If you have a system that has 75% hit rate, with the winning trades bigger than the loosers on average (even if if they are equal), then you don't need any MM. Your system is hugely profitable taking 1 contract on each trade...

I don't think that Igor claims 75% hit rate anymore. It was probably for a previous version...
The hit rate and the profitability trading one contract can easily be checked from Igor's Excel sheet: column C (pips)
hit rate is below 50%

Read this posting again!... http://www.forex-tsd.com/247637-post176.html
How much more do I need to put it in BOLD letters and underline it.
The hitrate on END OF DAY BASE is 75%.
40 trading days. 30 winning days and 10 losing days = 75% hitrate on end of day base.
No where do I claim that on an all-trades-base I have a hitrate of 75%. The hitrate over all trades has never been more then 50%.

If that would be the case I would have found the holy grail because it would give proof of inventing a system that can predict the markets.
I have said already many times on this forum and on webinars and in my room that a system like that is impossible to make.

And I am glad that you see the logic that one does not need any MM with such a system.
So as long as nobody can invent a system like that we need to make profits with the help of MM.
My choise and in the room is with my MM and if somebody wants to call it "La bouchere" that's fine for me. Because this MM will give me more gratification of having nearly every day a new all time high on my equity curve then any other system that can slowly build up a drawdown but that needs weeks to recover from. Been there done that (for 13 years).....and have enough of it....


Let me explain one more time to you and hopefully you take the time to really read what I write now and if nescessary read it again. It is no attack or defence but help...

I have the feeling that many traders are hypocrits about my system (that is no accusation to you personally).
Every trader had in the past several if not many times, believe in a system. You did your backtests, you checked everything possible, you start to trade, you keep nicely track of all your trades in spreadsheet, you respect your S/L, you take your T/P's where nescessary but still after a while it goes the wrong way and over a longer period of time till you start to build up losses till you have enough of it.
You stop, you accept your loss. But still you believe that you could make money true trading so you look for an other strategy. But important is that you did not burn your account. You traded that system till you felt you had enough loss.

People look to my system and scream murder and hell and claim and shout it can burn your account. NO. it can not burn your account. If someone has enough loss he will stop. In the very same way as with any other system that he traded before.
The apraoch between my system and ALL other systems is that you will not see long drawdowns where you do not recover from and where you spend way to much time on. If it goes the wrong way it will go very fast. The more profit you are aiming for the faster it can make you to stop to trade.
For all the same this happens in 48Hours.
But it will also make you to go very fast in profit. And once you are 6-7000pips in profit you are well out of the danger zone.
It will also make that if you have a drawdown and your recover from it that you are very nicely rewarded for it. Where an other system does not reward you in any way after recovering from a drawdown and all the time spend.
It will also make that nearly every day you have that nice feeling of making again a nice profit and again an new all time high on the equity curve.
It will also make that you have the reward of making more money then the compleet weekly range.
So mentaly it gives a lot more benefits and with more then a reasonable chance to make an extreme profit then any other system.
But if you ask me that my system is 100% waterproof then I will always say honest and correctly, NO and don't try to be a hypocrit because there is no such system out there that can give you a 100% guarantee on profits and Max losses.
But try to stay fair and honest to yourself. Somebody who has the goal of making 50% on a yearly base witch is in professional terms already an extreem profit can take a drawdown of 20K! pips with my system without blinking an eye.
But somebody who has a goal of making 1000% in year witch is in professional terms non-existing, does not need to complain if it goes against him so fast that he could come in a situation where he needs to stop trading and accept his loss.

I don't know what more I can add to make you understand this reward/risk profile of my system. I do not cheat my results, I help people where nescessary if they have questions or if they need help in my room, I develloped the MAIN indicators myself, I develloped the MM myself (even if it did exist already), I ask a very small compensation for all the explaining and help I give in the room from morning till evening and every day of the month...
So if there is something that is still bothering you or anybody else beside everything that I came forworth with please say so...

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Hello to every one,
As I pointed out in post 1066, I was going to make an extensive study of Igors system. I send it about a week ago to him to correct possible errors or make some statements. I received some remarks and critics (that is okay ), corrected them or at least made some remarks.

My pure attention was to understand this system, getting to the bottom of it, finding the good and more important the week parts.
Before I start to trade a system I really have to know what is going on and must know the risk. Otherwise I'm ending like many others. And I had this experience already and I tell you that was not nice.
My approach is therefore:
1. challenge the strategy (this has absolutely nothing to do with criticizing the system or the autor of it)
2. back-testing
3. demo-testing in a real as possible environment
4. test with a small live account

I did challenged the strategy with the analysis I made, back tested it and also demo-tested it (but maybe not long enough).
All these information are put together in the Analysis Report which is attached. Be carefull it is a 40 page report .
These are just my results, based on WHC and Alpari and the historical data I have. I don't say that the results are without errors but I tried as much as possible to avoid any (most tests are done more than once) and to stick strictly to the rules (I hope that I understood them correctly, if not correct me after reading the report).
Read it with an open mind and come to your own conclusions.
I still test the system and try to make the best out of it. If I'm convinced that it works I will be Igors best support, because than I know all the cons and pros.
Happy reading and make many pips.

Regards

Antomi (alias Mibel)

Attached Files

Analysis of the Super-Safe-Q-Pattern-System.pdf (874.7 KB, 61 views)

Antomi,
I'm not going to spend 40 pages to respond on your pdf file. It is going to be breef but ACURATE.

You have send your pdf file to me and asked me what my opinion was on your so called "analysis". I believe as the develloper of the system that I am best placed to give indeed a CORRECT opinion on it:

I responded to you :
-That your pdf file is not correct, it is not corresponding to the rules of the system.
-It does not show in any way the results that we have in the room nor what the members made on an alpari platform or a whc platform or any other broker.
-That we never used the opening of a signal bar to make the official results because that would be trading the past.
-That you even asked in posting #1067 for the rules of the 20-contract-filter (witch I did not gave to you) and that you write in your pdf file about the 20-contract reset-rule as you pretend to know them but is completely un-correct.
-That your results show drawdowns we never ever had. Even no way close.
-That it shows exagurated profits we never made.
-That you say that it shows unstability where it is the compleet opposite. Kimmy was -2300pips dawn on the system because of 3 errors that she made and after 24 hours she completely recoverd. No unstable system would allow that.
- That your hitrate is completely uncorrect and witch is normally easy to calculate in the excel spreadsheet.
- That you have hardly spend any time in the room.
- And most important that me and the members of the room do not agree with your report in any way because it is miles away from what our system is doing or is really about.

You asked my opinion when you have send that file to me 2 weeks ago. I told you that your report has absolutly nothing to do with our system and that you made up your own rules.
And now you ask in your posting if your report would not be correct that you would like to be corrected ?!...from whome ?... Don't you think that as the develloper of my system that I am the only one who can correct you?..witch I did in a mail but you had typed these 40 pages already and trowing it away would feel as a waist of time?...

So next time if you want to make a SERIOUS and ACURATE ANALYSIS make sure that you don't need to post or add comments in the way of ...I hope everything is done correctly and I hope I understood the rules correctly and I should have spend more time on demo testing and that you made a lot of mistakes while trading (in posting#1067). Because the people who will read this, not with an open mind but with an analitic mind, will understand that your "analysis" has no serious, acurate and reliable value and does not represent our system nor the results we make.
The only thing it proofs is that you know how to work with adobe acrobat.

So after having a look to the system that you invented allow me that I go back to my system that we trade in the trading room.

iGoR

PS. Your next challenge should be to write a manual in detail how to build a nuclair power plant after you had a 3 hour touristique visit to it.

.

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

That is exactly the kind of comment I expected.
Many things could be said but everything speaks for itself.
Anyhow I wish you all the best with your strategy and that all members will prosper. And this I doesn't mean in a sarcastic way!

All the best and many pips.

Antomi

How could they know the content ?...because you have send that pdf file already 2 weeks ago before you posted it here or do I need to post a printscreen of your e-mail to me?!

You say that my posting is exactly as you expected. Of course you knew because I gave you my comments in the mail to you where you asked my opinion. And pointed you out on all the errors that your pdf file shows.


What was your purpose of your pdf file ?....To realy thoroughly analize my system. In a 100% acurate and relaible way. Or to have your moment of glorie by showing what kind of test you can do and how nicely you can make a report or resume in adobe acrobat?...
If you realy wanted to analize my system in a reliable and acurate way you would have contacted me (witch you did to ask my opinion) would have corrected it after I gave you my comments and made sure that your report can not be undermined or discussed because you do not know the rules. Whats the value of an analysis if one does not know the rules of the system that he wants to analize ??...

In your pdf file you try with elements that you invent, to proof instability of our system. If you would really know something about systems you would realize and know that the most important element in our system is stability!
If you know about a system without changing the parameters in any way and that works on every pair and every index, future, market as oil gold S&P-mini dow-jones etc... then show it to me.
If it can perform on all of them, that will proof stability.
And not trying to proof instability by the difference between a couple of trades between an alpari platform and a WHC platform. Every nitwit knows that all the MT4 brokers show differences in data and that will lead to different signals.
Does that proof instability of a system?..NO it proofs that they are market makers and that each broker has its own data.


Your whole document is based on taking in trades on the opening price of the bar that gives a signal.
What is the value of an analysis on trading results if you take the opening price of a signal bar...ZERO (that is trading the past?!). You realized this after I told you in the mail with my comments but you descided to leave your whole pdf file and all its conclusions as it is.

At some point you take a lot of effort to try to proof our hitrate. It is clear and for every bit of a nitwit to take the spread sheet that was posted of the november results and take all the trades, sort them so all losses and all winners are placed together and you would clearly see that your hitrate is not correct.
You come up with some sort of an empiric equation to show how high the hitrate needs to be to be profitable. That proof that you give is again completely wrong.
The MM on itself is childishly simple to understand that with a profit that would be equal to a loss one has a B/E result at 33% hitrate. If one 1 winning trade covers 2 losing trades that is 33winning trades that covers 66 losing trades Ex. -1x1,-2x1,-3x1,-4x1,-5x1,-6x1,+7x1,+7x1,+7x1 = 0. Or 6losses and 3 wins or 33% positive hitrate=B/E.
If one then knows (or calculates) that the avg winning trade is 1.4 x times bigger then the avg losing trade then it is again childishly simple to understand that if one would have a hitrate of 33% that the system is already profitable. Ex (-1x1),(-2x1),(-3x1),(-4x1),(-5x1),(-6x1),(7x1.4),(7x1.4),(7x1.4)= +8.4. Witch actualy means that this last trade we nearly don't need. To be precise with a 1.4 avg win/loss ratio at 27% hitrate we are at B/E.
Our system is over the whole period now that we traded, at a hitrate of 44.29%. So again easy to understand why we are so profitable. We have a mathematical edge in our favour of 17!% (44%-27%).
Where casino's have only a 2.7% edge in their favour because of the zero if one plays black or red on the roulette. And the casino don't complain on making nice money.


Your end conclusion is that our system shows unstability and could be improved to be more robust and safe?...but you come to a MaxDD of ONLY -18% but so called made an extreme + 280% profit ( in 1 month ?!?).
What kind of a joke is this ?!..making +280% profit in a month with a risk of only 18% loss !?!...and trying to tell that this system can be improved ?!... You say in your conclusion an other additional filter should be added to be on the safe ground ?!? What do you expect, making 500% profit in a month with only 5% drawdown ?!

Our system never made these kind of profits and will never make this in 1 month time and also never made that kind of a drawdown that you say.
If a system would be capable of making +280% profit and with a MaxDD of only -18% then I don't think that any kind of trader would change even the smallest element to his system even if this result would be over a whole year trading instead of 1 month like you say.
If a system would be capable of doing this I believe that a trader would even not dare to sneeze anymore in front of his pc to make sure it would not change his system.

So if you want to proof something do it with expertease and knowledge.
If you want to take the time to write 40 pages so you could apear as an expert you should better have taken that time to learn the system and the rules and the backtesting and demo trading as you say so yourself.
Till then your report is about a system that you invented and has no value what so ever to proof somethig about OUR system that we trade in the trading room.
The proof on OUR system are the results that I post on every day trading since we started and that are wintessed by the members in the room who spend all day long and every day in the room and even by you the few moments you have spend in the room.

Attached Files

working sheet.zip (368.9 KB, 20 views)

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

I like so much the childish mathematics, specially when they are wrong that I will comment on that basic mistake that is typically the mistake a child will make in the mathematics course...

What is said above is that a system having a 33% hitrate with a TP = SL is BE and that a system with 33% hitrate and TP = 1.4 SL is winning if a particular MM is used. (as you will see after the MM has in fact no importance for the demonstration).
Of course a child will believe that because it sounds quite logical and reasonable when we first think about it. But stories about probabilitities are ot always as simple as it seems.

As a small disgression I guess most of you knows the case where you have one red and 2 black cards hidden and you have to find the red. You pick one and the guy who hidded the cards show you one black card and you have the option to switch. Is it better to keep your choice or to switch? A child would say that it doesn't matter because there is one red and one black left and the proba is 50%. But that is wrong, it is better to switch.

So let's come back to our system. Let first consider it without the MM. The system as a negative expectation (both with TP = SL or TP= 1.4 SL).
If we consider that each trade is independent, the total expectation is the sum of each individual expectation that is of course negative.
Notice that applying any MM with different amounts for each trade make that we get different mathematical expectations in terms of amounts, but the expectation as a percentage of the trade amount is always the same (it is a ratio like 33% for instance).
This principle explains why systems that try to change the sizes of their
bets relative to how many wins or losses have been seen (assuming an independent trials process) are doomed to fail. The summation of negative
expectation is always a negative expectation! The ponderation of each individual trade doesn't change anything.
In a negative expectation game, there is no money-management scheme that will make you a winner

And for one time that is 100% mathematically proven

Otherwise could you imagine the results.
The roulette with one 0 has over 48.5% hitrate with black vs red and TP = SL.
If what the child believe would be true then you could easily see what it would mean....

Strange that we proof the oposite.... ..Or do you consider us being lucky over 600 trades... .....what are the odds being lucky over 600 trades

Back to serious.
You say it is mathematical proven that it is doomed to loos.
I agree with you on this one. But you need to look to that mathematical proof with a perseption of reward/risk.

Let me give an example: We do not trade martingale at all. But lets take martingale as the example:
If one starts off to trade with 1$ and every time double up after a loss (as A. Elder calculated in his book Trading for a Living) the moment that one would have 36 consecutive losses he needs to put up the whole world capital on the 37th trade.
So that means it is not possible to trade this system. But one can say: what are the odds that one could have 37 consecutive losses in a row ?...
The mathematician is going to answer that mathematicaly it can even be more then 37 times how small the possibility can be but there is that possibility..
So that means that people accept that indeed it is mathematical proven it is doomed to fail. So exit martingale.

Well I don't look to it that way. It is not because a system shows that mathemtical it proofs to fail that one can not trade a system.
Our system is not martingale but has also an element of increasing positions. If the mathematician would look to all our elements he would calculate that we can get in the same practical problem with our system of not having enough money NOT after 37 consecutive trades but that mathematical, that there is a point where you COULD blow up an account even how small the chances are.
Well I concentrate on the extreme small posibility that this will not happen where several people here on this forum concentrate on the possibility it can happen.

The reason I concentrate on the probability it can not happen is that I compare the risk to all the other systems or ways of trading, stocks or bonds or even a saving account.
Every other way of trading has also the risks of blowing up account or losing serious amounts of money even that they do not use any increase of positions.
There is no system out there that can give a 100% guarantee on making profits or on a limited amount of losses. One can only hope or pray to not loos more money then expected or to make the money one has hoped for or that backtest predicted to make.

And here is it where a group of people do not accept what I say. They think in this way, that before we start to trade that it is already proven with my aproach that one has the theoretical and mathematical chance that it blows up an account. And with the system they use that is not proven in any way. So they say that for this reason one should not trade my system. Because they still believe that their system or that there is a system out there that would always make money no matter what. They believe in that holy grail. They say no but they do.
I have let go of that idea and trade my way. Knowing that we can loos money. Blowing up an account ? NO because at any given point one can stop and accept his losses. In the mean time making very nice profits and realizing that we are traders and that the risk of making nice profits is FAR BIGGER then losing serious amounts of money. And on this last one the mathematician would confirm this 100% that indeed with all of the elments of our system it is mathematical proven that the odds are in favour of making money then losing money.

Only those who dream and believe in a system that would give them a 100% guarantee on making profits and not blowing up an account are the ones that try to proof over and over again true excel sheets and pdf files etc etc that our system is not worth trading.

The ones that are real traders and risk managers realize that trading is calculating the odds of risk against the odds of profit. And for each individual that risk can be different. The moment a trader is fuly awere that the R/R is for him in his favour and he accepts this then there is no reason that somebody else should say that one should stay away from a certain system.

The interesting fact that I noticed is that those who shout the most are those who have the least money to trade from but want to have the biggest guarantees. That is not personal to you at all. But it is something very important that I noticed that those who trade from a couple of 1000$want to have 100% guarantees. Where other people who trade from several 100K or even millions of dollars will say...OK I lost some money but that is the risk of trading. As long as I know that the risk of making money is bigger then losing it, I take that risk instead of leaving my money on a saving account.

For myself and the majority of members in our group, we know and accept the risks of my system in combination with the unusual MM recovery plan. I never claimed it is the holy grail. But I know that it will make much more money then the overal amount of systems out there and the chance to stop after having to much losses is even smaller then all those other systems out there. Because they depend on market conditions where we depend on a mathematical edge that is highly in our favour. More in our favour then the overall systems out there.
And if there is ever a point where we need to stop because of taking to much losses. Well so be it...that's trading. Trading is with money that one can afford to loos. That is the very 1st rule that everybody learns when he started trading. Till then we are making exceptional profits.

Regards...iGoR

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

More like, as soon as you buy your brand new red car, the wheels fall off while your friend borrowed the car to take a hot honey for a ride downtown and your skin turns yellow from embarrassment. Hahahahahahaha.

Of course Igor won't return your money. It is his only source of income.

Keep martingaling fools, keep martingaling

__________________
My personal up to date trading journal.