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  #61 (permalink)  
Old 10-14-2006, 04:54 AM
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Hello Bill,

You have mentioned a few times about maximum drawdown of $2500 or so depending upon the settings of course. My question is after such a drawdown if still the market moves in unfavorable direction then whats the recourse. What is the chance of wiping out of the entire capital if one uses your Grid EA solely?

Thanks.
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  #62 (permalink)  
Old 10-14-2006, 05:13 AM
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If I have to exactly follow your settings just to have a feel of the system, could you please post the rest of the parameters, For example :-------


Long Top = ??
Long Bottom = ??
Short Top = ??
Short Bottom = ??
Order Size = 0.01
Step Size = 5
Take Profit = ??
Max Drawdownlong = 2500
Max Drawdownshort = 2500
Hedgelotsize = ??
DrawDownStep = 100
DrawDownPips = 30
TrailingStop = 30

CloseOutOfGrids = ?? (After I attach to the chart)
ProfitTarget = ??
ReopenOnTP = ??
CloseOrders = ??
CloseOnlyPending = ??
CloseOnlyShort = ??
CloseOnlyLong = ??

Please let us know the fields marked with ??, I had gone thru the PDF file but still not confident in using the parameters myself.

Thanks and regards,

Arup

Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddyguy
Hi,

Please check post #48 - "the market is like a river..."

Unfortunately, there is no optimum. You need to evaluate a number of datum and your personal preferences.

Which pair are you trading?
Trending or ranging?
Volatile?
How big is your account?
What is your risk tolerance?
Etc...

I will share my personal preferences and you can extrapolate from there. Forward testing is exactly the right way to get a feel for this!

I set my hedge size to equal the cumulative lot size in 100 pips. I am trading .01 at 5 pip steps, so my hedge size is .2.

I have my max drawdown at $2,500 because I don't want it to trigger until extreme moves are made.

I have my drawdown step at $100. Each time the max drawdown is hit, it moves the step for the next hit $100 farther away. Remember, this is related to order and step size.

I have my drawdown pips set at 30 - it must move at least 30 pips before another hedge is placed.

I have my trailing stop at 30. That seems to give me a pretty good chance of making money on the hedge and not cause too much pain if it turns back immediately and stops out the hedge.

FYI - I base my trade size on whatever will produce about 1%/day. I am earning around 1.4%/day this month in a real full size account. In this way it seems that I have plenty of cash/margin to handle any dramatic moves when I need the margin to execute hedge trades.

Finally, I seem to like the GBPUSD the best for this. Plenty of action, low interest and pip values in nice round numbers... To repeat myself, I like a wide two-directional grid. When I do that, most of my job is to keep the electricity bill paid so the computer doesn't stop...

Have fun testing this,
Bill
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  #63 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 03:31 AM
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Argggg.... (sound of head banging against a wall)

Quote:
Originally Posted by takechance
Hello Bill,

You have mentioned a few times about maximum drawdown of $2500 or so depending upon the settings of course. My question is after such a drawdown if still the market moves in unfavorable direction then whats the recourse. What is the chance of wiping out of the entire capital if one uses your Grid EA solely?

Thanks.
Please... load the robot in a demo account, let it run and check it every day. Let it go for several weeks and you will know everything you need. The answers will become clear. Your question assumes that the market makes a quantum leap hundreds of pips instantly. That doesn't happen does it?

Questions for you:
What happens every day while the grid runs? (It generates profits)
What happens if it generates 1%/day for a month? (Your account grows 25%)
At that point, what is your net equity with a $2500 drawdown? (You still have $3750, not $2500).
What does the hedge trade feature do when the drawdown hits $2500 or whatever you choose? (It minimizes or eliminates drawdown to protect the account. Meanwhile, you are still adding 1%/day with my approach).

Take care,
Bill
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  #64 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 03:52 AM
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Parameters

Quote:
Originally Posted by takechance
If I have to exactly follow your settings just to have a feel of the system, could you please post the rest of the parameters, For example :-------


Long Top = ??
Long Bottom = ??
Short Top = ??
Short Bottom = ??
Order Size = 0.01
Step Size = 5
Take Profit = ??
Max Drawdownlong = 2500
Max Drawdownshort = 2500
Hedgelotsize = ??
DrawDownStep = 100
DrawDownPips = 30
TrailingStop = 30

CloseOutOfGrids = ?? (After I attach to the chart)
ProfitTarget = ??
ReopenOnTP = ??
CloseOrders = ??
CloseOnlyPending = ??
CloseOnlyShort = ??
CloseOnlyLong = ??

Please let us know the fields marked with ??, I had gone thru the PDF file but still not confident in using the parameters myself.

Thanks and regards,

Arup
The rest of the parameters are up to YOU! Be confident and try it! What do you have to lose running a free demo on a free demo account? Roll up your sleeves, fire up the program and get your hands dirty. At worst, you will gain an understanding of the system. At best, you are on your way to some very steady profits for very little work. What's not to like about that?

SETTINGS
Long Top = ??, Long Bottom = ??, Short Top = ??, Short Bottom = ??
What are your goals? Short or long term grid? How big is your account? What currency are you using? How large are your steps? YOU decide.

Take Profit = ??
What currency are you using? How much money do you want each time a trade closes? How "wiggly" is the market you chose? Is it more likely to make 10 pip or 20 pip moves? Read the previous post about the wiggly-ness of the marekt, then YOU decide.

Hedgelotsize = ??
What is your order size? What is your order steps? There is no fixed answer. Read the FAQ, page 3 "HedgeLotSize" then YOU decide.

CloseOutOfGrids = ??
Do you want to shut down the grid if the market goes out of your range?

ProfitTarget = ??
Are you scalping the grid? How much money do you want before you exit?

ReopenOnTP = ??
Do you want it to automatically reopen a grid or wait for you to do it manually?

CloseOrders = ??
Do you want to close all the orders in the grid?

CloseOnlyPending = ??
Do you want to close all the pending orders in the grid?

CloseOnlyShort = ??
Do you want to close the short side of the grid?

CloseOnlyLong = ??
Do you want to close the long side of the grid?

Give it a whack for a few weeks and tell us how you did. You can even set up several variations in the SAME account with different grid names and compare them later.

Take care,
Bill
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  #65 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 06:34 PM
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Optimum grid settings revealed!

Ok everyone,

Here is an experiment to run for those who are looking for the “optimum” settings for the CheckGrid. Before anyone asks, the answer is “no”, I’m not going to run these experiments for you and post the results. I’ve already done this work as I developed the robot and my grid theories. It is up to anyone who wants to explore the different settings to set it up and learn the results. It would take very little real time and effort.

This is a one week experiment. To perform this experiment, you will need to open 8 demo accounts with the same broker, from the same computer at the same time. This will eliminate any variations between brokers, network, etc. You will also need to wear a white lab coat and safety glasses at all times during the week everywhere you go. It is also helpful if you have a thoughtful frown on your face for the week. This is science, remember?

The purpose of this experiment is to provide a comparative analysis of TP, directional, currency, and step settings.

Use the following settings as your base:

Account #1 (BASE)
GBPUSD
Long and short grid range 1.75 – 1.95
Order size .01
Step size 5
Take profit 6
Email freq 24

Account #2 using base change TP to 10.
Account #3 using base change TP to 14.
Account #4 using base change currency to USDJPY and long/short grid to 1.07-1.27.
Account #5 using base change currency to EURUSD and long/short grid to 1.15-1.35.
Account #6 using base change short grid settings to 0.
Account #7 using base change long grid settings to 0.
Account #8 using base change step size to 10.

****Do not engage the hedge trader. If activated it may skew the results with additional profit/loss trades.****

Fire these up at the same time, preferably before the market opens Sunday and let them run through Friday’s close. Once complete, create a detailed report and print the last page with the graph.

Compare 1, 2, 3 for number of trades, profits per trade, total profitability.
Compare 1, 4, 5 for volatility between currencies, all of which contain the USD for "scientifical-like" controls.
Compare 1, 6, 7 for number of trades, total profitability and drawdown. Determine if the market was ranging or trending when applying this analysis.
Compare 1, 8 for total profits where 1 has a one pip “overlap” in step 5/TP 6, and 8 has a four pip “gap” in step 10/TP 6.

This should be enough to get started for anyone who REALLY wants to learn.

Note: This will provide a relatively good answer for the “optimum” settings during this particular week. I promise that in the future if the market provides EXACTLY the same activity for a week, the most profitable settings from this experiment will be the optimum settings. However, if there are ANY differences in market activity in future weeks, you will need to adjust your settings based on your knowledge of the effects of setting changes, which is in turn based on your settings experiments in demo accounts, which is in turn based on experiments.

Go for it, and have fun,
Bill

P.S., next week you can set up fresh demo accounts, use account #1 as a base, and experiment with various hedge parameters.

P.P.S, one major goal is to push the settings hard to see what it takes to trash a demo account. Once you learn how to destroy an account, you will know to avoid those kinds of settings in a real account, right? In my tests I would blow up 4-5 demo accounts per WEEK as I discovered what works, and what doesn’t. If you are going to just “play it safe” with optimum settings, you will never learn what can hurt your account until it is too late. Remember that!
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  #66 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 08:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddyguy
Use the following settings as your base:

Account #1 (BASE)
GBPUSD
Long and short grid range 1.75 – 1.95
Order size .01
Step size 5
Take profit 6
Email freq 24

Account #2 using base change TP to 10.
Account #3 using base change TP to 14.
Account #4 using base change currency to USDJPY and long/short grid to 1.07-1.27.
Account #5 using base change currency to EURUSD and long/short grid to 1.15-1.35.
Account #6 using base change short grid settings to 0.
Account #7 using base change long grid settings to 0.
Account #8 using base change step size to 10.
Are accounts #6,7, & 8 using EURUSD or GBPUSD?

thanks
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  #67 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 08:30 PM
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YupYup is on a distinguished road
Uhm...

Quote:
Originally Posted by deeforex
Are accounts #6,7, & 8 using EURUSD or GBPUSD?

thanks
I would ASSume, that they are EURUSD, because you want to compare them with the other results

B
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  #68 (permalink)  
Old 10-15-2006, 08:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YupYup
I would ASSume, that they are EURUSD, because you want to compare them with the other results

B
how it's written it woulde seem that way but this
Quote:
Compare 1, 6, 7 for number of trades, total profitability and drawdown. Determine if the market was ranging or trending when applying this analysis.
Compare 1, 8 for total profits where 1 has a one pip “overlap” in step 5/TP 6, and 8 has a four pip “gap” in step 10/TP 6.
leads me to think GBPUSD
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  #69 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2006, 12:44 AM
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Using the base...

Quote:
Originally Posted by deeforex
Are accounts #6,7, & 8 using EURUSD or GBPUSD?

thanks

Well, "using base" would mean that we need to use the base, right? And the currency for the base would be....?

The purpose is to compare a long, short and bi-directional grid in the SAME CURRENCY. If two different currencies are used, the results are meaningless. That is why the second part of the experiment has another hint when it says to COMPARE account #1 with 6 and 7.

#8 compares grids with overlapping trades to those with gaps. Again, this comparison is only meaningful if the SAME CURRENCY is used.

Hope this helps,
Bill
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  #70 (permalink)  
Old 10-16-2006, 12:48 AM
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Just to be really, really clear

When I set up this experiment, it is not my intention that we start with settings #1, modify them for #2, then take settings for #2 and modify them for #3.

In each account start over with the settings from #1 and make the ONE CHANGE listed for that account.

Does it all make sense now?
Bill
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