Zorro_Trading_Group by FXiGoR - Page 91

iGoR · #**901** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 07:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegg

Hi,

I didn't get the mail with instructions and indicators.
I only got October recap mail.

Sending you my email on PM, to avoid spam bots ...

Thanks,
G.G.

Contacting you true PM.

regards...iGoR

iGoR · #**902** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 08:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thegg

Hi,

I didn't get the mail with instructions and indicators.
I only got October recap mail.

Sending you my email on PM, to avoid spam bots ...

Thanks,
G.G.

Mail with instructions send again to new mail adress that you gave me.

regards...iGoR

claudioforex · #**903** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 08:14 AM

Your guarantee for a minimum 1000 pips a months is nice, but any martingale system can provide such performance. This guarantee should also be on the max dd that the system will ever make....

So can you guarantee that if, at some point, the system makes more than 3000 pips in the next 6 months, you will also reimburse your members for all their susbscription fees paid to you in these 6 months? If not, what max DD can you guarantee?

iGoR · #**904** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claudioforex

Your guarantee for a minimum 1000 pips a months is nice, but any martingale system can provide such performance. This guarantee should also be on the max dd that the system will ever make....

So can you guarantee that if, at some point, the system makes more than 3000 pips in the next 6 months, you will also reimburse your members for all their susbscription fees paid to you in these 6 months? If not, what max DD can you guarantee?

First of all this system is not a martingale system.
Secondly there is no one that needs to tell me what I should do.
Thirdly I give already a guarantee that no other vendor would give you.
Fortly, give a finger to some people and they want to cut of your whole arm.
Fiftly, you can always look around for other vendors that will give you what you demand.

friendly regards...iGoR

hellbet · #**905** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iGoR

Recap on the month October:
that is calculated on not having more then 19 consecutive losses)( the chance of having 19 consecutive losses in a row with a flipping coin system or 50% hitrate is 1 out of several billions

For a given probability of .5 like the coin toss, odds are 1 out of 524.288 chance of hitting a series of 19 losses (2^19). Thats means you have to repeat this experiment 524.887 times (and finishing any uncompleted series) before you get one series of 19 losses in a row.

Now, if we include the average length of series, I calculate we shall find the 'losing' sequence of 19 losses once in 2 millions of events (that is, any 1 min. random candle) or once in every 4.6 year.

If this system 'jumps' on a 17 loss series, my calculation, accounting for true random events like I understand it, is around 1 loss for each and every 500.000 trials (minutes or candles) that is around once in a year.

Caveat emptor,
H

iGoR · #**906** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hellbet

For a given probability of .5 like the coin toss, odds are 1 out of 524.288 chance of hitting a series of 19 losses (2^19). Thats means you have to repeat this experiment 524.887 times (and finishing any uncompleted series) before you get one series of 19 losses in a row.

Now, if we include the average length of series, I calculate we shall find the 'losing' sequence of 19 losses once in 2 millions of events (that is, any 1 min. random candle) or once in every 4.6 year.

If this system 'jumps' on a 17 loss series, my calculation, accounting for true random events like I understand it, is around 1 loss for each and every 500.000 trials (minutes or candles) that is around once in a year.

Caveat emptor,
H

Not correct because a trial is not equal to a candle. A trial in an entry signal.
Not every bar gives an entry.
So if you calculate that we have an avg of 15 entrys/ day then this event should happen once every 33000 years.
And most important is that when this very unlickely problem would happen the day that you START that you loos 37% of your money. Wich we all know is no problem to recover from. Losing 37% of you initial balance is not the same as blowing up an account.
And if this happens a couple of months after you started and you made already a couple of 100%'s profit it is only giving back some partly profits.

regards...iGoR

jlpi · #**907** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hellbet

For a given probability of .5 like the coin toss, odds are 1 out of 524.288 chance of hitting a series of 19 losses (2^19). Thats means you have to repeat this experiment 524.887 times (and finishing any uncompleted series) before you get one series of 19 losses in a row.

Now, if we include the average length of series, I calculate we shall find the 'losing' sequence of 19 losses once in 2 millions of events (that is, any 1 min. random candle) or once in every 4.6 year.

If this system 'jumps' on a 17 loss series, my calculation, accounting for true random events like I understand it, is around 1 loss for each and every 500.000 trials (minutes or candles) that is around once in a year.

Caveat emptor,
H

Hellbet,

It's good that somebody else noticed the usual shortcuts and approximations of Igor (1 out of several billions

)
Nevertheless Igor is correct that you should take into consideration the number of trades per day (15) and not the number of M1 candles (1440).
So there is about a factor *100 in the calculation (still looks strange that one finds 4.6 years and the other 33000... That is much more than 100 times of difference)

Anyway there is something much more important: it is minimizing very much the risk to say that the crash (or big DD if you prefer) effect occurs only after 19 losing trades because that is only one of the possible combinaisons.
What about the cases
18L , 1W, 3L
5L, 1W, 5L, 1W, 5L, 1W, 5L, 1W, 5L, 1W, 5L, 1W
and so on...

So unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective...) the calculation is not so simple

iGoR · #**908** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 05:28 PM

Result for friday 31/10

pips/contracts/result
14/1/14
23/1/23
15/1/15
-17/1/-17
-23/2/-46
-38/3/-114
30/4/120
-11/2/-22
-18/4/-72
8/6/48
-21/2/-42
14/4/56
-20/4/-80
29/5/145
-35/5/-175
-3/7/-217
30/9/270
-23/8/-184
-4/11/-44
-27/11/-297
13/14/182
Total result: -437pips loss spread included

The day ends with a loss but the system is in a MM recovery where the results of that recovery will be seen on the results of monday.

I don't have the chart anymore from friday. Deleeted it and to much work to place the lines back.

All these trades were witnessed by the members in the video room.

To be continued...iGoR

iGoR · #**909** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 05:33 PM

Result for monday 3/11

Result for today for the members who were still in a MM recovery from friday:
pips/contracts/result
-11/11/-121
49/18/882
-13/8/-104
69/16/1104
-18/1/-18
43/2/86
-8/1/-8
-16/2/-32
-11/3/-33
-13/4/-52
13/5/65
Total result: +1769pips profit spread included

Total result over 17 trading days since we started with the SS_Q patern: +4773!! pips spread included.

Result for new members who would started from today without any MM recovery:
pips/contracts/result
-11/1/-11
49/2/98
-13/1/-13
69/2/138
-18/1/-18
43/2/86
-8/1/-8
-16/2/-32
-11/3/-33
-13/4/-52
13/5/65
Total result: +220pips profit spread included
The working range between high and low for today is 186pips. So NILFISK
the vacuum cleaner made again more profit then the daily range.

All these trades were witnessed by the members in the video room.

To be continued...iGoR

iGoR · #**910** (**permalink**) 11-03-2008, 05:39 PM

result over the last 17 trading days (since we started with the the SS_Q-patern system):
This result is without a compounding strategy.