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  #881 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 01:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mpower View Post
I saw Zorro is making big claims again and decided to see what the big fuss is about.

I took the data Igor presented for the "Super Safe Q Pattern" We have a small sample of data. Just 13 trading days. But it looks like the claims of 2:1 win/loss ratio are far off...and the claims of 66.66% winning trades are off too. Perhaps that was deviation from the long term results. He says that he back-tested 2 years of data and I believe him--he is honest!
Here are results without the martingale progression MM:
Net result: -52 pips
Percent winning trades: 47.09%
Average winning trade:20pips
Average losing trade: -19 pips
Total trades: 172- 91 losers, 81 winners
5 winning days, 8 losing days

The only thing that made this system profitable was the MM. The super safe Q pattern does not have any predictability nature. It has 0 to do with technical analysis. It just relies on the fact that markets will not be indecisive forever and eventually a portion of the average daily range will be broken either to the upside or the downside. So 17 losing trades are VERY unlikely to occur. And even if it happens the way Igor has designed the MM you will not blow your account.
I have made the conclusions based on the information presented in this thread. I am intelligent enough to evaluate it based on what Igor presents here. He is honest and transparent. Puts enourmous amount of effort into what he does. Consistently adapts his systems to withstand the challenges of a changing market.
Finally, this not a personal attack, but looking at data from a different perspective.

Enjoy the weekend everyone!!!!
Mpower,

First of all thanks for your contribution.

To help you out a bit with the calculations you made:
I don't know how you calculated this or based on what rules or based on what period.
With the rules of the Super-Safe_Q-patern system I do not claim anymore that we have a 66% hitrate. The hitrate is precisly 50%.

The difference between your avg. win/loss ratio and mine is when one would calculate a trade with or without the use of the MM plan (regardless of how many contracts that one would use on a partical trade).

The daily hitrate is 81% winning days (Over the last 16 trading days since we use the Super-Safe_Q-patern --13 winning and 3 losing).

There are indeed many ways to look at data profits drawdowns all depending what the criteria is that one is using.

But I think that we both agree that the results over these 16 days speak for themselves.
And the fact that the results of the S-S_Q system (hitrate and avg.win/loss ratio) no longer depend on trend or consolidation we know that this system will make money till the end of time.

A bit sad because here stops my quest and search for the ultimate system.
As you say it has nothing to do with TA and of course nothing with any FA.

I said in the room last week to the members that when I look to all the calcaultions I made on the SS-Q system it is a garanteed money making machine but it is a bit sad to see that it has nothing to do with learning how to trade or how to capture the market conditions. It is purely based on statistics and stacking up the odds in our favour. But that is emmidiatly also the key element why we are no longer under the infleunce of trend or consolidation.

It is a choise that one needs to make. Or learning how to trade but accept that with all the TA one has that it is an endless struggle between profit or loss in trend or consolidation.
Or accepting to execute signals without knowing anything about the markets itself or its dynamics but garanteed making money with it regardless of trend or consolidation.

I descided at this point in my life to go for the 2nd option but in my hart I will always stay a technical analist. And the beauty of the system is that it also leaves a lot of room for the one that wants to trade in a discretionay way. As I have proofed last week with my personal results and also some other members in the room who made more profit then the system itself.

Friendly regards and nice weekend to you to...iGoR
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MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Last edited by iGoR; 11-01-2008 at 01:55 PM.
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  #882 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 02:12 PM
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Great post

Great post Igor!!!!
I completely understand now. You have tailored the system to make money, which is after all the goal of trading. I am glad that you did not take this as me attacking you.
I may have made data entry errors while entering into Excel, that is why my calculations are off. I apologize if that is the case.
My hat off too you for the work you have done over the past two-three years.

Take care!

Last edited by mpower; 11-01-2008 at 02:16 PM.
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  #883 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 03:45 PM
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Hello Igor,

I have a question about the Super-Safe_Q-pattern system that is traded in the room. Is this system based on stop and reverse like the previous system? That is only thing I didn't care for about the older system. Btw, nice recover from the 1000+ pip draw-down. The Labouchère system, also called the cancellation system is good a mm strategy. I came across an article you maybe interested in that would only require a 30% win rate to break-even.

The Winner's Edge System - A variant of the Labouchere System in Reverse: (Submitted by a visitor)

(Note: The description of the system is reproduced below the exact way it was submitted, word for word. The idea behind this system seems to make a lot of sense. However, the betting procedure and the amounts involved are not clear. If anyone can help in clarifying this, it will be greatly appreciated.)

"This is one invited by a Canadian many years ago. It is like the Cancellation System above with this variation: When winning, ( add the first and last number in the sequence ), the first time, and then 3 numbers until you lose. If you lose, add that to the end of the sequence and bet only the first(only one) number not crossed off. If you lose again, go to betting the unit bet, to preserve capital. I have found one needs about 40 times the first number in the sequence when starting as a bankroll , with the initial numbers being about 40-20-20-20 % (ie $50. sequence would be written: $20-10-10-10.)Your bankroll taken to the table will be $1000.00.This means, I've found that you only have to win 30% of the time to be successful! I have used this very successfully in the casinos, to the point that I was asked to leave the table several times, as the casinos don't want consistent winners. It scares them. This system requires nerve, fearlessness and an appropriate bank roll. When playing Baccarat, I was winning $4000. an hour , but again, don't back off pushing the money out, or you will lose. The system really forces one to bet large when winning and small when losing, which is exactly the opposite of what most people do- and what the casino expects.You also need high enough table limits . It can be used playing blackjack, baccarat or roulette, but is best for blackjack. Make sure you get their OK to write the bets down before you start, and tell them you are not counting cards."
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  #884 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 04:39 PM
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Hi icfxtrader,

I don't know if you say you did not like the S&R orders or that you do like them.
But if you do not like them that is because there is something wrong in the way you look at it or that you don't realy know how to use your broker platform in proper way.
If you would really know the advantges of those orders you would look to it in an other way.

A normal order that you take has always the element of slipage. That slipage can be a real killing element on many day trading systems.
The moment you work with limit orders ( as the S&R order) there is not 1pip slipage that needs to be taken in account.

75% of our trades are S&R trades. So that means that 75% of the trades have no more slipage to be taken in account.

In the beginning some members in the room had also difficultys with S&R orders. They tought that they needed to place 2 orders. 1 Order to close the 1st trade and a 2nd order to take in the reverse trade.
But that takes to much work. With every normall broker you can do that with only 1 order and in an easy way. But I must be honest I do not count an MT4 broker under the easy brokers. Even more the way one strugles with those order windows is just redicilous.
I have calculated last week that it takes 7 clicks before your order is placed with a MT4 broker. With my broker it takes 2 clicks.

Abou the MM:
I don't know how they call that MM but I can asure you that I invented it on myself in the room. But I am sure also that other people came up with the same idea. It would have suprised me that no one else would have ever tought about this in the same way.

I don't really understand what you post about that MM.
I can only refer to my public webinar video if you want to learn more about the MM we use.
Be carefull to use this MM only with a system that has an extreem relaible hitrate and extreem relaible avg.win/loss ratio.
The moment that you use this with systems where the losses are bigger then the profits you have an MM that will kill your system.
Also systems that can produce 10 consecutive losses in a row on a regular base (like nearly all trend following systems) you will get in serious mental problems.
As said in an earlier post to mpower you need to have a system that does not use any market dynamics ( not under any infleunce of trend or consolidation)
Or in other words, if you test your system without the MM and you see that trend or consildation is influencing your results you need to stay away from that MM.

regards...iGoR
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MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Last edited by iGoR; 11-01-2008 at 04:48 PM.
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  #885 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 05:29 PM
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results for NILFISK the vacuumcleaner over this week:

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Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Last edited by iGoR; 11-01-2008 at 06:13 PM.
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  #886 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 05:34 PM
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Hi Igor

I have not received any email from you,and I checked my spam...nothing
please send it to mochebaruh at gmail dot com
look forward to trade with you

thank you
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  #887 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 05:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moshebaruh View Post
Hi Igor

I have not received any email from you,and I checked my spam...nothing
please send it to mochebaruh at gmail dot com
look forward to trade with you

thank you
Patience is a good gift to every trader.
The weekend is not finshed yet.

regards...iGoR
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Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1
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  #888 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 06:12 PM
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Recap on the month October:

The end of my quest for the ultimate system

This monthly recap should be one of the longest in my career but I going to try to stay as brief as possible.

After nearly 13 years I reached my goal I arrived at the end of the line, my quest for the HOLY GRAIL came to an end.
I the past I made several times claims that I would never get closer to a holy grail then on that moment.
But how beautiful the results are of a system the emotional aspects stay the most important element in how disciplinized a trader will take in the trades of a 100% mechanical system.

For that reason I have continued to work on my systems and I came to the ultimate system where people have now 100% trust in the system.
A system where I can mathematical proof it will always work and is no longer under the influence of trend or consolidation.
Most system developers know that if they could make a reliable indicator or a set of rules that could see the difference between trend and consolidation in a non-laging way, that this means that they would have found the “HOLY GRAIL”.

That means if we have a system where the results do not depend on trend or on consolidation that we can claim that we have found the HOLY GRAIL.

The members are now 100% convinced of what the system can do and they have 100% trust in the system because of the 100% mathematical proof I provided on the system.
The past 16 trading days are absolutely confirming the calculations that I made.
Other system need backtest to have some proof but. But our system does not use any indicator or trying to catch trend. It is purely based on statistics and stacking up the odds in our favour. That way the proof for further results can be given in a mathematical way.

I found a posting on the forex-tsd forum that perfectly describes what our system is about and how it works:
- The system takes calculated risks based on the 100% randomness of the market and the 50% hitrate. It use TP and SL with a favourable reward/risk ratio. Coupled with money management strategies, it is stacking up the odds in its favour.

- The system thinks outside the box and doesn’t use price action, and find the exploit it needs to trade the market. It creates a system around this exploit. That makes it an “always money making” system that will always work.

With always making money I do not mean that the system does not make losses.
By always I mean it does not depend on market conditions such as trend or consolidation where other systems depend on.

Here are 5 important mathematical conclusions we can make on the system for the eur/usd ( the system works on all pairs but the pips in draw down and profit are for each pair different depending on it avg. daily range):
1) The drawdown will stay less then 3000pips ( that is calculated on not having more then 19 consecutive losses)( the chance of having 19 consecutive losses in a row with a flipping coin system or 50% hitrate is 1 out of several billions) And if that situation would happen we will loos 40% of our money. So that is still not blowing up the account.

2) The profit over 1 year is calculate based on the avg. daily ranges.
If the avg. daily range is about 100pips then the system will end up around +20000 (twenty thousand pips). If it stays like it is now (more then 200pips avg. daily range) then the system will end up over more then 40000 ( forty thousand) pips.

3) The amount of winning days will be between 70 and 80%.

4) The avg. daily profit that the system will make will be bigger then the avg. daily
working range.

5) The weekly profit will be bigger then the weekly range a pair will make (bigger then the range between high and the low a pair makes over a week.

- these mathematical conclusions and calculations for the future results are far more reliable then any back test one would do true an EA based on historical data.
No optimisation is done for these results. Again they are based on mathematical probabilitys that we know and can depent on. Hitrate, avg win/loss ratio, avg. daily ranges and no influence of trend or consolidation.


As said I would like to keep this mail or posting short.
To proof I am so absolutely convinced how good our system works and how profitable it is and it will not depend on any trend or consolidation the next month I am giving you the following guarantee:
If the Super-Safe_Q-patern system does not make at some point during the next month a profit of more then 1000 (one thousand) pips net profit then you can enter next month for free in the room or I give you a 100% refund of the 89€ subscription. Immediately on your request and no question asked
.

The signals are easy to take in and 75% of the trades are limit orders waiting on your platform so no slippage that needs to be taken in account for those trades.

I said in the room last week to the members that when I look to all the calculations I made on the SS-Q system it is a guaranteed money making machine but it is a bit sad to see that it has nothing to do with learning how to trade or how to capture the market conditions. It is purely based on statistics and stacking up the odds in our favour. But that is immediately also the key element why we are no longer under the influence of trend or consolidation.

It is a choice that one needs to make.
Or learning how to trade but accept that with all the technical analysis one has that it is an endless struggle between profit or loss in trend or consolidation.
Or accepting to execute signals based on mathematical statistics without knowing anything about the markets itself or its dynamics but guaranteed making money with this system regardless of trend or consolidation.

I decided at this point in my life to go for the 2nd option but in my hart I will always stay a technical analyst. And the beauty of the system is that it also leaves a lot of room for the one that wants to trade in a discretionary way. As I have proofed last week with my personal results and also some other members in the room who made more profit then the system itself.
To become a member send mail to: zorro_trading_group@hotmail.com

Friendly regards…iGoR

All teaching and trading is done in a LIVE video room where one can follow and see my trading platform. Each member receives all indicators and templates so each individual has the has thesystem on his platform.

The subscription is now adjusted to 89€. You can only pay true paypal.
To make the payment you do this in paypal to the attention of:
T_S_R-trading@hotmail.com
After I receive your payment I will send you all indicators templates and instructions how to join the trading group and the link of the video so in a few hours you can fully understand what this system is about and how to trade it.


Total result for the Super-Safe_Q-patern for October only on the eur/usd ( only 16 trading days) +3004pips.
3 losing days 13 winning days.
__________________
Success comes with knowledge. Knowledge comes with experience. Experience comes with time and hard work... (iGoR)
MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Last edited by iGoR; 11-01-2008 at 06:55 PM.
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  #889 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 06:47 PM
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Igor,

You may want to reconsider some of the text in your post since this is a commercial section

The super safe and holy grail , doesn't go along with the chance of blowing 40% of the account , even if that chance is slim

in forex never say never , the market is full for surprises, and last month was a good example

Regards
ICON
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  #890 (permalink)  
Old 11-01-2008, 07:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ICON View Post
Igor,

You may want to reconsider some of the text in your post since this is a commercial section

The super safe and holy grail , doesn't go along with the chance of blowing 40% of the account , even if that chance is slim

in forex never say never , the market is full for surprises, and last month was a good example

Regards
ICON
Your way of understanding the terminology of holy grail and Super-Safe is not the same as mine and starting a dsicussion on that subject is of no use.

You should read the mathematical conclusions. profit 20000 and drawdown 3000. That is what the members take in account. Risk of losing 40% reward of 280%
That means that the reward is 7 x times as big as the profit.

If one wants only to have a risk of losing 10% of his account that is fine for me. Or even if he only want to have 1% loss on his account.

The only thing he needs to remember is that his profit or reward will be 7X times as big as his risk (non-compounding). Regardless of trend or consolidation.
You refer to last month. I don't know what you mean by last month. Was it the market action ??....as said market action is of no influence of our results.

If you know about a system who can achieve this then hold on to it because that is a Holy Grail.
I am around long enough to know what a normal system can do a very good system can do and what can be called a holy grail.

regards...iGoR

PS. Indeed I am in the commercial section. That is why I gave a 100% garantee on results. Where other vendors say: results in the past are no garantee for results in the future.
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MT Intelligence - Stats for fxigor1

Last edited by iGoR; 11-01-2008 at 07:10 PM.
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