According to the latest Speculative Sentiment Index, open positions in the Japanese Yen are down 15 percent overnight. Banks are also reporting that Japanese retail FX traders have reduced their positions by more than 80 percent which suggests that Mrs. Watanabe is getting shaken out by the recent moves as well. Who’s to blame her for bailing given the fact that GBP/JPY fell 700 points from its high today and 1200 points since the beginning of the week. These losses far outweigh any interest income. The liquidation however was not limited to the Yen crosses as the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar both fell over 3 percent against the buck. Flight to safety continues to benefit the US dollar as traders are forced to close out their risky positions and move back to cash. Yesterday was “red letter Thursday” when investors had their last opportunity to demand their money back by the end of September. Hedge funds will have to raise cash to meet these withdrawal requests by liquidating their assets. We are already seeing triple digit losses in the Dow. Also, margin calls in general have taken a lot of traders out of the markets. As of close of business today, the CME and CBOT will be increasing their margin requirements on some currency, interest rate, and stock-index futures which mean that regular retail investors will also have to fork up more cash (which they may not be willing to) or bear the pain of margin calls. Once most of speculators are stopped out, that is typically when we have a bottom in periods of liquidation. Therefore we expect a few hundred point bounce in the Yen crosses over the next few days. However given the gravity of today’s moves a bounce will not negate the overall downtrend which is true even if USD/JPY manages to rally back up to 118.

A lot of losses but thanks god we didn't strike one

Please call your trading room for actions to be taken

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aleccoh

Bonjour,

Décidément, le Forex nous apporte bien des surprises...
Nous sommes en plein milieu d'une crise déclenchée par les "subprimes" US et soutenue maintenant par l'aversion de l'appétit pour le risque.

Que se passe t-il ?
- Les intervenants du marché achètent massivement des USD, afin de les convertir en valeurs refuges (Gold, Bons du Trésor US).
- Les positions de carry trading fondent comme neige au soleil.
- Les places boursières sont dans le rouge.

La question principale aux Etats-Unis, c'est qu'on a refusé, pendant très longtemps, de voir le problème immobilier. Sous le prétexte que la croissance était soutenue, que l'inflation était maitrisée et que les entreprises produisaient d'excellents résultats, on ne s'est pas inquiété de la recrudescence du marché du subprime.
Or, ce dernier a mis les ménages dans une tenaille. En effet, les particuliers se sont retrouvés à payer des mensualités qui augmentaient, du fait de la hausse des taux d'intérêts, alors que les garanties bancaires ne couvraient plus les crédits. Ils se retrouvaient donc à payer de plus en plus pour un bien qui valait de moins en moins.
Il faut savoir que le subprime est destiné à des personnes qui sont à la limite de la solvabilité. Pour permettre à ceux qui sont déjà endettés, parfois à un haut niveau, d'emprunter, le subprime prête de l'argent à des taux excessivement élevés. Les établissements de prêts prenaient plus de risques, ils en prenaient donc compte dans leurs taux d'intérêt.
Maintenant, au regard de la crise actuelle aux Etats-Unis, il est certain que les répercussions vont être conséquentes, notamment sur la consommation. Celle-ci va en effet reculer vu que d'ici deux où trois mois, l'impact de la crise va se répercuter sur les particuliers. Le pays va ainsi se voir imputer de quelques points de pourcentage sur sa croissance.


La valeur de l'Euro est actuellement très sous-évaluée. Par contre les mouvements de ventes massives sur les paires devises à haut rendement ne sont peut-être pas terminées (USD/JPY - GBP/JPY - NZD/USD).

Il faut donc être patient et prudent. Le marché vas s'auto-réguler comme il l'a déjà fait.

Texte extrait de FXMGM.COM Newsletter

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aleccoh

When will start the new competition I can't wait?

The aleccoh Trading Team is happy to announce that Finaly, and after years of Looking for the "Perfect Broker" , We Decided That the best course of action to serve you was to open our own Brokerage Firm in order to be able to give Pro Trading means to ordinary traders

Launching of the Brokerage Firm will be on September 2nd 2007

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aleccoh

Sounds interesting, i will wait until the 2nd before i start asking for futher details. All the best for your launch!

hmm...sounds interesting... i'll sit back, see and wait too before i start to jump in.

Hi Alecoh,

Is all of your accounts still in positive during the last drop in the market.

Regards
Fire

At Last, and after 18 hours of Delay due to last Minutes Server adjustments, The aleccohFx Official Site Brokerage House is Up and Running.

Hope we will fill together The gap that other Brokers Created.

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aleccoh

Hello

Of course all accounts are not in the positive since the bloody thursday crash, But we were able to sustain the Tsunami of the 2000 pips / 4 days drop of the gbpjpy since we always take the worse scenarion into consideration before going live with our Customers funds.
Nevertheless, we had some instances of customers who's nerves didn't handle the drawdown (eventhough under control) and prefered to close at loss. Its there choices and they are after all the decision makers and We respect there Decisions.

Nevertheless, all accounts are recovering pretty well and gaining Swaps + Pips.

The important thing to us , is the honesty we share with our customers who trusted us in the good and bad days.

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aleccoh

Hello aleccoh ,Congrats for the new Inc . All the best and God bless