forex618.net daily currency strategy

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Friday July 20 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 16 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 15.0 17.0 25.8
Jul 17 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
Jul 17 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jul 17 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May $70.0B $84.1B
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 81.5% 81.5% 81.3%
Jul 18 08:30 CPI Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jul 18 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1460K 1450K 1474K
Jul 18 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1500K 1490K 1520K
Jul 18 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/13 NA NA -1462K
Jul 19 08:30 Initial Claims 07/14 315K NA 308K
Jul 19 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Jul 19 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 13.0 18.0
Jul 19 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 28

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3590

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change after two full weeks of going nowhere. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should hold well above first support at 1.3720 (1.3660 max). And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3680, 1.3720

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday July 23 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3740

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging higher but without any impetus and becoming dangerously overbought at levels never seen before for the single currency. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should try to hold above first support at 1.3750 And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. Below 1.3740 means a weekly reversal and the risk of a significant collapse as weak longs who bought too high up begin to bail out.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 25 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3740

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A fractionally new high yesterday, but little change to the picture. Perhaps the news today will tip this one way or the other: Edging higher but without any impetus and becoming dangerously overbought at levels never seen before for the single currency. The euro appears to be holding up well above 1.3760, but bullish momentum has faded and the danger of a reversal between 1.3850 and the BIG number at 1.4000 is increasing. For today, the same old story - dips should try to hold above first support at 1.3750 And then onwards and upwards to 1.3900 and 1.4000. Below 1.3740 means a weekly reversal and the risk of a significant collapse as weak longs who bought too high up begin to bail out.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 1.4000, stop 1.4040, target 1.3800

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday July 26 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 5.85M 5.90M 5.99M
Jul 25 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/20 NA NA -449K
Jul 25 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 26 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 2.5% 2.0% -2.4%
Jul 26 08:30 Initial Claims 07/21 310K 310K 301K
Jul 26 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 27 27 27
Jul 26 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 890K 900K 915K
Jul 27 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.5% 3.2% 0.7%
Jul 27 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.6% 3.4% 4.2%
Jul 27 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 92.4 91.5 92.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: A sudden plunge below the short term trend line was almost inevitable, after days of edging higher without momentum. Now we are testing the longer term trend line (see chart), but we expect that this will eventually give way as well, as the euro corrects towards first key support at 1.3680/60.(Thick red line) As weekly momentum is now bearish, we look to sell into rallies, with first resistance at 1.3780. It is possible to also take counter-trend long positions on clear signs of basing around the above-mentioned key support levels.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3780

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy dips to 1.3660/80 only on clear signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday July 30 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Plunging towards support at 1.3630 (38.2% of the recent rally), the euro is very oversold and due a bounce. If a medium/long term top is in place at 1.3860 (the jury is still out on that idea) then we still expect a strong bounce to recover 61.8% - 78.6% of last week's fall. There is a good chance for a counter-trend trade at 1.3630, with long positions aimed at 1.3750, and even 1.3800 before new attempts at topping. Watch for rallies to that area this week, looking to sell into reversal signals if/when we get there.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3750

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3630, target 1.3700/3750.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 1 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change as the euro dithers above the 1.3600 level, but below resistance at 1.3720. Weekly momentum is bearish, which means we still look to sell into rallies, with 1.3720 now seen as an important intermediate top. (above here and 1.3800 should stop any rallies) Wave analysis suggests we still have another leg lower to go, which might take the euro down to 1.3550/70 (200 SMA, previous S/R and 50% Fib), where counter-trend longs might be a possibility. watch to sell at 1.3720, or to buy near 1.3550, only on clear signs of reversal. Below 1.3550 (unlikely on first attempt) means another drop to 1.3400/20. Watch here for a bounce.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3720, 1.3800

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3550

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday August 2 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Jul 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
Jul 31 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Jun 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Jul 31 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
Jul 31 09:45 Chicago PMI Jul 59.5 59.0 60.2
Jul 31 10:00 Construction Spending Jun -0.1% 0.3% 0.9%
Jul 31 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 109.0 105.0 103.9
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 56.5 55.5 56.0
Aug 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun -3.5%
Aug 01 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/27 NA NA -1103K
Aug 01 17:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.4M 5.5M 5.2M
Aug 01 17:00 Truck Sales Jul 6.9M 7.0M 6.5M
Aug 02 08:30 Initial Claims 07/28 315K NA 301K
Aug 02 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.5% 1.3% -0.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 150K 135K 132K
Aug 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.5% 4.5%
Aug 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 03 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.8 33.9 33.9
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul NA 59.5 60.7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change as the euro dithers above the 1.3600 level, but below resistance at 1.3720. Weekly momentum is bearish, which means we still look to sell into rallies, with 1.3720 now seen as an important intermediate top. (above here and 1.3800 should stop any rallies) Wave analysis suggests we still have another leg lower to go, which might take the euro down to 1.3550/70 (200 SMA, previous S/R and 50% Fib), where counter-trend longs might be a possibility. watch to sell at 1.3720, or to buy near 1.3550, only on clear signs of reversal. Below 1.3550 (unlikely on first attempt) means another drop to 1.3400/20. Watch here for a bounce. Patience is required this week, but it will pay off!

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3720, 1.3800

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy at 1.3550

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday August 6 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up to almost the all time high again at 1.3840, and a little higher than we had allowed for (1.3800) With a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. This is not an uncommon pattern, but caution is required as a new rally is certainly not out of the question. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 7 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change as we consolidate below 1.3840. There are signs across the board that a significant dollar rally is possible this week, so our analysis and strategy remains unchanged: With a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. This is not an uncommon pattern, but caution is required as a new rally is certainly not out of the question. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday August 9 2007

Get our new G7 Forex system for yourself (FREE E-book!) G7 Forex System by Forex-Science. Day trading system for the Forex market.

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops. Please visit Forex trading signals and instant alerts on Forex major currencies for more information.

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 2.2% 2.0% 1.0%
Aug 07 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $3.5B $7.0B $12.9B
Aug 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
Aug 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/03 NA NA -6497K
Aug 09 08:30 Initial Claims 08/04 310K NA 307K
Aug 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.1%
Aug 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.2%
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$35.0B -$32.5B -$33.2B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3860

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3800, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We are back above 1.3800, which was slightly unexpected and has clouded the technical picture just a little bit. Still, out model remains bearish, and with a bit of luck, we will hold below 1.3850, but we must now allow for another spike through here just to rattle the uncertain. For today, whilst below 1.3850, the chance of another sudden drop is quite good and we look to sell into rallies/hold shorts from 1.3850 region, with a first target of 1.3720, and then 1.3620.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3850, 1.3900

Counter-trend opportunities: Sell 1.3900/1.3920, stops above 1.3950

EUR/USD Hourly chart: