ES how is your statement looking now after the last 2 weeks? Are you still positive or have the gains been eliminated?

Let's all hope next week Bill can turn it around

cfd,

I got 200 bucks of the 600 bucks left (3.77% DD). I am a little slow on the trigger here because Bill Y. trades EXACTLEY the way I like. You will notice that we have had a string of losses...they are very small and he is fishing thats all...I remain confident that Bill B's tools and Bill Y's experience will find their way..

You must excuse me, I just received the worst complement that I could have received in a few posts back. I am allergic to vendor's and IB's...I have been on both sides of the business and I CHOSE to be a trader and I thought I made that clear. I am selling nothing. Trading is my Life's work.

ES

In Bills defense.... Since losses are small, it won't take much for it to go into profit over the medium/long term. Please keep posting statements and we'll watch over time. Thanks ES/confusedxx for spending the time to do this.

Mark

Let's see what we can sort out. The TP is dollars - not pips and not a %. The relative profit switch allows you to calculate a relative profit target for changing lot sizes. Example - $80 TP on two full size lots would be a relative profit of $40 on two half lots. If you add to the positions (or remove) the relative profit will adjust.

Trading with the trend is both simple and very, very hard to do. EURUSD and GPBUSD as an example. If the USD is trashed, the trend for both of these should be up. How strong the trend for each is depends on their individual strengths, which change each time someone like Trichet opens their mouth and pops off about the economy. Since these two should be positively correlated, watch to see if that is the case and trade in opposite directions. If the EURUSD is moving up more strongly, that is the one you take long.

Side Bar - I am firmly convinced that these yahoos are actively trying to affect market strength through sound bites rather than real action, which often conflict and cause confusion in the market. I am personally convinced that Bernake's letter at the end of August that "leaked" was a huge bone thrown to the large hedge funds to allow them to recover some of their mid-August losses at the expense of the smaller traders. But, then that is just my personal opinion based on some very "convenient" timing...

Ok, I'm off my soap-box again.

If caught in a counter trend, use techniques such as scaling into more positions, or out of them. If you are long the EURUSD and it is climbing, but too slowly, offload some GPBUSD or add to the EURUSD, or take a position in the cross if you have practiced with that.

Events also have a factor. Example - the EURUSD/GBPUSD correlation fell apart in early August with the hoof and mouth disease warning. That was unexpected. That gives one the opportunity to watch for a strong upswing/retracement in the GBPUSD once the panic has subsided that was NOT matched by an upswing in the EURUSD. A week or so after the news was a good time to watch for the recovery decorelation, trading the EURUSD/GBPUSD short/long.

NOTE: - I am continually asked (3x weekly on average) for the BEST settings for the robots. People, there are none. There never will be. None. Stop asking. Do some personal thinking. The BEST settings match the current market. For most of the first six months of 2007 one could have taken most any JPY cross long and ignored the market (expect for that pesky spike down at the end of February) and gone to back to bed. I would have gained thousands in pips and swap. But, that was then, this is now AND lots of that is hindsight.

Take care,
Bill

Hi - from this information, I can't tell. I don't know if you are both long/short, or what. I suspect that some of this has to do with the large spread on each GBPJPY pair - but that is a guess right now.

Take care,
Bill

This is the kinds of statement that just bugs the hell out of me because it gives the wrong impression to the new traders. A volatile market with lots of reversals is the worst kind of market to trade and is ONLY profitable if 1) the trader is LUCKY enough to catch just the favorable moves and get out, or 2) willing to expose their account to large drawdowns in longer term trades which will either recover to produce profits, or not recover and create large real losses.

If volatility = profitability I would ask why the huge funds with their huge banks of funds, information, talent, and experience have not made serious bank recently.

DV - may we assume that you did very well in September in this volatile market? You are invited to post your LIVE trading results (as a % - we don't need to know your actual dollars. It is not our business). If you do, I ask that you also post your trade sizes as a % of the account, as well as your maximum inter-trade drawdowns, again as a % so the risk levels you took can be evaluated.

Let me make something clear, especially the newer traders. It is impossible to expect that large drawdowns will never continue into large losses. They do not ALWAYS turn around and recover into profitability. Volatility does NOT = profitability, though profits may result. Volatility = unpredictability which is very, very dangerous. Last week I watched the AUDJPY market move upwards steadily, reverse down for 100+ pips in less than an hour for no significant reason, the reverse again upwards to recover that entire 100+ pips in less than another hours and continue the upward trend. That kind of volatility is untradable except by luck or a willingness to risk large losses.

Trade carefully,
Bill

ES, I could not have described it more accurately. "Fishing" is exactly what is happening, testing the waters each time it begins to look like it will settle down. He is risking no more than bait (if I may extend the analogy).

Every trader and every systems has markets where they don't work well. Everyone as a trader and anyone who considers becoming a client of any trader should understand those weaknesses. Bill Young's weakness is confused whipsaw markets. Why? Because he refuses to take large risks or large drawdowns which can become large losses. He has been correct on the trade and yet been stopped out at his risk limit more times than I can count this last month when there were short term pullbacks. It is impossible (at the time) to know if the negative move is really a short term pull back, or a significant direction change. That can only be learned later on looking back.

So let's compare bad months, shall we? Look at any of the "popular" systems out there. Pipboxer, H.A., WTA, etc. Check out their losses this summer. I know of one trader who lost 85%+ in real money. Read that again. Eighty five percent plus. Others just won't admit their losses, but were substantial. Bill Young and GoFX?. Well, he is down a few percent in what was a horrible month for his risk tolerance levels.

What does that mean? It means he still has the capital to stay in the game when the market settles down and make profits. My friend who lost 85%? He is no longer in the game.

Trade carefully,
Bill

Agree 100% Bill. This just shows untrained layman with uncontrolled greed in their mind!

At the same time many people made profits as they run more than 1 system and milk the market in many different ways.

you complain about 1.5% DD!! Is forex the right investment vehicle for you?

The grid is bidirectional. I probably would not trade on GBPJPY w/ real money. I am just trying it on every pair to learn how it works. I'll keep experimenting. Thanks.