Hi!

Just reading:

"The Role of Gut Instinct By Mark Henricks

When Mike McMahon was undergoing Army parachute training, on one jump his chute failed to open. Looking up, he saw the main canopy had tangled. “There was no way in God’s green earth I could have attacked that from an intellectual point of view,” recalls McMahon, now director of education for Online Trading Academy. Without thinking, he reached up and jerked the lines, which turned out to be the right move. The chute opened at an altitude of a hundred feet and McMahon landed safely.

Every day traders make decisions that are similarly important to the health of their trading accounts. But can they also rely on gut instinct to help them choose the right course of action? A recent study in the journal Science suggests that leaving a decision up to the unconscious mind can lead to better results than consciously poring over information and analyzing options. The Dutch researchers said simple decisions such as shopping for oven mitts benefited from careful conscious thought. Complex judgments such as selecting a new car, however, were better left up to the unconscious. The researchers evaluated the quality of decisions by measuring decision makers’ satisfaction with their choices.

This “deliberation-without-attention” hypothesis has tantalizing implications for active traders. The tide of market information traders are constantly exposed to makes it difficult if not impossible to ever completely and consciously account for all available information in making a trading decision. Coupled with the speed with which many decisions have to be made, it seems probable that conscious deliberation can’t do it all alone.

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Some experienced traders, however, bristle at the idea that gut instinct is a central skill or even a useful adjunct to active trading. Surprisingly, McMahon is one of them, at least when it comes to relying on gut instinct alone. “To go long on gold based on a feeling, not whether you know anything the market, that to me would be a gut instinct and would be very poor trading,” he says.

On the other hand, McMahon says that when training and experience give a trader sufficient skill, the result can appear to be instinctive. What’s actually going on, he says, is that a trader is absorbing and analyzing the relevant information flows in a logical manner. It’s just happening so fast and with so little apparent effort that it seems like intuition or instinct at work. “At what point do you become so fast that it doesn’t become a step-by-step process and becomes gut instinct?” he wonders.

Robert Deel also assigns pure gut instinct a limited role. “I’ve never in my life experienced somebody who just walked in, turned on the computer and said, ‘I have a gut reaction. I’ll sell this and buy that,’ and lasted more than 15 minutes. That just doesn’t happen,” says the CEO of TradingSchool.com.

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Like McMahon, Deel believes traders can develop what may appear to be gut instinct -- although it’s actually more like a well-trained reflex. Deel teaches students to quickly recognize specific trading situations by using flash cards, exposing them for a second or less and asking students to identify the promising setups. Hypnosis and biofeedback also play roles in relaxing and focusing students to encourage a near-instinctive reaction time. But all require lots of practice, he stresses. “There’s no shortcut to developing skill and experience,” Deel says. “That takes time.”

Gut instinct plays a vital part — but only a part — of the trading method of Tom Busby, founder and CEO of DTITrader.com. Busby says he won’t make a move unless an “inner voice” is telling him to do it, but he also won’t follow the inner voice unless the data he’s seeing support the move. “I make the market match the gut instinct,” Busby explains. “For example, if I think inside that the market ought to be going higher, I want to see the numbers telling me the same thing. It’s the outward reflection of that inner thought. That works great.”

Mark Henricks is not affiliated with CyberTrader or Charles Schwab & Co., Inc."

Hi, again!

Please, be very careful today with NFP. We can see very disappointing things.
If you are done for the week, do not trade or just do it with few money.
If you see a big, big rush, go, but try to protect.

I do not know, I may be damn wrong and paranoid, but there is something in the air that does not smell good.

Nina

Hi!!

Well, mates. No trap at all and very nice pips. I'll make the recap later on.

Today has been another gorgeous day so far.

Nina

Hi Mibl,

I deleted anina.mq4, anina.ex4, and a lot of indicators that I no longer look at. I downloaded the version from post 3317 (that was the version I had) and compiled it and I still get the exact same results. My setings are: 10, 1.0, 0, 9000, 0, 50 and I have over 10,000 bars in the chart. I am attaching charts of longer term 30m so you can see where the crosses are and the differences between euro and chf. The data looks okay. I don't know the math inside the indicator but it seems like it made a wrong calculation and has stuck with it. Just guessing though. I may need to delete the historical data file and reload it. I appreciate your help on this.

frayed

Attached Images

	usdchf_m30.gif (32.0 KB, 183 views)
	eurusd_m30.gif (34.7 KB, 174 views)

Hi, I think I have a problem with the USD/CHF pair the last arrow (red) on my charts where April 17,2006, all STEP MA's seem to stand still, anybody help please.

THX

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usdchf30min.gif (33.1 KB, 164 views)

Hi!

Just a reminder:

Post 3479 (05-03-06):

Levels to watch:

EURUSD, while above 1.2586-1.2551, its way is 1.2885.

USDCHF, while below 1.2460-1.2495, its way is 1.2161.

GBPUSD, while above 1.8342-1.8295, its way is 1.8630.

The others are on the way as long as levels of support or resistance keep .

Nina

Hi!

A few days ago, I post Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts. I stressed the importance of the daily cross of EMA50 with EMA200.

On chart you have EMA120 though, but EMA50 and EMA200 have crossed today.

Look at the bearish trendline from the top: it has broken.

Whatever can happen here, this is FOREX, but TA says the pair is bullish. We should have a retrace in order to visit the highs again.

Nina

Attached Images

	Cable Daily.jpg (155.9 KB, 266 views)
	Cable Weekly.jpg (135.6 KB, 218 views)
	Cable Monthly.jpg (122.5 KB, 177 views)

Hi guys,

great thread, I wish i have discovered it earlier .

Could anobody tell me how to access 'download' area?

I tried 2 versions of Shi_channel Indicator from this thread but they dont work for some reason. Anybody has got a good one?

Thanks

euro-pean

Greetings

I am thrilled to have found this thread -- thanks a million for your hard work - and for so freely sharing the fruits of it !!

I am presently demo-ing with MetaTrader waiting for FXDD to hook up MT4 -- while I have my live account with VT. Has anyone programmed the Nina set of indicators for VT ? Would be tremendous if possible

Thanks -- and have a GREAT weekend all ---

Gracias Nina por todo !!

Kiwigold

Hi!

Today's Recap:

EURUSD, level 4 buy at 1.2706 or 1.2715 or 1.2723. Made a high at 1.2765.
+ 59 or + 50 or + 42.

USDCHF, level 1 buy (10:30cet) at 1.2310. Made a high at 1.2316. Lost of 34 pips. (I know, I know we had pivot 1t 1.2316 and it was topping aqll morning there, but signals are signals.)

USDCHF, level 4 sell (14:30cet) at 1.2287 or at 1.2266 orat 1.2242. Made a low at 1.2213. + 74 or + 53 or + 29.

GBPUSD, level 1 sell (11:30cet) at 1.8481. Made a low at 1.8478. Lost of 34 pips. I know too that we had pivot at 1.8471.

GBPUSD, level 4 buy (14:30cet) at 1.8516 or at 1.8549. Made a high at 1.8622. + 106 or + 73.

Lets take the lowest of all options:

TOTAL= + 76 pips.

Nina