Apologees, I've checked with my bank and the funds were in fact credited to me on 21st December. So my apologees, for my innacuracy.

Cal

"Blow up?" What does that mean?

Are you talking about my C4 robot? If so, it works perfectly and is being used by clients for correlation, carry trade, basket trade, news trade, and directional trading.

Are you talking about the correlation concept? If so, it always has and always will work. Correlation is a measurement of the relationship between two or more things and is simple math. It doesn't blow up.

Are you talking about the correlation between particular pairs? That is subject to change over time.

To explain in terms of our currency pairs - first you MUST understand that a strong positive/negative correlation happens because the common currency between the two pairs dominates the other two. If there is no clear dominance by the COMMON currency in the two pairs, the correlation will be close to zero, and therefore random.

Let's look at the EURUSD/GPBUSD. The common currency is the USD. Previously, the USD dominated the news compared to the EUR and GBP. Both currencies moved in a highly correlated manner in both short and medium terms.

In the last six months that dynamic has changed. News and economic factors in the secondary (non-common) pairs in this correlation example (EUR and GBP) have become a much stronger influence on these currency pairs. As such, the common currency (USD) no longer dominates the movement of these currency pairs. This drives the longer term correlation closer to zero, or random. A secondary issue is that these two economies have had a directional diversion. EUROland continues on some strength while Great Britain is on the decline.

This morning was a perfect example. The USD NFP dominated the news and the EURUSD/GBPUSD showed a high positive correlation for a couple hours. However, the weekly/monthly economic outlook and relative strength of the economic news of these three currencies shows a low correlation with some shades of a negative correlation.

This issue where the common currency in correlated pairs is not clearly dominant has been an issue across the entire market since last summer.

Trade carefully,
Bill

How has GoFXPro been performing since Jan 2008? The website does not show any updated performance results and I am wondering if this is still worth trying

I don't know what current status is but several of us lost money with GoFX.

Looked great for a couple of months and then just tanked.

Keep looking.

i have subscribed signal from a signal provider ( cannot mention here ). If anyone wants to try out. please PM your email. i will add into my googlegroup email

I consider the other post in this section and waiting for approval it is a mistake and you want to keep this one. The other post will be deleted.

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Bill,

I can't see how it isn't gambling.

The "dynamics" you speak of are subject to change without warning.

And there is confusion over whether trades are long or short term.

To me, either you are a rocket scientist, or a fast talker. No offense. Just that without a recipe (a set of rules) it is like listening to a PhD explain Quantum Mechanics. I think that if you could tell us how fundamentals and other tangibles play into this, it would be enlightening.

-TD

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Ideas are not trade advice.

Hi,

It's not gambling if one has taken the time to learn how the market works. Most successful traders would resent being called gamblers. It IS gambling when a newbie has no idea how the market works, how a system works, and throws real money on the table.

Correlation trades can be either long or short term. Long term correlation trading is better in the direction of positive swap, but that is discussed elsewhere in this thread. I prefer short term. Last August was a perfect example why. I was trading the EURUSD/GBPUSD correlation and went for a medium term trade. Wham - the news of the hoof and mouth disease hit England and the GBPUSD dropped fast and briefly decorrelated. When things settled down a few days later the strong correlation resumed, but the two pairs then had a several hundred pip negative separation and I was stuck in that stupid trade. Read my posts about walking through the mall as an explanation of correlation and divergence.

I am neither a rocket scientist or a fast talker. The dynamic is there. To explain a bit using the EURUSD/GBPUSD pair. First, understand that there are secondary influences on this correlation.

Rule - three related pairs always work mathmatically together. If the GBPUSD rises and the USDJPY rises, the cross (GBPJPY) will rise strongly. This is straight math. Multiply the GBPUSD by the USDJPY and you will get the price of the GBPJPY.

Correlary - if the price of the cross moves dramatically (GBPJPY sell off for example) the two primary pairs GBPUSD and USDJPY must move because the math works both ways.

Basically, the tail can sometimes wag the dog. The JPY crosses have been in violent movement since last June, causing mayhem in the primary pairs, and hence their correlations. Imagine a very, very, happy Labrador Retriever wagging his tail - the whole body is in motion, bouncing all over the place.

The primary factor is not the strength of a given currency in a correlated set, but rather the significance of that currency. For example, while the EUR was stronger a year ago than the USD, it was the USD that was more significant as it moved relatively more strongly than the EUR or GBP in response to technical, fundamental, and sentiment data. During the second half of the year, the relative significance of those currencies changed, which negatively affected the correlation, making it more random.

To use an illustration, imagine a very large parent holding the hands of two very small children. Those children will be pulled in the direction in which the parent travels. It is the parent who is significant. Then, imagine three small children holding hands. Nobody is significant, they have no correlated direction and are all over the sidewalk.

Rule - correlated trades always work best in pairs where the currency in common is significantly more dynamic (this does not mean stronger) than the other two currencies.

So, it is not the fundamentals, such as a GDP or payroll trend that is directly important, but how significantly that currency will behave relative to the other two currencies. A year ago the USD was far more significant than the EUR or GBP, so the EURUSD/GBPUSD pair was logical. Is the USD more significant today? No. In fact, on given days or weeks, any of these three can take the lead at this time. That is the current "dynamic."

I hope this helps.

Trade carefully,
Bill

Hi,

Yes, his performance is back on track in the last few months. I do not have the precise numbers. I would suggest you either wait until he is ready to update his site, or contact him directly.

Take care,
Bill

Hi,

Yes, I also lost money. I didn't like that very much. I spent some time going through the strengths and weaknesses of trading and have a couple observations.

First, one must control for risk of loss. Things happen in the market and capital preservation must be an absolute priority.

Second, in most trading there is room for judgment error. For example, my grid trading program is fabulously profitable when the trader correctly anticipates the market and sets up the grid appropriately (long/short/countertrend/whatever). But, if the judgment is poor, the results will be poor. Further, a team tends to have better judgment than an individual - or at least better consistency.

To address these issues I have done three things.

First, I have designed a capital preservation structure that eliminates any exposure to trading losses. Initial capital is preserved no matter what the trading results.

Second, I have identified an experienced trading team which has a long term steady track record and a good success rate.

Third, I have spent five months developing my latest robot to the point where it runs almost completely autonomously with very little user interaction in both trending and ranging markets. There have been a LOT of experiments and testing to get this done. It is not sexy and there is very little for the user to do, but it grinds out the profits at the rate of 1% per day-ish. For example, last night it returned a little over 2% net booked with the account now flat. I am just putting the finishing touches on it this week.

I have combined these three parts with a couple other bits, and created a company which will use both trading systems and the capital preservation strategy. The upside could be very, very good, the downside is eliminated.

Take care,
Bill