 Lowest Equity=9,962.23 Trade Time=4 Hrs 43 Mins

Ending Balance=$40,245.70 Equity=$40,245.70
Lowest Equity=$9,962.23 Lowest Margin=$7,316.92
0 Levels Still Open
What are the pairs backtested?
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elepoutre View Post
What are the pairs backtested?
citation of my previous post, I think you can find the answer there...

This is the beginning and end of test report for gbpjpy/eurchf hedge. I attach the full test report. The report shows 400% in 3 months (Oct 2007 - Dec 2007). We enhanced our strategy recently and we are hoping that backtester shows correct results (or at least nearly correct)
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 05-26-2008, 10:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotstorm View Post
The report shows 400% in 3 months (Oct 2007 - Dec 2007). We enhanced our strategy recently and we are hoping that backtester shows correct results (or at least nearly correct)[/i]
400% in 3 months means the following:

begin: 10 000 (eur or $)
3 months = 40 000
6 months = 160 000
9 months = 640 000
1 year = 2 560 000
1 year 3 months = 10 240 000
1 year 6 months = 40 960 000
1 year 9 months = 163 840 000
2 years = 655 360 000

So it's $655 million in 2 years with deposit of 10k.

I don't doubt that the system works but let's just say that the above results are probably a bit too positive
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 05-27-2008, 05:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikkom View Post
400% in 3 months means the following:
So it's $655 million in 2 years with deposit of 10k.

I don't doubt that the system works but let's just say that the above results are probably a bit too positive
I never said this is how it is going to be, although I would love if it was I said that back tester might have some bugs yet and that our tick data might not be as precise. We do not consider the backtester very much reliable yet. Somebody asked for some test report and here it is. That is all.

Furthermore, backtester does not have lot size limitations, i.e. for mini max lot is 50 lots and for standard account max lot is 100. This is not implemented there yet. There are also other aspects... I only showed what we have now.
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2008, 06:34 AM
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FYI,
The latest version is clearly the best version yet. Running very well.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2008, 09:22 AM
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TradeGoose v3.04

Last week we enhanced the strategy and (even though backtester is not perfect) we changed our EA settings based on the best backtest results.

We did not want to start fresh demos because we wanted to keep our current history of trading this system, so we accepted about 5% loss (BTW: if we waited two more days, there would be no loss, but oh well...) and installed new improved version with new settings. The loss has recovered within a few days, see attached image (full forward test statement available at our website, it is automatically exported from MT4 every hour)

If you are wondering if we trade this system live, then I can tell you that I do. It is making me nice real money .

If you are wondering why do we sell this system if it is so "great"... why not, right?
Attached Images
File Type: gif statement_gbpjpy_eurchf.gif (9.5 KB, 236 views)

Last edited by hotstorm; 05-29-2008 at 11:11 AM.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 05-29-2008, 01:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hotstorm View Post
Somebody asked for some test report and here it is. That is all.
I was probably one who asked so I don't complain..

Sorry about asking too many questions but it seems that the statemets at your site are from demo, have you tested this strategy on real money account? Usually tick based methods tend to fail because of the execution risk. For example with Alpari there is a noticeable difference between demo and real money accounts.

cheers
Mikko
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