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Yeah Ricx, you can say that again! The odd thing is that the market doesn't always react the same, to the same news. The USA just reported higher inflation numbers than anticipated, quite higher. So the reasoning goes that another Fed interest rate increase is then good for the US dollar...right?
So what happens next? EUR/USD goes way up to find a new level! Why didn't the idea of another Fed. interest rate hike power the USD, like it's done before? I think the smart money knows this is the last hurray this year for the US dollar, and that another rate hike will get the US into an "iffy" position with the economy, could even be the last blow that will send the US into a recession.
Unless something drastic happens in Europe, I don't see the USD making a sustained recovery any time this year.
moneyline
Here what i have in mind before i post those:
1.The Market Sides (bull and bear side's)
Therese 2 side opposed with the news. In common sense if interpreting higher inflation number is good for US then you are at the A side, and me is the B side which is believe that higher inflation number can lead to interest rate hike in this manner rate hike isnt good anymore for US since economy slowing down so like the news saids before US is facing 2 headed monster (money.cnn.com).
The A side will bring power to bear candle
The B side will bring power to bull candle
at the first data release (30min chart) bear candle is developing to its low then tackled back to its high then its turns over to the low again (this is the CatFX50 indicator showing its signal to sell at 1.2539) after 30min passed by 2 big player comes in, Swiss big player and Central Bank comes into pit with their long on e/u (news.efxnow.com) brings e/u to its high at a blink of an eye.
and... then brings it to it high...
i just wondering if i could have better understanding and closer to the market what it thinks... i could dance with that 100 pips ( ±50 pips down after the news then catch ±80 pips up after the big players comes in)
i dont know what other factor (besides technical) makes this high there must be a reason for it goes this high even a spike has it reason to move. i believe so because nothing in FOREX moves by it self.
Only my thoughts,
Ricx
PS: im still young and vulnerable trader. only young thoughts finding it reason for something moves.
Here what i have in mind before i post those:
1.The Market Sides (bull and bear side's)
Therese 2 side opposed with the news. In common sense if interpreting higher inflation number is good for US then you are at the A side, and me is the B side which is believe that higher inflation number can lead to interest rate hike in this manner rate hike isnt good anymore for US since economy slowing down so like the news saids before US is facing 2 headed monster (money.cnn.com).
The A side will bring power to bear candle
The B side will bring power to bull candle
at the first data release (30min chart) bear candle is developing to its low then tackled back to its high then its turns over to the low again (this is the CatFX50 indicator showing its signal to sell at 1.2539) after 30min passed by 2 big player comes in, Swiss big player and Central Bank comes into pit with their long on e/u (news.efxnow.com) brings e/u to its high at a blink of an eye.
and... then brings it to it high...
i just wondering if i could have better understanding and closer to the market what it thinks... i could dance with that 100 pips ( ±50 pips down after the news then catch ±80 pips up after the big players comes in)
i dont know what other factor (besides technical) makes this high there must be a reason for it goes this high even a spike has it reason to move. i believe so because nothing in FOREX moves by it self.
Only my thoughts,
Ricx
PS: im still young and vulnerable trader. only young thoughts finding it reason for something moves.
Hi!
Well said, Ricx. But you know what I like most?
That 1.2539 on eurusd that our system said: DO NOT GO!!!!!
EURUSD has been making lows at 1.2529. We first have this optional rule that says: more than 20 pips from EMA50, the trade is riskier. But then we have common sense: it made a spike and suspiciously it stopped 10 pips above the low!!!
-------------
Level 4 Rules:
Level 4 is when price, after a consolidation of a few bars, breaks through the last high or low. The main thing we need is an indication of strength, and if we don't get it, it could be a trap!
Obviously, the breakout down should have Hist_StepMa_Stoch in red and green for the opposite.
Something to take into account:
Pairs to trade: EURUSD, USDCHF and GBPUSD.
When bar opens more than 20 pips above/below EMA 50, the signal is riskier.
-------------
Level 4 Short Entry:
1. Hist confirm (yes)
2. Nina confirm (yes)
3. Bar Opens ≥ 20 pips below EMA50 (?)
4. Strength Indications (?)
5. Short Breakouts (?)
I have questions about number 3, 4 and 5,
3. Bar Opens ≥ 20 pips below EMA50,
from picture above, the candle open price is 8 pips below the EMA50, and the candle close price is 29 pips below the EMA50, so which will be determined as open ("When bar opens more than 20 pips above/below EMA 50") the Open price or the Close price?
4. Strength Indications,
How to look the current strength? is there indicator for it?
5. Short Breakouts
1.2529 for breakouts how to determine this, is it the yesterday low? or its the support1 ?(support1 from FIBOPIV_v2)
Signal is riskier, still according to system, beside that I use Stepchoppy as indicator as well, and sometimes all 3 indicators met with 1 bar delay after break of ema, so sometimes i open close of the bar which was 1,2539 for 15:00cet. I did backtest system for last 8 monthes this way (opening even if price is higher then 20 pips and even if i open on second bar after break if all 3 indicators met (stepma_hist, nina and stepchoppy). It did save alot of times from false breaks.
But it was backtest, im testing it live (on demo account for now obviously) only for 2 weeks.
So any your comments are welcome and highly needed,
Thank you, Nina.
The question regards level 4 was very actual, do we take low from previous us session or morning's european session (Hans indicator) ? And do we buy/sell on level 4 break after stepma hist shows strong signal only after the close of that bar right ? so actually we didnt have level 4 signal today on break lower ? the price broke low first (setting new low) but 30m bar wasnt closed, and only after bar closed, we can look at stepma, it showed red and yes we broke previous low (but only by few pips ). I'm also unsure regards how we exit from level 4 position? when red/green stepma dies (does below 0.04 or above -0.04) ?
--Fet0r
Quote:
Originally Posted by nina
Fet0r, I knew you were going to say that.
Can you tell me where EMA50 was when you had the signal? How many pips where there between the entry and EMA50?
Hi Nina,
Ok, thanks for telling me to go master the system. I was able to identify that your EUR trade was a Level 4 signal. But i still dont know the reason behind the GBP trade. You say u took that trade based on strength , how is that measured ? RSI? Or does one of our existing indicators show something that can determine strength of the move.
Thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by nina
Hi!
I did not sell EURUSD because at 14:30 bar was not possible and at 15:00 bar was more than 20 pips away from EMA50. I was ready to short it though if it would have broken 1.2529 (level 4 sell).
I bought it at 1.2605, last high and I closed it at 1.2630.
I bought cable at 1.8396 when I saw bar of hist was green and with strength.
I closed it at 1.8468.
I did not do the same with EURUSD cause it was more fastened to USDCHF and I had already taken a long on cable in a very dangerous environment.
Why did not do the same on eurusd and GBPUSD on its way down when we all see how red bar was getting longer?
Well, I sold them, but as what I did it has anything to do with catFX50, I do not want to post it.
I agree that the euro short signal was not strong, but what about the gbp short, that was as good signal as any, 22 pips from ema50, closed just below pivot point, good momentum, I think it is a valid short signal, even though it s 22 pips, only 2 pips above filter.
Now, there is an absolute clear long @ 1.2610 (i like to add the spread when talking of longs), you got 35 pips there.
Another clear long is gbp @ 1.8460, a level 4 too, prev high of the day and a heavy resistance from past days, also got 30+pips (you even had a retest there and a bounce for another 30).
Now both shorts after the news were ok to trade in my opinion, since they were coincident with the expected outcome of the news, without doing too much analysis, you could have waited for a break of 1.2525 on euro to confirm the dolar rally. I personally took the gbp short, not the euro.
Bottom line is, although it might have gave loosing signals, that s part of the game, prev to that you had 2 other level 1 longs with great results, so I just would recommend to stick to it, trade the signals with it s filters, take partial profits if you want to ride it longer, and enjoy the profits, with a +80% of positive outcome, you should not be worried about a couple of loosers, it is part of the game, and remember that a looser is just a possible big winner, only after the fact we know it s a looser.