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Thank you very much for your compliment and your endorsement.
There are plenty of excelent threads related to ew teaching and learning in tsd (jonnydenver69), moneytec, strategybuilder, forex factory. There is no need for me to open another one nor am I as good of mentor as others.
The problem/trap most beginners will fall to that they need to have immediate results and simple system. Thetrefore, naturally they spent all their toime looking for a good and simple entry system rather than spending time with becomming a good trader and learning all required aspects such as psychology, momey management, trade management. Understanding that trading is a serious business is a beginning step. The beginners will never take the conmsistent money form the market for a very simple reason that market is not a charity and does not feed the needy and greedy.
EW will provide a very good overview of the structure of the market and the psychology of the participants. It will not do much for the accurate signals, you will need to develop other techniques but the confidence of the stucture it surely will give.
Since you endorsed Robert Miner, I will include to the link of his book that I uploaded. This is an excelent trading book and does not treat ew as holy grail, it does instead provide the accurate way to have ew as part of your own system. There are other great topics covered as well. So for any of you interested to become traders, that can be holy grail of becomming a consistent trader. No matter what you will follow.
Hi,
Quote:
The problem/trap most beginners will fall to that they need to have immediate results and simple system. Thetrefore, naturally they spent all their toime looking for a good and simple entry system rather than spending time with becomming a good trader and learning all required aspects such as psychology, momey management, trade management. Understanding that trading is a serious business is a beginning step. The beginners will never take the conmsistent money form the market for a very simple reason that market is not a charity and does not feed the needy and greedy.
I couldn't agree most.
Quote:
EW will provide a very good overview of the structure of the market and the psychology of the participants. It will not do much for the accurate signals, you will need to develop other techniques but the confidence of the stucture it surely will give.
I do not agree. If you make a wrong counting, you are dead. If you make a wrong counting and you are not a EW fanatic, you will change your mind as quickly as you see price is doing the opposite of what you thought because of your counting. In that case, EW is another tool as good or as bad as many others. Precther's boys and followers do not change their minds: they are right; market is wrong. Miner's boys and followers do change. For instance, Miner stress that when a "retracement" goes beyond 72% we could see new highs or lows if it is the case. The commentaries-views I posted didn't allow a change of gear: they saw a top, they shorted. They were kicked out. They then kept waiting to sell and lost that gorgeous movement up. Are all EW followers doing the same? I do not think so. They all will be broken already if they did.
About structure: I'm a journalist. As a journalist I went some months ago to a big and well known car maker. As I know the CEO, I asked them to meet with their currency people. Got the OK and went to see them.
I just saw naked charts. I asked them: "Don't you use any TA strategy or system, I only see an EURUSD UBS naked chart here?" They replied: "That's all we need to see and of course we know our NEEDS". 10 minutes afterwards, I saw what they wanted to say with that: they sold millions of EURUSD and price went down 38 pips and that day the pair closed 74 pips below the level they sold it.
Of course they did not make the pair go down those 74 pips alone. But they ignited the move or I think they did.
Their NEEDS were to have EURO cheaper or they did not want eurusd break certain levels or they were protecting their options or whatsoever.
So, to the point, trading is a matter of probabilities. Any big shark can smash your EW thoughts or TA indicators in 5 seconds. Therefore, I tend to say: the less, the better. That means I only trade what I see and I do not enter the market with a pre-thought (I'm a short time trader). If I see a pair, cable for instance, that has gone up 1,012 pips in 10 days, I think: "damn, damn, damn, it is going to retrace. It is dangerous to buy up here. I must be very careful; but I will buy it if I see it going up and up and up specially if we have news and if CatFX50 allows me to do so. That is, if it gives me a affordable stop loss.
Please, don't see in what I say I'm better or I know better or I can do better than EW followers. You and me all we want is to make money in this business. As we can choose (thanks God) what we think it is better for our NEEDS, we do it.
that was a good response. It puts us at least on the grounds of some further discussions.
Here is the issues as you relate them to EW. You have labels such as Miner people, Prechter, Neely etc.. Then you specify what their followers do. Those are your assumptions in both cases. And I am referring to traders not the followers as you call them. Because any followers are not traders and they will loose money eventually as we have already estanlished. The traders however use EW to define the scope and the structure layout. Those are never strictly based on the counts but the nature of the wave. Here is an example the thrust move occurs and you do not have the count but you know that it has to be wave 3 or C or you could treat them like that. Knowing that gives you an idea what the layout of that move is, i.e. people will start taking profit and the continuation of this move will take place or will get into consolidation. Did it give you the signal? No But it gave characterestics.
Of course you would say what happens with this wave 3 move that I would have missed based on what you called misscounts. My answer is as I stated before the counts are not always obvious and you trade your setups. So the fact that I could not have the counts or something proves those counts wrong actually provides me an advantage to trade my setup. But what is significant is that each of the move has a measured tp and sl to some degree and not just an entry signal. That what is significant. Most people are mistaken the success of trading with being at the ight side of the trade. That is totally wrong. The best traders have very low success ratios, they just know how to manage their trades.
As far as your example with car dealer, I do not consider those people as professional traders. They trade with someone's else momey. As you look at their results you will not see that institutional traders have high growth of their portfolios. Yes, anyone can make an impact on the current price at a given moment. It proves nothing. You just have to analyze the market and be confident in what you see. EW does that toa certain degree if you know how to. Let's put it this way if one spots the weakness in the market as we see it now with usd that weakness will not dissapear by itself on its own no matter how many institutional orders will attmpt to bring the dollar up. Why? Because that waht the market layout is at this stage. There are 550 Trillion Dollars caarry over orders in the books, most of them I am sure are not winning ones.
This business is not about duplicating what car dealers, manafactures, Goldam Socks and others use but use your own tools to saty profitable. One could use your system and as long as they know it well to manage money and will not tweak every time they would get in the loosing streak they might manage to become profitable.
The problem is the market always goes thru a simple cycles, accumilation, distibution, shakeouts, tests, retests. If you do not know how to read them you will have to learn how to become a mechanical trader and be consistent with it. I personally do not believe in psychology of making it with mechanical systems. Therefore, I know people need some road map to read the market better. Does it gurantee that you be at the right side of the market all the time? Of course not. But it will put the ods on your site.
BTW I never heard anyone saying that the market was wrong and their counts were correct. It probably helps not to read those interpretations.
It surely appears that you never got a good view of what ew is and what it can do but you continue to read the signal sites and other poor sources and keep generalizing and misquoting it. Believe me there is no competition between ew traders and your system. If you feel your system does produce the results, trade it. Can ew help people who trade with your system? Yes. Is it easy to pick up? No, it takes time. Can one be a sucessfull trader without ew? Yes. Price is the last thing to change. If you know how to read the volume and momentum, you will be at good place most of the time. EW just porvides a template to make it more consistent.
Best of Luck to you and your followers whatever you decide to use. Hope my interference in your thread was usefull.
that was a good response. It puts us at least on the grounds of some further discussions.
Here is the issues as you relate them to EW. You have labels such as Miner people, Prechter, Neely etc.. Then you specify what their followers do. Those are your assumptions in both cases. And I am referring to traders not the followers as you call them. Because any followers are not traders and they will loose money eventually as we have already estanlished. The traders however use EW to define the scope and the structure layout. Those are never strictly based on the counts but the nature of the wave. Here is an example the thrust move occurs and you do not have the count but you know that it has to be wave 3 or C or you could treat them like that. Knowing that gives you an idea what the layout of that move is, i.e. people will start taking profit and the continuation of this move will take place or will get into consolidation. Did it give you the signal? No But it gave characterestics.
Of course you would say what happens with this wave 3 move that I would have missed based on what you called misscounts. My answer is as I stated before the counts are not always obvious and you trade your setups. So the fact that I could not have the counts or something proves those counts wrong actually provides me an advantage to trade my setup. But what is significant is that each of the move has a measured tp and sl to some degree and not just an entry signal. That what is significant. Most people are mistaken the success of trading with being at the ight side of the trade. That is totally wrong. The best traders have very low success ratios, they just know how to manage their trades.
As far as your example with car dealer, I do not consider those people as professional traders. They trade with someone's else momey. As you look at their results you will not see that institutional traders have high growth of their portfolios. Yes, anyone can make an impact on the current price at a given moment. It proves nothing. You just have to analyze the market and be confident in what you see. EW does that toa certain degree if you know how to. Let's put it this way if one spots the weakness in the market as we see it now with usd that weakness will not dissapear by itself on its own no matter how many institutional orders will attmpt to bring the dollar up. Why? Because that waht the market layout is at this stage. There are 550 Trillion Dollars caarry over orders in the books, most of them I am sure are not winning ones.
This business is not about duplicating what car dealers, manafactures, Goldam Socks and others use but use your own tools to saty profitable. One could use your system and as long as they know it well to manage money and will not tweak every time they would get in the loosing streak they might manage to become profitable.
The problem is the market always goes thru a simple cycles, accumilation, distibution, shakeouts, tests, retests. If you do not know how to read them you will have to learn how to become a mechanical trader and be consistent with it. I personally do not believe in psychology of making it with mechanical systems. Therefore, I know people need some road map to read the market better. Does it gurantee that you be at the right side of the market all the time? Of course not. But it will put the ods on your site.
BTW I never heard anyone saying that the market was wrong and their counts were correct. It probably helps not to read those interpretations.
It surely appears that you never got a good view of what ew is and what it can do but you continue to read the signal sites and other poor sources and keep generalizing and misquoting it. Believe me there is no competition between ew traders and your system. If you feel your system does produce the results, trade it. Can ew help people who trade with your system? Yes. Is it easy to pick up? No, it takes time. Can one be a sucessfull trader without ew? Yes. Price is the last thing to change. If you know how to read the volume and momentum, you will be at good place most of the time. EW just porvides a template to make it more consistent.
Best of Luck to you and your followers whatever you decide to use. Hope my interference in your thread was usefull.
Thank you for an excelent post! I doubt that most of the people were able to comprehend it. This thread follower believe in the simplicty. But the simplicty only comes after hard work. Trading is easy, making it easy is tough. A good friend of mine's daughter is rated 3rd in a state of New Jersey in tenis. I asked him recently about the challenge of progressing from number 4 to being nationally ranked. His response was quite interesting. The talent in tenis can get you way above the competition but at the end you will have to put in a lot of work practicing your shots over and over again. So first you learn the techniques and then thru repetition you train your brain to respond automatically
The same thing in trading. Learning any system is simple. Making it your own is difficult.
Thanks again, mainpip
Nina,
I was wondering why you deleted my post. I did not state anything inappropriatry, I did not use any false language. But you seem not to have any problems with the verbal abuse comming from deepdrunk. I am not planning to participate in your thread but what you did is wrong.
I was wondering why you deleted my post. I did not state anything inappropriatry, I did not use any false language. But you seem not to have any problems with the verbal abuse comming from deepdrunk. I am not planning to participate in your thread but what you did is wrong.
I did not delete any of your posts.
__________________ Nina
We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct.
The only guy who can delete posts is newdigital I think.
Nobody of us have admin privileges.
I would like to add something, now that posts a lowering in rage and/or anger.
Many theories like EW or Dow was made near 70/100 years ago.
You can find a lot of explanations and dis/agreements about if them are applicable today.
However in my little experience I just can say: These theories had made thinking in stocks market. Leverage 1:1, 2:1.
When I see a weekly or monthly chart of any cross (gbpusd, eurusd) I can detect the primary trend, the secondary, etc.
Meanwhile hourly or dailies charts are more confusing.
We are here, 100 years later in a much faster world. High speed communications and the need (of course) of doing money fast.
I mean, 60 years ago, somebody could wait 6 years to be profitable with one trade.
The problem is how to sustain your account 66 months leveraged 50:1 paying three time interest than in 1920īs.
I only see a time problem, a different world problem, humankind desperations problem. More than a theory problem.
In fact, if you had bought euros at 0.86 ( together with warren buffet) in 2000 or cable at 1.40 in 2001, today you will be drinking coffee with Soros.
But, off course, you donīt have time and money to do that, you have to choose shorter time frames. Well, maybe someone have it.
In a m30 I have to trade with cat because itīs impossible (for me) see a clear wave count.
The first rule of Dow a followers is: you canīt manipulate the primary trend. Of course, you canīt see the primary in daily chart for the cable. And, you canīt go against the primary, just wait for the pullbacks to buy sell again.
And, maybe the pullback is about 3500 pips.
So, I believe itīs too hard to support a 3500 pips losing position if youīre 50:1 leveraged.
Same problem with the EW. If youīre using weeklies to have a clear view of market action, in forex, sometimes you have to fight with a trade with -2000 pips, to see, in the next 36 months, how the price starts to go up/down like you predicted.
What happened in the middle: youīve suffered a nervous collapse.
By the end.
Buffet started to buy stocks in earlies 1970īs. They don't make their fortune in 2 years.
Why only Buffet could do that and not a huge amount of people? focus, patience, an discipline.
Using EW or CAT you need these 3 gifts.
Just my 2 cents.
PD: I would like to extend the post because some things can be explained a bit more but I feel tired.
What Main Is Saying Is Price Action Is Leading Indicator Just Look For The Patterns Within The Waves Thats All Trading Is Is Pattern Recognition Good Post For A Change. Its Not About Counting waves
Linear Mode
