T Squared Trading LLC Currency Trading/Mercado de Divisas

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 15th, 2006

G-7 Meeting This Weekend & Harry Potter Almost Couldn’t Fly

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

The G-7 Meeting this weekend in Singapore is making a lot of traders a bit nervous, as they are unsure of what currencies will be affected and in which direction. The major concern is over the Yen. Will leaders be making bullish comments on the Japanese economy and the rate of inflation later this year? It’s a tough call, but odds are they will do their best to soften the terrible economic data as of late

Those Harry Potter fans looking anxiously forward to the new book nearly had a heart attack when they heard that author, J.K. Rowling was almost unable to bring the “unsaved” manuscript of her new novel onto a London bound flight out of New York. Thankfully the airport official eventually relented and let her board the plane with the book. 2 questions: Why was top secret info like that being carried around, and why in the world is Rowling flying commercial? Have a great weekend everyone!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
More sideways trading was apparent in this pair. We nailed the .2670 support call last night, but are a bit off on the resistance as this Euro topped out at .2760 in a brief spurt this afternoon. This pair should be moved by the US CPI Inflation data tomorrow morning. Let’s keep the .2760 support.

Usd/Jpy
The fact that the G7 meeting is occurring in Singapore over the weekend, is making many Yen shorts a bit skittish. The reason for this is they are expecting the Japanese Economy to be a focal point during the meeting, and traders are expecting positive things to be stated. Again this would contradict all the poor Japanese data of late, but as always with this currency, expect the unexpected. 117.50-118 remains the range.

Usd/Chf
This pair reacted positive towards the Franc following the ¼ point rate hike by the SNB this morning, but similar to most of the bogus moves of late, it quickly gave back all gains a few hours later. On the surface this is very bullish for the Dollar. Please drop us a line for further clarification. Support is “iffy” now in the .2450 area, but resistance is still around .2540

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/14, 6:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
Neutral
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
Neutral

Some of our shorter term Euro strategies were stopped out today in the choppy market environment. Our strategies are sitting on the sidelines for the most part, as participation is at a lowly 30%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 18th, 2006

Dollar Strength Is A Welcome Development & Pope Benedict’s Mistake

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend, and is well rested after a pretty exciting trading day on Friday. For the first time in a while, some of the major currency pairs were able to break out of a seemingly everlasting period of consolidation. Traders believe the strength was due to the fact that many believe that the slowdown in the economy, namely the housing sector, won’t be as harsh as originally thought.

After Pope Benedict XVI finished reciting comments last Tuesday basically saying that the Prophet Muhammad, the founder of Islam, was “evil and inhuman,” he probably wanted to fire his speech writers. The backlash from Muslims prompted the Pope to retract his statements saying that he was merely reciting passages from a Medieval text and those words did not represent his thoughts or beliefs. Have a great week!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The Euro has approached levels not seen since late July as we’re currently seeing a low print of .2630. As usual when a pair is in somewhat of a freefall similar to what the Eur/Usd is right now, we’re very hesitant to put out a support, as it usually is like catching falling knives. We like to see some sort of consolidation occur before any suggestions. The Zew report later this week could further hurt the Euro if a weaker than expected number is reported. Our strategies are currently exhibiting a net Euro short bias.

Usd/Jpy
The G7 meeting over the weekend was essentially a non event for the Japanese Yen as basically the only mention was the fact that Japan has eliminated the zero-interest rate policy and the “recovery is now broad based.” Traders most likely look for the economic data to confirm or refute this before sticking their necks out on any Yen longs, as the trend is still Dollar bullish. The 117.50-118 range remains, as Dollar longs are getting frustrated by the inability to crack through 118 for any extended period of time.

Usd/Chf
On Thursday we noted the movement after the SNB decision on interest rates was most likely Dollar bullish, and indeed it turned out that way. Reviewing our notes we accidentally noted that .2450 was the resistance, obviously we misspoke, and meant to say support. Some of our readers emailed us about this for clarification, so we apologize. The reason the Franc was so weak on Friday was that comments made by the Swiss National Bank lend to the notion that a 50 basis point increase later this year is not quite a sure thing as once expected. Let’s use Friday’s high of .2620 as the new resistance, and .2550 as support.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/17, 6:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

The Dollar strength on Friday was enough to trigger some positions in a majority of our Eur/Usd based strategies. As shown above, our strategies are currently exhibiting a rather decidedly net Dollar long bias, so it will be interesting to see if the Dollar rally continues. Participation has increased quite a bit, as about 70% of our strategies are holding a long or short position.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 20th, 2006

Missing You & Too Bad We Don’t Have Any Thai Baht Strategies

Good Tuesday Evening, Thursday Morning,

There was a plethora of crummy economic data from the three biggies: US, JPY, & EUR. Apparently the least poor of the three was the US housing data. In a sign of the times, there is little talk of the Fed Rate Decision tomorrow. I have a better chance of growing a second head, than the Fed does of raising rates. Amazingly enough, there are whispers of a possible rate CUT in the winter…that would be nice!

The coup attempt to overthrow the government in Thailand has caused ripples in the value of the Thai Baht (their currency.) The US Dollar has gained considerably against the Baht, as a flight to safety is taking place.

Finally, we wanted to drop a quick note that we missed not expressing our thoughts last night to everyone, as it was the first time in a while we did not write a commentary. Unfortunately, as we mentioned in our emails, we just don’t currently have the time to do a nightly commentary and will be releasing it Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday evenings to our subscribers. Hopefully this will change in the near future as we “beef” up our customer service staff.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
The weak Euro-Zone Zew data, which measures different opinions on the economy by analysts and institutions, brought this pair back down in the .2600’s. This was somewhat disappointing to Euro bulls as this pair reversed nicely to reach high’s of .2730. If this pair consolidates in the .2640-.2680, this could be a VERY weak sign for the Euro. Please contact us for further clarification. Our Euro strategies are showing a slight Dollar long bias

Usd/Jpy
After bottoming out at 117, this pair is back in the range we noted on Sunday, 117.50-118. The movement hasn’t done much to change our Yen strategies overall bias on Dollar long. Weak consumer demand data was the cause of the rebound back to the safe 50 point haven. The chart still appears to be bearish towards the yen, but it better stop consolidating below 118 to continue this sentiment.

Usd/Chf
Our support of .2550 from Sunday evening was off, as this pair has reached lows of .2485. There has been no news as of late to support or damage the Franc. The up and down movement has been caused by it’s counter-currency, the Dollar. After changing their mind quite a few times as of late, our Swiss strategies are showing a net Dollar short bias, for what it’s worth. Let’s use .2460-.2560 as the current range.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/19, 8:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Long Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

The past two sessions haven’t been too kind to our strategies, as the choppiness has caused a few stop outs in both our Euro and Swiss strategies. The Franc’s movement has been the most nonsensical of them all. The schitzophrenic movement of the market apparently has prompted quite a few of our strategies to stay on the sideline to watch as participation is back down around 30%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 22nd, 2006

Weak Dollar Approaching Familiar Levels & Chavez Probably Won’t Be Buying Bush A Birthday Present

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

The Dollar has taken a bit of a pounding the past 2 days. Today’s decline was due to poor Leading Indicator data and the Philly Fed Report. The Philly Fed Manufacturing report was negative for the first time since 2003. In spite of the current weakness of the Buck, we don’t think it’s time to load up on Dollar short positions…yet. As we describe in our Indicator section below, an overall consolidation needs to take place, as this current move is most likely unsustainable in the near-term.

In the past 48 hours Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has referred to US President Bush as “the devil, and alcoholic, a sick man, and he walks like John Wayne.” He also said in so many words that if the US messed with either Venezuela or Iran, oil prices could rise to over $200/barrel. Can’t we all just get along!!! Have a nice weekend everyone and look for our weekly commentary on Sunday evening.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Luckily for the Euro bulls, the .2640-.2660 consolidation scenario we discussed in the previous commentary didn’t come to fruition. The current print of this pair is a shade below .2800. To be frank, our strategies are believing in the current strength of the Euro, but I will continue to be skeptical until this pair bases up above .2850 for a significant amount of time. This is needed to build up steam to make a run for .3000 again, much like a coiled spring. We’ve used .2800 as the resistance before, and we’re going to use it again.

Usd/Jpy
On Tuesday evening we warned that this pair better stop consolidating below the 117.50 level, if the Dollar had hopes of continuing the upward movement. Well, this pair not only consolidated, but came out of the consolidation pretty violently, before bottoming out around 116.20. While this chart isn’t looking extremely Yen bullish, a break below 116 would be. Given the sharp 45 degree angle of the move, a consolidation around the current level might be in order. Keep 116.80 as near term resistance.

Usd/Chf
.2460 provided about as much support as a training bra on Dolly Parton. Our support levels the past few days haven’t been as accurate as they’ve been in weeks past. Swiss economic data has not been the driver of the Franc’s increase, but rather the poor US economic data. We’re going to go out on a limb and call the .2390-.2400 the next area of major support. A break below this level would send Franc bulls dancing in the streets of Geneva.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/21, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

The Dollar weakness has caused a net Dollar short bias with the lone exception being our stubborn Yen strategies, which are still long the Dollar. Participation is around 50% as we enter the weekend with a lack of any significant economic data.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 25th, 2006

Economic Data For Week Ahead To Shape Dollar & Is Bin Laden Dead?

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

Unconfirmed reports out of France say that Al Qaeda mastermind Osama Bin Laden died of typhoid in Pakistan in late August. Of course this news was reported as a result of a news leak from a “normally reliable source,” so let’s approach this news with a grain of salt. I always find it amazing that “reliable sources” are usually quite the opposite.

The week ahead brings the following key economic data for the US: Monday: Existing Home Sales, Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Wednesday: New Home Sales. Traders believe this data will prove to be positive for the Buck, and should bring a halt to the recent Dollar slide. Have a great week everyone, and please contact us with any questions.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
As noted on Thursday evening, our strategies are exhibiting a net Euro long bias, but we are still skeptical until this pair bases above the .2800 level for any significant amount of time. The Euro touched .2820 briefly during Friday’s trading. The German CPI report later this week will be worth taking note of. Please contact us tomorrow for any changes in our Euro biases. .2750-.2820 is the current range.

Usd/Jpy
This pair did indeed consolidate around the 116 area as we suggested it might on Thursday. The Dollar actually strengthened a bit against the Yen and is currently settled around 116.50. Look for Japanese economic data this week including inflation, retail sales, and the labor market. Taking into account that recent Japanese data has been weak, any positive reports should have an enhanced effect on the recent Yen strength. 116-116.50 is the near-term range.

Usd/Chf
Thank heavens our Swiss Franc strategies didn’t follow our .2400 support level call on Friday, as they have a rather nice unrealized profit going on their Dollar short positions. It was surprising to see how quickly the support level was breached. Market action during the first part of this week will be the tell as to whether this Swiss strength is sustainable. Dare we call .2300 as support? Refer to our “falling knives comments,” from previous commentaries.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/24, 7:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Short Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Short Bias

Our biases have remained the same since Thursday evening. There was not much in terms of executions during Friday’s trading day. Our strategies enter the week with a slight Dollar short bias. Participation is still around 50%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 27th, 2006

Will The Dollar Strength Be Short Lived, Osama Not Dead

Good Tuesday Evening, Wednesday Morning,

The Dollar gained on most other currencies today as the Consumer Confidence data was stronger than expected. Whether the momentum can continue into tomorrow’s session is up for debate. Tomorrow brings us Durable Goods and New Home Sales data. The Durable Goods data is supposed to be positive but the housing data is expected to be weak. Unfortunately this disparity in data might lead to consolidation, leaving volatility to a minimum; a bummer for “day-traders.”

Apparently the reliable source that leaked the news Osama Bin Laden was dead, wasn’t so reliable after all. He wasn’t spotted at a Wendy’s in Kansas, but he also hasn’t been found dead. Therefore, it’s believed he’s still alive and well.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Our skepticism in reference to the Euro strength on Sunday evening, was proven correct, as this pair has weakened significantly since then, reaching lows of around .2660. The reason for the weakness today was due to a low business expectations index. Tomorrow’s EuroZone M3 data will most likely have an effect if negative. Currently, the chart looks Dollar bullish, but there is a good level of support in the .2650 region.

Usd/Jpy
What a difference a day makes, as the Yen was quite strong yesterday, but was quite the opposite today across the board. Against the Dollar, this pair broke out of the 116-116.50 consolidation. The move was pretty dramatic before topping out at 117.20. Our Yen strategies have been net Dollar long, even during last weeks Yen strength, so I guess it comes as no surprise to their computer chip brains. No economic news is due tomorrow, so let’s see if this pair bases above 117 before making a decision. Give it room to breathe, and use 116.75 as support.

Usd/Chf
We broke out of week long rut of missing the support levels in this pair, as we nailed the .2300 level yesterday. It seems like our Swiss based strategies were on the same page as us, booking a nice short profit, then quickly reversing, currently sitting on a nice long profit. The chart is not very convincing on the Dollar long side, so let’s keep an eye on the Leading Indicator Data tomorrow morning. Use .2375 to .2450 as a near term range.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/26, 7:00 PM ET:

We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

The past 2 trading days have brought nice profits to our Swiss strategies, as they were able to pinpoint the reversal rather nicely. Our Yen strategies have maintained there Dollar long bias, while our Euro strategies have turned neutral. Participation has dropped again to around 40%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for September 29th, 2006

Franc & Yen Trending Nicely & I’m Glad I Don’t Like Candy Too Much

Good Thursday Evening, Friday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great week, and are looking forward to a nice weekend. In the past two days, we’ve seen a continuation of some nice moves in the Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy. Please see our comments below on the possible outlooks for both. Tomorrow’s US Personal Spending data is supposed to be strong but the Chicago PMI is due to be weak. It will be interesting to see which piece of data holds the most weight, in what could be an eventful day in the currency market.

Results from a study out of Norway that examined the affects of sugar on 15-16 year olds, showed that soft drinks and other sugar-filled foods may cause mental problems. I’m not really sure if Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Red Bull, etc. are believing in this study! Have a great weekend everyone!!!

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
Those of you who strictly trade the Euro most likely have “Pound Envy,” after watching the sharp moves in that currency the past 24 hours. Meanwhile the Euro has continued to consolidate against the Dollar, perhaps building momentum for another shot at .3000 or a decided move lower towards .2500. Looking at a weekly chart, one would tend to side with the .2500 scenario for now. German retail sales dominate EuroZone news for tomorrow morning.

Usd/Jpy
Our 116.75 support level was not even tested after our previous report. Instead this pair has had a nice steady increase similar to the Franc in which we detail below. This pair is approaching the steel ceiling as of late…118. I really think this pair has a chance of breaking through the 118 level with a quite violent move. The high from April was around 118.60…will it reach that high is another question. Hopefully for Dollar bulls it stays at this level for a few days….that would be strength!!! Look for Japanese CPI later this evening.

Usd/Chf
On Tuesday evening we noted the chart wasn’t very convincing on a Dollar long side, but as usual our strategies are looking much wiser than us, and have held on to Swiss short position for most of this week. I’m actually starting to like the nice gradual ascent this pair has had. When a chart exhibits a 45 degree angle of ascent or descent it’s usually a good sign for a lasting move. With that said, this market has not been very “trendy,” as of late, so let’s keep an eye on the .2500 as a possible top to this move.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 9/28, 7:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

Our biases have stayed the exact same since our last report, nearly 48 hours ago. If you look at the price movements of the 3 majors we cover there was really no reason for the strategies to change bias; the Dollar increased in price against the Franc and Yen, and basically treaded water against the Euro. Participation is still rather mild around 60%.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com

[lexus]

OK

[T Squared Trading]

Hi Lexus,

Ok x 2

T2

[T Squared Trading]

Daily Commentary for October 2nd, 2006

ISM and Non-Farm Payrolls This Week

Good Sunday Evening, Monday Morning,

We hope everyone had a great weekend. October is finally here which marks the beginning of Major League Baseball playoffs, and crisp Autumn weather. It also appears to be marking the potential for some range breakouts in a few currency pairs. Of course the granddaddy of all the economic data is due on Friday: The US Non-Farm Payrolls. We will analyze this number later in the week. Keep an eye out on US ISM data tomorrow morning, as this number occasionally provides some fireworks to the currency market. Please have a great week and contact us with any and questions you may have.

Technical Indicators

Eur/Usd
German Retail Sales on Friday were actually better than expected, but this was not nearly enough to cause the Euro to gain any strength in this pair. This week EuroZone manufacturing data, and PMI reports dominate on the data front, but more than likely we will see this pair moved around by the US economic data noted above. .2640 is a key support level, as the Euro continues to look bearish against the Buck.

Usd/Jpy
As of writing this, the quarterly Tankan measure of business sentiment has been released and it was mostly positive for the Japanese economy. Unfortunately for Yen bulls, the pair is not behaving the way one would expect after such optimistic data. We are currently 30 pips below the 118.60 high from April, but more importantly this pair is basing very nicely above 118. This is the strongest the Dollar has looked in this pair in a while. Be careful of any Dollar shorts in this pair, as we could possibly see quite a violent move to the upside. Our strategies have been short the Yen for the last week and a half.

Usd/Chf
This pair made a very strong move to .2550 before a retracement to around the .2500 resistance level we pointed out on Friday. It may take strong US ISM data to bring this pair back up to Friday’s highs. Note that there is a large level of resistance in the .2550-.2600 level. Let’s call .2450 as near term support. No Swiss economic data due tomorrow.

What Our Strategies Are Telling Us as of 10/1, 9:00 PM ET:
We have 10 strategies that we will report to our clients on a daily basis in regards to their respective dollar bias. Our intent is not to provide investment advice to those who read this following section. We are merely reporting the biases that our strategies are exhibiting.

Eur/Usd
$ Neutral Bias
Usd/Jpy
$ Long Bias
Usd/Chf
$ Long Bias

For a 3rd straight sessions are strategies are maintaining the same Dollar long net bias. The nice move by the Dollar against the Yen and Swiss is making our respective strategies happy, while they’re still trying to get a “feel” for what is going on the Euro. Participation is still around 60%. It seems as if our strategies are just sitting on their profits for now.

Thank you for your continued support, and keep track of our strategy progress at: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/si...acker/tracker/ along with the equity charts and real-money profit and loss report on our website. If you would like to receive our commentary before it is released to the public for free in PDF format, please send us your e-mail, and we will gladly include you on the subscribers list.

T2
www.tsquaredtrading.com