Hello:

Greetings!

Does anybody here has the pdf copy of "The Secret Science of the Stock Market" by Michael Jenkins?
If so, please post it here.

Thank you in Advance.

Regards,
Sensho

Don't waste your time. The greatest 'secret' and the methods of unlocking anything withing the market is within yourself.

Don't chase the answer in some jackass book because you will still be lost afterward.

The title should tip you off in the first place that it is written by a complete tosser.

Skypilot

Dear Fellow Traders,

Everyone related to Stock Market is always focused on the goal of how much they can make buying/selling a stock, they forget to concern themselves with how much they risk loosing. Is it true that “The secret to great wealth in the stock market, is not big gains; its small losses”

Is this a strategy of keeping losses small? If we will win only 1 out of 3 times with our losers loosing 5% and our winners gaining 25% we can make extremely large profits. That’s do the math assuming that there is only 1 out of 3 winners. So if we make 9 trades of USD10,000 each in one month it means we will loose money on 6 and make money only 3. the 6 losers will cost us USD3000 (6*5% loss on each of USD 10,000 Trades) and the 3 winners will net us USD75000 (3*25% gain on each of USD 10,000 Trades) for a profit of USD 4,500

Regards
Mark

A test case for Wall Street justice
The trial begins Tuesday for two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers accused of fraud. But the government will have a harder time going after others, legal experts say.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers go to court Tuesday in the first, and so far only, prominent criminal trial stemming from the mortgage meltdown.

Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin are accused of painting a rosy picture of their portfolios, even though "the defendants believed that the funds were in grave condition and at risk of collapse," according to the prosecution.

Experts say the case against them is compelling, and the government wants to make them an example. But others say it will be hard to nail down anyone else.

Prosecutors blamed Cioffi and Tannin for causing Bear Stearns investors to lose more than $1 billion, alleging that their fraudulent behavior led to the collapse of their hedge funds and, subsequently, Bear Stearns. They have both pleaded not guilty and are out on bail: $4 million for Cioffi and $1.5 million for Tannin.

Jury selection is scheduled to begin Tuesday in U.S. District Court in Brooklyn, N.Y. Cioffi and Tannin could each face 20 years if convicted of securities fraud.

Cioffi could face an additional 20 years on charges of insider trading for moving $2 million of his own money out of a poorly-performing Bear Stearns fund and into a separate fund "for which he had supervisory responsibilities," according to prosecutors.

A spokesman for Tannin's legal defense declined to comment. Lawyers for Cioffi did not return messages.
Making an example

"I don't know whether it's a test case, but [it] certainly will test the government theory of going after Wall Street defendants who, according to the government, were less than forthright about the future prospects of their fund," said Robert Mintz, a former federal prosecutor who leads white collar defense at the law firm McCarter & English.

Ken Springer, a former FBI agent, certified fraud examiner and president of the consultant firm Corporate Resolutions, was more succinct: "I think this a line in the sand that the government is drawing and I think they're going to make an example."

Springer described this as a "pivotal case for the government to show that this kind of behavior is not acceptable" and he said the prosecution's evidence is "compelling."

The two defendants presented their hedge funds, which totaled some $1.4 billion in 2006, as "low risk" investments in AAA-rated pieces of collateralized debt obligations, backed by pools of securities such as mortgages, according to government lawyers.

By the spring of 2007, they allege the two men were having private conversations about the declining prospects of their funds and the impending meltdown. Tannin told Cioffi that the "subprime market looks pretty damn ugly" and he suggested that they "close the funds now," according to prosecutors.

"Notwithstanding their views to the contrary, the defendants led investors and creditors to believe that, despite the challenges presented in the market, the funds would continue to generate an increasing net asset value," wrote prosecutors, in a press release at the time of their June 19, 2008 indictment.

And on Sept. 22, prosecutors accused Cioffi, a New Jersey resident, of flying to Florida to try to retrieve documents from the Fort Myers-based Busey Bank, where he had attempted to obtain a $4.25 million line of credit. His lawyers deny that he was trying to snag the documents ahead of a federal subpoena, as the prosecutors allege.

Ken Rubinstein, an asset protection lawyer with the New York firm Rubinstein & Rubinstein, also believes that prosecutors have a strong case against Cioffi and Tannin, but that it's a unique situation.

"These are the only two that have come out because these are the only two where the facts are clear enough in the government's favor," he said.
Fraudulent - or just stupid?

Even though Cioffi and Tannin are the only fund managers charged with the fraudulent behavior that fueled the collapse, no one is alleging that they alone brought down Wall Street.

"I think it's clear that there's been a lot of fraud in the system," said Dick Bove, banking analyst for Rochdale Securities. "It's a multi-layered system, and at every layer people chose not to do the proper due diligence, which is criminal. Everywhere along the line there were excesses, and perhaps the biggest excesses [were from] the government itself, because it had an obligation [to prevent fraud.]"

Despite the rampant wrongdoing by white collars leading up to the market meltdown of 2007, Bove said that pinpointing fraudulent acts and perpetrators is complex and difficult.

"There would have to be some intensive investigating to ferret out the people who were doing these things and I don't know what the risk-reward will be," he said. "It's going to take a lot of work to figure out who they are."

Even when investigators find a couple of suspects, like Cioffi and Tannin, it can be difficult to prove that they had any intention of deliberately misleading investors, or if they were simply making stupid mistakes.

In this way, hedge fund investors are just as responsible for their demise as the portfolio managers, said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's.

"Nobody held a gun to these people's heads and told them to buy subprime mortgages," he said. "It's a combination of stupidity and overconfidence, and unfortunately, both were national epidemics."

But even if most of the pre-crash behavior on Wall Street can be attributed to lack of due diligence rather than deliberate fraud, Bove said that's hardly an excuse.

"Is it wrong? Goddamn right, it's wrong," he said. "Is anyone going to do anything about it? I sincerely doubt it."

"I think, in the end, that the defense is going to argue that some of the greatest minds in the economy were unable to predict the recession, so how could these two be held accountable?" said Mintz, the lawyer at McCarter & English.

When a company raises its dividend, its stock becomes more attractive to investors. Its share price rises. When a bank raises interest rates on its savings accounts, people deposit more money in the bank. It's the same way in the currency markets. Rising interest rates make a currency more attractive and it rises against other currencies with stable interest rates. Central banks around the world have been cutting rates for two years, and interest rates are as low now as they've ever been.

The governor of Australia's central bank hinted there would be more interest rate rises on the way. This could be the start of a new trend of rising interest rates around the world. If this is the start of a new trend of rising world interest rates, you can expect big new trends in the currency exchange markets, too. That's because interest rates are the single most important driver of exchange rates in the currency markets.

So how do we make money from a new global trend of rising interest rates?

While other central banks are considering raising rates, the Fed has so far refused to join the party. The dollar is the worst-performing major currency in the world this year as a result.

The recent unemployment report showed that somewhere close to 6 million jobs have vanished from the American economy in the last 18 months. The employment situation hasn't been this bad. With the ongoing unemployment, rate hikes in America are unlikely until next year.

First, this gives us a great opportunity to buy the dollar right now, while it's cheap and no one is anticipating rate hikes from the Fed. By the time Bernanke announces his first rate hike next year, the dollar will have already rallied 10% or more.
Second, a trend of rising interest rates on currencies is great for people looking to buy gold at lower prices. Gold has no interest rate. So when interest rates rise on world currencies, they become more attractive – and they rise – relative to gold. This is especially true with the dollar. It's the world's reserve currency and gold is incredibly sensitive to movements in its interest and exchange rates.

As long as unemployment keeps rising, there's no way the Fed raises interest rates and gold prices will stay high. But next year is a different story. The first hint of rate increases by the Fed will send shockwaves into the gold market.

Regards
Mark

Dear Trader,

What do you think which is the most important mistake in trading that we should avoid among these.

1. Trading with money you can't afford to lose
2. The need to be "certain"
3. Words that will kill you! HOPE---WISH---PRAY
4. Not Acting on your plan
5. Not knowing how to get out of a losing trade
6. Having an ego
7. Falling in love with a sector or script

Regards
Mark

I would say: not acting on our plans... basically that is how I lost money, having a second thought after starting a trade: 90% this is has been a loss for me where 90% it would have been a gain following my first plans.
Why did I not follow my plan: being greedy, wants 2 dollars more, ends up 200 dollars less. and it is not with a demo account that you learn that lesson...

To some extent related to the HOPE.. WISH... PRAY ... words...

1: Never before in history have we seen such explosive growth of the middle class worldwide. This means brand new markets everywhere for everything.
2:History shows returns are much higher for a portfolio formed midway in a recession than one formed midway in a recovery.
3: Despite the market run up since March, takeovers are everywhere which means market pros are seeing good value in select companies.
4: Corporate bond yields are generous especially relative to treasuries
5: Dividends, which are responsible for half the long term return of the market, are very attractive in certain companies

Regards
mark04

You're right.

There is no science, you trade big, you lose or win big