my DD was exactly 17.86% and no 70% 80% or 30% the last time you are saying. Dont understand you that you have overseen such a big difference. It looks you are disgraphic or so. If i loose them all, it is not very probable otherwise i wouldnt be here with Igor almost 1 year already, but offcourse it is possible as with any good system around, and everybody in this bussines should know that he can loose money. But i can afford loose this money so no problem.

Just to remember evaluation is a serious thing.

Facts must be written/posted/described. And proofs must be showed.

Otherwise is flaming or non sense posts.

__________________

89 euro is not huge price for evaluation, i think. Igor every day showing the results. Its great system, and EXELLENT money management.

Glad you think that way. Without mensioning that I gave a 1000pip profit guarantee or I refund the 89€ emmidiatly back at the end of the month.

The system met up already to the guarantee: +1407pips profit after 1 week.

regards...iGoR

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

This is NOT a personal attack ! ja ?

First, to avoid any confusion, a simple and usefull definition, so everyone is speaking the same language : the "Expected return" is the ratio Win*Probability of win / Loss*(1-Probability of win). (its the equivalent of the "ProfitFactor", which is the mesured (no predicted) Expected return).

I was very intrigated by the claim that a strategy with an Expected return less than one can become profitable by the use of some magical money management. (Igor said that his MM is able to turn a strategy with 0.66 as Expected return into a profitable one).
At first look, the idea seems interesting : one win recovers two losses (the last one and the oldest one).
So as for obvious reasons it doesn't seems possible to discuss about this MM, I decided to write a simple script to simulate how it works. I wrote it in mq4 so everyone can easily check or modify the code if needed.
It use the pseudo-random number generator inbuild in mq4, and the counts of wins and losses are displayed so it's easy to check the validity of the randomness of the sequence (Simba, sorry, I didn't compute the Hurst exponnent).
To analyse another sequence, just change the RandomSeed parameter to what you want.
I have also add some interesting statistic, like the average contract size and the MM efficiency which is the ratio between the profit of the strategy with MM and the the profit of the strategy without MM but using the average contractsize.
The game can stop on two conditions : the Equity become lower than 0, or the contract size become higher than a predefined maximum.
There is no check about the margin needed, so it runs like with an infinite leverage.
All the money values are expressed in pips. The contract size unit is 1.
The strategy is only defined by its Expected return, but, to keep it simple with the spread, this Expected return is defined by these three parameters : WinPips, LossPips and WinProbability.
I let everyone build his own conclusions, but what is absolutely certain is that a loosing strategy (Expected return < 1) cannot become profitable by the use of this (nor any?) MM.
Regards,
Michel

Attached Files

MM Evaluation Tool.mq4 (4.2 KB, 39 views)

Hi Michel,

Win*Probability of win / Loss*(1-Probability of win)
22.7x50/19x(1-50)=1135 /931= 1.21!! that is a ratio that is 2x times as much as the one you calculated. If you want to check out out the avg.win and the avg loss check out all the trades that I have posted so far and you gonna come up with the same number as I show you here.

I do not take this posting as a personal attack.

The way you explain some things I feel you are cappable of having a debate on a certain level...even academic. No assumptions or what YOU feel or what you THINK.

So lets take it back again from where you start to build a formula and come up with a certain number or ratio.
I am going to keep it very simple so I myself and other could follow it.
I gonna explain in true mats but for everybody to understand without a mathematical background.

1st) Our system has a very accurate 50% hitrate. One can now say ..."very accurate 50%??"....50% is 50%.
But that is not always like that let me exaplin it with an ex.
One can live in a country that have of the year the temparture is +10° celcius and the tother half it is -10° celsuis. That makes 50% possibily of having above or bellow but we see that this 50% is with an other accuraty then flipping a coin where one can have easely a numerous amount of consecutive times a head or tail in a row. According a formula one can "proof" this. 1/2 x 1/2 1/2 x 1/2 ...etc.
The most consecutive losses we had now is 5 and I believe it will be very hard to beat this number. It will maybe succeed in having 6 or a 7 but the way our system is build will be the maximum.

3) When we calculate all trades without the MM then we see that the avg.winning trade 22.7pips(spread incl) is a little bit bigger then the avg. losing trade 19.0 pips spread included.
Mathematical we can come already to a very important FACT.
if we have a hitrate of 33% and with a winner and loser that are equal you have automaticaly a B/E situation. simple ex.
-1,-2,-3,-4,-5,+6,-6,-8,+10,-9,+12,+10 = B/E
8losses
4 profits =33%
But important is that the avg winning trade is a little bit bigger then the avg losing trade so that would mean if one is B/E in contracts that one should even have a little profit left.
But the most important element is that we do not have a 33% hitrate but have a 50% hitrate. THere is NO DOUBT what so ever and even mathematical a FACT and I am sure you will agree on this that over a longer period of time there is a 17% edge in favour of the system that can not be discussed.
For some people the number 17% will feel like small but in a trading system that is a hughe edge.

4) But it is not finshed yet. To come to the avg.win and the avg. loss I calculated all the losses together and devided by the maount of losing trades. For the winners I did exactly the same.
But when we look to the sequence how these losers and winners come then we see they do not come in a random way. It is very clear that once we are in a "recovery" with the MM plan that we see that the winners are bigger then the losses. The reason for this is that we have spcifiec rules on taking in a trade. When we take in a trade we need to clearly se that the profit we can take on this trade must be subsatialy bigger then the loss or risk we take on that trade. So have the personal choise to get in a trade yes or no.
In a casino one has always the same R/R ratio. If we take in a trade we can calculate that R/R ratio. So if we get a signal where we know that this particlar trade has a 50% hitratio but the profit of that praticular trade is 2x times as much then the loss we can have then it is again clear that this needs to be in favour of the system if you trade over a longer period.
That is proven by the fact that when we finish with a MM recovery that the contracts are indeed on B/E but it leaves us with enormous profits as I have given proof of that in posting #912 of the original topic:
-11/1/-11
-13/2/-26
-20/3/-60
-40/4/-160
13/5/65
-11/5/-55
-20/7/-140
-35/9/-315
-15/11/-165
-26/13/-338
16/15/240
-16/14/-224
45/17/765
-15/16/-240
-18/21/-378
10/26/260
-14/23/-322
44/30/1320
-28/25/-700
35/34/1190
11/27/297


The numbers in the middle are the amount of contracts according our MM plan. Place these numbers (in the middle) in an excel sheet and the total of these numbers is 0. Wich is totaly according the logics of the MM. Meaning that 1 winning trade errases 2 losses on the list.
BUT NOW if the reward and the risk would be the same like in the casino or flipping a coin then the TOTAL results in pips should be also or more or less zero.

But if you now add all the losses and profits that you can find in the 3rd collom then you will see that the system made a total profit of +1003!! (one thousand and three) pips.

And this is for all recoverys we do with our MM plan.
That means that even with a 33% hitrate we are extreemly profitable. So take a step furder then what normally one can mathematical proof

At the end of your posting you say that everybody can makes his own conclusions. But that is what people do in the room every day. That our system is extremely profitable.

I have the feeling that some people desperatly trying to proof that I give a losing system. That people desperatly try to calculate in my place what the outcomes or results will or would be.
Don't you think that I was not sceptical when I saw my numbers after running true some manual backtest ?...
Don't you think I was not sceptical that I saw that the hitrate and the av.win and the avg.los was under no infleance of consolidation or trend.
Don't you think that I was not sceptical when I saw that in the very narrow daily ranges we had 1 1/2 year ago that the outcome stayed just the same.

The way our system works, and I calculated over and over again, it is clear that this is an all time money making machine.

As you say in the beginning of your post : First, to avoid any confusion, a simple and usefull definition, so everyone is speaking the same language..
But we are not speaking the same language. That formula is not to be implemented on our systems nor to calculate the results or outcome of our system.

And it is a bit strange to see that you put so much effort (even programming EA's) in trying to proof that something does not work or is a losing strategy where it is clear for everybody to see and especialy the members in the room that this is an overal winning strategy....and you can say maybe now yes but in the future ??...But the numbers and calculations I have post here above stay always the same in every kind of market condition. Trend or consolidation or low or high volatility.


Friendly regards...iGoR

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Igor,

I am very happy that you have a profitable strategy !
I am not discussing about that.

The MM you have invented has retain my interest as something new.
I wrote a tool to evaluate it because I am not able to make a full mathematical theory about it and this tool allows me to evaluate how this MM is performing with strategies of different Expected returns, and different initial deposits.

If your strategy has 1.2 as Expected return, you can set WinPips at 12, LossPip at 10, WinProbability at 0.5 and let the script run.
You can also set WinPips at 41, LossPips at 41, and WinProbability at 0.5454. Both are exactly the same: they have the same Expected return.

"But we are not speaking the same language. That formula is not to be implemented on our systems nor to calculate the results or outcome of our system."
I am sorry about this fact, because the Expected return is the only concept meaningfull here.

Best Regards,
Michel

I have been thinking about your first sentence: This is not a personal attack! Ja?

If someone tryes to come up with "evidence" against YOU where you know of that it is false evidence would you take it as as a personal attack ?...yes or no.

So this is what you post : Where did you ever saw a posting where I said that I have a 0.66 expected return ???

You are heavely trying to put some words into my mouth.

In your posting you first try to proof to the people something that is based on a formula and the next step that you take in your posting is comming up with a ratio where no one knows how you come to that number or ratio.

So if you try to proof something to the people put your whole formula into numbers (with the help of all the trades that we made and that were wintessed by all the people in the video room) so everyone can follow your proof.

You can do that with the help of every single trade that has been posted on my topic and taken into account to come up with the results that we have.
If you do the same as I have done true and excel sheet then your spreadsheet is going to calculate for you that the expected pay off, where you try to cheat on, is 1.21 and not 0.6. (the ratio we have is 2x times as much or 100% more then your ratio).

So if you say that your posting is not a personal attack then I can tell you that if next time you come up with FALSE evidence I will take that as a personal attack.

I wish that you keep on posting your critical vieuw but come with CORRECT and academic evidence and not with false proof and cheating on your evidence that only proofs that the reason why you put so much effort in what you do is driven by the wrong motivation.

iGoR

PS. A previous poster tryed to proof that a 130$ drop from 690$ is equal to a 80% drawdown now you are doing something similar...what is wrong with you guys. Instead of saying YES someone has develloped a fantastic system. I am glad for him and MAYBE I could join his group ( of course if you are willing to pay for it as my poll says in the beginning of my topic)
And if you feel the opposite then no problem move over to the next topic.
Put your effort and aspecially your time in something constructive where you can benefit from.

__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

i remember igor stating 66 percent HITRATE.

and given the systems tp being more than its tight stoploss
it obviously means RETURN will be more than factor 1.0

i hope you can come around to agreeing to this, Michel.

your script tool i am sure is excellent and it should prove igor's MM is PROFITABLE
if you accept his system's RETURN is NOT 0.66
but more than factor 1.0.

Guys, who are not or have never been the member of Igor´s group, I have question to you - do you know what the word evaluation means? I think that majority of person’s seams not to know what that word means otherwise we would not have to read all that rubbish here. I see more personal attacks and shouting than objective feedback on system itself. Majority of persons who post here have absolutely no idea of what the system is all about and the reason is that they have never been in the room and they actually do not know what the system is all about.
In the main, commercial section, Igor has posted the results and all the members in the group have witnessed the results. So I think the results speak for them self there is nothing to argue. If one would like to post any evaluation one should become a member and try the system out and post then objective comments about it.
I have been member for that group now for second month now and I have to say that the system works very well, even beyond my wildest dreams if I may say that, no question about it. I think it is correct to say that if the system is not working the way Igor have gave proofs that it works would I have still be the member of the group, no I would not be a member any more cos I do not like to pay for something that is not working for me. But again the system works very well Igor have proved all over again.
So to sum up all the words: just become a member of the group and try the system out and if you still have any hesitation the post an evaluation. Otherwise sit on you hands and to not comment on something you do not know anything about.

Kristjan