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Daily Currency report for Friday February 16 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Very little change from yesterday as we hold nicely at the new breakout level and give little back to the market. There is still a chance that we may dip back to 1.3050, and even 1.3000, but this is becoming less likely, the longer we hold above 1.3100. Today, buy dips to 1.3050/60, stops below 1.3020. First target is 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday February 19 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: The end of last week was a quiet period for the euro, whilst the other major currencies were somewhat more volatile and unpredictable. We have managed to hold very neatly above 1.3100, with a small "gap" higher over the weekend to 1.3155. We feel that the euro will try to use this good start to the week to rally further and confirm that we have indeed broken out from the recent range into a new bullish period. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: We are edging higher - not giving much up to the downside, but not moving higher with much momentum. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 21 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Again little changed as we move aimlessly around in a 60 point range. The longer we consolidate here the better the chance we will continue higher, but we will have to allow for a "spike" below the range first. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Friday February 23 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: A brief spike to 1.3080 came as expected, and may just be the spark we needed to break the deadlock. The picture remains the same: We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday February 26 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Finally the euro has broken above the pivotal 1.3080 level, but has yet to gather some serious upside momentum. There is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Still very tricky trading after a difficult month.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 27 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Briefly up to 1.3200 a few hours ago, but really no change. It is pleasing that we have managed to hold above 1.3150, which means that another decent upside attack may be initiated today. However, there is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Today we will look to hold longs or buy dips to 1.3150/30, stops below 1.3100.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 28 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Amidst a turbulent day in many markets, the Euro has been relatively quiet. We have moved up to the weekly 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 1.3260 but there is little support from the pound in the rally to push it higher. In addition, downward pressure from the yen crosses has probably helped to keep the euro from punching through. We must now allow for more work in the 1.3100 - 1.3250 corridor, with dips still seen as buying opportunities for a rally to 1.3300. For today, we should get support between 1.3190 and 1.3160. Buy dips to these levels with stops below the reversals.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 01 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9%
Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3
Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M
Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5%
Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8
Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K
Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7%
Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K
Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4%
Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3
Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M
Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M
Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: As we enter the last month of the first quarter, it is likely that we will see more direction in the currency markets. This means that a new trend direction should begin to develop this month - probably renewed dollar weakness. We will continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Right now, its a matter of patience and waiting for the right moment.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: