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Daily Currency report for Friday March 2 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Feb 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jan -3.0% -2.0% 2.9% Feb 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Feb 109.5 109.0 110.3 Feb 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan 6.30M 6.24M 6.22M Feb 28 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q4 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% Feb 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q4 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Feb 28 09:45 Chicago PMI Feb 50.0 50.0 48.8 Feb 28 10:00 New Home Sales Jan 1085K 1090K 1120K Feb 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/23 NA NA 3694K Mar 01 08:30 Personal Income Jan 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% Mar 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jan 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% Mar 01 08:30 Initial Claims 02/24 325K NA 332K Mar 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jan -0.2% -0.4% -0.4% Mar 01 10:00 ISM Index Feb 50.5 50.0 49.3 Mar 01 17:00 Auto Sales Feb 5.1M 5.1M 5.2M Mar 01 17:00 Truck Sales Feb 7.2M 7.3M 7.5M Mar 02 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Feb 93.3 94.0 93.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090 Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today: The euro dipped slightly to 1.3150 as the yen crosses slipped further yesterday. We have managed to hold here quite well, but the danger of a further slip continues to threaten. We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200, with the first chance to try at 1.3150. Buy near 1.3170, stops below 1.3150, being prepared to re-try lower down. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Monday March 5 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 05 10:00 ISM Services Feb 57.0 57.5 59.0 Mar 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% Mar 06 10:00 Factory Orders Jan -5.0% -4.0% 2.4% Mar 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/02 NA NA 1421K Mar 07 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $10.0B $7.0B $6.0B Mar 08 08:30 Initial Claims 03/03 330K 335K 338K Mar 09 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 100K 100K 111K Mar 09 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% Mar 09 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 09 08:30 Average Workweek Feb 33.8 33.8 33.8 Mar 09 08:30 Trade Balance Jan -$59.5B -$60.0B -$61.2B Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.1% -0.1% -0.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090 Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3080 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today: Despite the carnage taking place in other markets (Yen crosses!), the euro has remained relatively stable, holding well above the 1.3100 level and keeping up a bullish tone. This means that our analysis has not changed: We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 6 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 05 10:00 ISM Services Feb 57.0 57.5 59.0 Mar 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q4 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% Mar 06 10:00 Factory Orders Jan -5.0% -4.0% 2.4% Mar 07 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/02 NA NA 1421K Mar 07 14:00 Fed's Beige Book Mar 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jan $10.0B $7.0B $6.0B Mar 08 08:30 Initial Claims 03/03 330K 335K 338K Mar 09 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Feb 100K 100K 111K Mar 09 08:30 Unemployment Rate Feb 4.7% 4.6% 4.6% Mar 09 08:30 Hourly Earnings Feb 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 09 08:30 Average Workweek Feb 33.8 33.8 33.8 Mar 09 08:30 Trade Balance Jan -$59.5B -$60.0B -$61.2B Mar 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jan 0.1% -0.1% -0.5% -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GBP/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bearish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9680 Resistance levels: 1.9400, 1.9500 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky. Today: Pushed down relentlessly by the falling GBP/JPY cross rate, the pound touched below 1.9200 for the first time since November 2006. This move will have cleared out many over-optimistic long hands and frightened many onto the sidelines, particularly with the turmoil in other markets. That makes it the perfect opportunity for a new base to form at the important 1.9200 trend reversal level and medium term Fibonacci confluence. Buy dips/hold longs from 1.9230, first target 1.9400, and then 1.9500, where we shall watch for signs of topping and opportunities to sell again. Stops at 1.9170. GBP/USD Hourly chart: GBP/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Monday March 12 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3% Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0% Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4 Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6 Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2% Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bearish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215 Resistance levels: 1.3160, 1.3200 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Very little change as we hover between 1.3100 and 1.3200 since the middle of last month. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 13 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3% Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0% Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4 Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6 Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2% Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bearish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215 Resistance levels: 1.3200 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Back up to 1.3200, but not out of danger yet. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 14 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit www.forex618.net for more information Try us! 50% discount voucher! OR Pay as You Go - read more... This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3% Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0% Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4 Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6 Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2% Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070 Support levels: 1.3150, 1.3100, 1.3070 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today: We have managed to retrace 78.6% of the euro's previous decline, at 1.3220, and the price is stalling here. As we are not getting any assistance from the pound (although the yen has done particularly well) we may need to wait another day or two before the euro can really get some upward momentum. Until then the strategy remains the same: We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 15 2007
This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Feb -$123.0B -$118.0B -$119.2B Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% Mar 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Feb 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Mar 13 10:00 Business Inventories Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Mar 14 08:30 Current Account Q4 -$204.0B -$203.0B -$225.6B Mar 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Feb NA NA 0.3% Mar 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Feb NA NA 0.0% Mar 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/09 NA NA -4848K Mar 15 08:30 PPI Feb 0.4% 0.4% -0.6% Mar 15 08:30 Core PPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Mar 15 08:30 Initial Claims 03/10 330K NA 328K Mar 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Mar 15.0 17.0 24.4 Mar 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jan $15.6B Mar 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Mar 5.0 4.0 0.6 Mar 16 08:30 CPI Feb 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% Mar 16 08:30 Core CPI Feb 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Mar 16 09:15 Industrial Production Feb 0.3% 0.3% -0.5% Mar 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Feb 81.3% 81.3% 81.2% Mar 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Mar 90.0 90.5 91.3 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070 Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3160, 1.3100 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today: Pushing up towards the recent high at 1.3260 and stalling slightly there for now. We expect that the euro will eventually break above here and head towards 1.3500, but we will allow for some back-filling today, and perhaps the rest of this week. Dips should try to hold above 1.3150, so all declines to that sort of area are good opportunities to re-buy euros for another strong rally. Watch for dips and signs of reversal between 1.3180 and 1.3100 today before buying. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Monday March 19 2007
Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1% Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today's trade suggestion: We pushed up slightly higher on Friday, but without a great deal of conviction. This means that the picture hasn't really changed, and we should still allow for a period of consolidation under 1.3370. Dips should try to hold above 1.3240/50, but may extend to 1.3200/1.3180. Both of these areas are seen as good opportunities to buy euros for another attempt at breaking above 1.3370. Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200 "Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3200, stop 1.3165, target 1.3350 Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3370. Use tight trailing stop loss. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 21 2007
Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1% Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today's trade suggestion: 5 days holding in an 80 pip range means that the euro is overdue for a significant move. It is easy to pick a direction and gamble on being right, but it is probably a 50/50 call right now. We will either rush higher towards 1.3500 or drop back to better support around 1.3200. Wait for a G7 set up near 1.3240 or even lower at 1.3180 before buying, or try small counter-trend trades higher up on signs of topping against 1.3500/20 . Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3180 "Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3250, stop 1.3230, target 1.3370. Re-buy 1.3190, stop 1.3160, target 1.3370 Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3500. Use tight trailing stop loss. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 22 2007
Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) Please visit www.forex-science.com for more information This Week's Economic Calendar -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From Mar 20 08:30 Housing Starts Feb 1475K 1440K 1408K Mar 20 08:30 Building Permits Feb 1530K 1560K 1571K Mar 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 03/16 NA NA 1180K Mar 21 14:15 FOMC policy statement Mar 22 08:30 Initial Claims 03/17 320K 325K 318K Mar 22 10:00 Leading Indicators Feb -0.6% -0.3% 0.1% Mar 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Feb 6.30M 6.35M 6.46M -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EUR/USD Weekly Trend direction: Bullish Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070 Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal. Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100. Today's trade suggestion: Up to 1.3400 and the highest price since early 2005, with lots of fanfare and chatter. At the same time, the Aussie dollar reached above 0.8000 and the highest level in 10 years against the dollar. This is all very exciting, but remember that these are historically extreme levels and they bring their own danger with them - uncertainty, large swings and perhaps even dramatic collapses. Nevertheless, the euro remains bullish and despite the possibility of a strong retracement from 1.3400, dips are opportunities to buy cautiously. Today, try very small (counter-trend) shorts around 1.3400, stops above 1.3425, or wait for dips to 1.3280/50 to buy - stops below 1.3230. Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3280 "Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3280, stop 1.3230, target 1.3400. Counter-trend opportunities: Maybe try tiny shorts at 1.3400, stop 1.3430, target 1.3300. EUR/USD Hourly chart: EUR/USD Weekly chart: |
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