forex618.net daily currency strategy

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday April 09 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Down to 1.3350, which is first support, the 200 hour SMA and hourly trend line, after topping out at 1.3440. There is no clear evidence of basing here yet and there is potential for a drop back towards the bottom of the range near 1.3300 or 1.3250. Watch for clear G7 reversal patterns on the hourly chart, with a "spike low" or bullish engulfing candle before buying. Caution is required because, although weekly momentum is bullish, we have formed another small "spike high" on the weekly candle which may turn out to be a false break. Try small longs on signs of basing at 1.3350, stops below 1.3320, being prepared to re-buy at 1.3300/1.3250 after a G7 entry signal, stops below the entry candle. Target 1.3440 and then 1.3500.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3250, stop 1.3220, Target 1.3440/1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday April 10 2007

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Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Back up to 1.3430 as expected, and probably going higher this week. Hold longs from 1.3350, with stops now at break even, with targets of 1.3440 and 1.3550 by midweek. Remember to keep stops trailing higher, as trading remains risky as we approach all time highs for the euro and some of the cross rates touch new record highs.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3300, 1.3250

"Set and forget" entry: None

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday April 11 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Very tricky, because despite a new 2 year high for the euro at 1.3456, the price has not managed to follow through with any real momentum, with clear signs of topping on hourly studies (note the G7 signal - www.forex-science.com) It is worth closing long trades at this stage and trying small shorts at 1.3430, with stops above 1.3470, with an initial target of 1.3300, and the possibly 1.3250 before new attempts to stabilise. Because almost everyone is bullish on the euro right now, the chances of a sudden slip lower are very high!

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3350, 1.3380, 1.3300

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.3430, stop 1.3470, target 1.3250

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday April 12 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!)

Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3320

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Close to 1.3480, the high reached in March 2005, and now looking like a test of 1.3500 is on the cards. Momentum remains bullish and we now prefer to buy on dips. These should hold above 1.3400/1.3380, with a target of 1.3500, and then maybe 1.3600. Proceed with caution as we reach near record highs again, and be prepared for sudden, and possibly large, corrections as this market becomes a one-way bet. Today, be prepared to sell into rallies to 1.3500, only on clear signs of topping, with stops above 1.3520, ready to exit and reverse positions to long at 1.3400, stops below 1.3370.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3400

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3400, stop 1.3370, target 1.3500

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

G7 Trading by Forex-Science

Important: All trade ideas in this report should be read with our G7 trading system in mind, and traders should only enter the market when G7 trade entry setups are seen. For more information visit www.forex-science.com


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Daily Currency report for Friday April 13 2007

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Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 11 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/06 NA NA 4307K
Apr 11 14:00 FOMC Minutes Mar 21
Apr 11 14:00 Treasury Budget Mar -$95.0B -$90.0B -$85.3B
Apr 12 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Mar NA NA 0.6%
Apr 12 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Mar NA NA -0.1%
Apr 12 08:30 Initial Claims 04/07 315K 320K 321K
Apr 13 08:30 Trade Balance Feb -$61.0B -$60.5B -$59.1B
Apr 13 08:30 PPI Mar 0.8% 0.7% 1.3%
Apr 13 08:30 Core PPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Apr 13 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Apr 87.0 87.5 88.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9820

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, Sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today's trade suggestion: We have a marginal new high at 1.9838, just above the key 1.9800 level and around about the top of last week's "spike high" This is a key moment for the pound (and it's Friday the 13th!) If we move above here and close above 1.9800 this week, we have a real chance at 2.0000. However, a setback here could knock the pound down by a few cents. Aggressive traders should SELL 1.9830/40, stops above 1.9860, with a target of 1.9700 and then 1.9600. Otherwise, wait for a move lower to buy into dips near the lower 200 Bollinger on signs of basing next week.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.9820

"Set and forget" entry: SELL 1.9830, stop 1.9860, target 1.9600.

Counter-trend opportunities: None

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday April 16 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!)

Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.9% 0.7% -0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Apr 10.0 10.0 1.9
Apr 16 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Feb $80.0B $97.4B
Apr 16 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 CPI Mar 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Apr 17 08:30 Core CPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 1495K 1500K 1525K
Apr 17 08:30 Building Permits Mar 1520K 1515K 1532K
Apr 17 09:15 Industrial Production Mar 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
Apr 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar 82.0% 81.9% 82.0%
Apr 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/13 NA NA 678K
Apr 19 08:30 Initial Claims 04/14 325K NA 342K
Apr 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
Apr 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr 2.0 3.0 0.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: If anyone was in doubt about dollar weakness, they will have had to adjust their views as the euro has moved just shy of 1.3600, and very near the all time high of 1.3667. Our model remains bullish whilst we hold above 1.3340 and we continue to look to buy on dips. We will allow for some short term correction from around the 1.3600/50 levels, with support now at 1.3450/20. Wait for a clear G7 entry signal here before buying euros for another attempt at breaking above 1.3600 and then above 1.3667 towards 1.3800. As always, when approaching such extremely high levels, be aware that sudden large corrections can and do occur, and trade with caution.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3450

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3450, stop 1.3410, target 1.3600

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.3660, stop 1.3700, target 1.3560

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

www.forex-science.com

GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, Buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today's trade suggestion: The highest level the pound has reached in 22 years is 2.0100, and we are only a few pips short of that this morning. Remember that this is a very large and very key number and that as we get close to it there are likely to be market jitters and possibly even panic, causing large swings in both directions. It is likely that the market will top out here, or just above here (between 2.0100 and 2.0200), before making a (possibly dramatic) corrective move towards 1.9850. This will probably be accompanied by a clear reversal signal, such as a large "spike high" or a dominant bearish engulfing candle. This will be an excellent opportunity to take advantage of the reverse swing and gain 200-300 pips quite rapidly.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.9850

"Set and forget" entry: None

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 2.0140, stop 2.0240, target 1.9850 (aggressive traders can try at 2.0100, stop 1.20150)

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday April 19 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) www.forex-science.com

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.9% 0.7% -0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Apr 10.0 10.0 1.9
Apr 16 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Feb $80.0B $97.4B
Apr 16 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 CPI Mar 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Apr 17 08:30 Core CPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 1495K 1500K 1525K
Apr 17 08:30 Building Permits Mar 1520K 1515K 1532K
Apr 17 09:15 Industrial Production Mar 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
Apr 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar 82.0% 81.9% 82.0%
Apr 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/13 NA NA 678K
Apr 19 08:30 Initial Claims 04/14 325K NA 342K
Apr 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
Apr 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr 2.0 3.0 0.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We are stalling at 1.3620, just below the all time high and it is understandable that there might be some hesitation at these levels. The euro is not particularly overbought, but we continue to warn that dramatic corrections are quite possible from here, particularly as many currencies are at the extreme top of their all time ranges. First support comes in at 1.3530, and there are less well defined areas of support all the way down from 1.3480 to 1.3420. We suggest trying small longs on signs of basing at 1.3480, with tight stops, being ready to re-try lower down (weekly support at 1.3340) Don't rush into a trade for the rest of this week, which could well be spent in corrective mode. Alternatively, watch for a top to form somewhere above 1.3720 for a counter-trend opportunity.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3420, 1.3480

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3480, stop 1.3450, target 1.3600

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.3720, stop 1.3760, target 1.3560

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Friday April 20 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) www.forex-science.com

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales Mar 0.5% 0.4% 0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Mar 0.9% 0.7% -0.1%
Apr 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Apr 10.0 10.0 1.9
Apr 16 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Feb $80.0B $97.4B
Apr 16 10:00 Business Inventories Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 CPI Mar 0.7% 0.6% 0.4%
Apr 17 08:30 Core CPI Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Apr 17 08:30 Housing Starts Mar 1495K 1500K 1525K
Apr 17 08:30 Building Permits Mar 1520K 1515K 1532K
Apr 17 09:15 Industrial Production Mar 0.2% 0.1% 1.0%
Apr 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Mar 82.0% 81.9% 82.0%
Apr 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/13 NA NA 678K
Apr 19 08:30 Initial Claims 04/14 325K NA 342K
Apr 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.2% 0.1% -0.5%
Apr 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Apr 2.0 3.0 0.2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging higher but only by 10 pips, so no change to our strategy - We are stalling at 1.3630, just below the all time high and it is understandable that there might be some hesitation at these levels. The euro is not particularly overbought, but we continue to warn that dramatic corrections are quite possible from here, particularly as many currencies are at the extreme top of their all time ranges. First support comes in at 1.3520/30, and there are less well defined areas of support all the way down from 1.3480 to 1.3400. We suggest trying small longs on signs of basing at 1.3520, with tight stops, being ready to re-try lower down (1.3400 then weekly support at 1.3340) Don't rush into a trade for the rest of this week, which could well be spent in corrective mode. Alternatively, watch for a top to form somewhere above 1.3720 for a counter-trend opportunity.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3530, 1.3400

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3450, stop 1.3420, target 1.3600

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.3720, stop 1.3760, target 1.3560

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday April 24 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) www.forex-science.com

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Apr 24 10:00 Consumer Confidence Apr 105.0 105.0 107.2
Apr 24 10:00 Existing Home Sales Mar 6.40M 6.50M 6.69M
Apr 25 08:30 Durable Orders Mar 2.8% 2.5% 1.7%
Apr 25 10:00 New Home Sales Mar 900K 885K 848K
Apr 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 04/20 NA NA -994K
Apr 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Apr 26 08:30 Initial Claims 04/21 325K NA 339K
Apr 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Mar 31 31 31
Apr 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q1 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Apr 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q1 3.0% 3.0% 1.7%
Apr 27 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q1 0.9% 0.9% 0.8%
Apr 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Apr 85.3 85.3 85.3

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change as we hang around the same levels going into the second week in a row. Weekly support has moved up to 1.3520 and the euro is holding quite steadily at current levels without much retracement. This means we may be able to push to a new all-time high this week, with a break above 1.3660 setting off a rally to 1.3700 and then 1.3800. Be prepared to buy dips to 1.3520, and probably just lower than that at 1.3480. Below here and we shall have to allow for a much more significant dip towards 1.3450 and maybe 1.3400, before new attempts to base.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3520, 1.3490

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3500, stop 1.3460, target 1.3700

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: