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  #1411 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 10:27 AM
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blooms is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by mibl
Hi blooms,

thanks for these indicators.

Relating to CatFX50: Please do not forget, CatFx may be an easy system from the point of view of "automatic" rules, but Nina always reminds to the fact, that the human thinking should not be turned of - which should mean that you always must consider the actual setup around the signal to reduce risk and so reduce possible drawdown (are there opositional trendlines, is the entry shortly before a pivot point, ....?). An autom. system will not can do this in a full manner.
So as I understood, it is no system for pure automatic trading. Perhaps if you make a backtesting on the automatic rules, you will get a positive result.
(But think at, that the results on the "paper" are never the results of the system, because of sometimes you do not get the price because of the bar is moving to fast after the signal, ... - you didn't entered because of news time at this bar, ....)

All traders I know are successful because of their knowledge of the market and do not only follow trading signales of their system.

If it would be so easy to gain money at the exchange/forex markets, I would have built a "trading machine" which is producing money for me and my friends. So I could concentrate on trading only for fun.
I am sorry, I do not have one, but if I am wrong and you find one - will you inform me please? Thanks.

best wishes
mibl
The problem is that even with Nina system, the back testing still didn't show any good.

Here is one simple model of the Nina EA system and the typical profit graph.
Attached Images
File Type: gif GBPUSD1.gif (6.8 KB, 270 views)
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 Nina_Expert2.mq4 (10.7 KB, 124 views)
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  #1412 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 10:41 AM
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Another Nina EA system with change of StepMA_stoch as exit.
Attached Images
File Type: gif GBPUSD2.gif (5.0 KB, 225 views)
Attached Files
File Type: mq4 Nina_Expert3.mq4 (10.7 KB, 142 views)
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  #1413 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 10:50 AM
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other graphs. None of them seems profitable. The commission fees seem to have defeated them.
Attached Images
File Type: gif EURUSD1.gif (5.0 KB, 150 views)
File Type: gif USDJPY2.gif (5.1 KB, 132 views)
File Type: gif GBPUSD3.gif (4.5 KB, 130 views)
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  #1414 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mibl
Hi Marbo

I took this short in EURUSD based on
- price closing below
- StepMa_Stoch is short yet
- IND Inverse crosses downwards

But it is a more riskier (level 2). What is not so good indication at the moment is that the USDGBP is not in short mode and stays above his trendline. See attached chart.

mibl
So, came back from early lunch and see that EURUSD trade was closed at target profit (@70). Actually I suppose 3 steps to exit. First portion at Fibo-Supp 1, second shortly before Fibo-Supp 2 and third shortly before Fibo-Supp 3.
But because of going to lunch, second step didn't take place and with luck the rest hit the target profit before Fibo-Supp 3.
Nevertheless the USDJPY trade is running, but here it could be possible that the long indication will not hold on and the trade must be close with a loss.
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  #1415 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 11:48 AM
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mibl good morning,

could you explain your risk reward a little with your stoploss? you mention you make exits in 3 parts, what happens if the trade losses? is that i used to take 3 lots and scale in 3 places but when the stoploss is hit , sometimes by scaling you dont manage to get what a loss gives you multiplied by 3.
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  #1416 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 12:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blooms
The problem is that even with Nina system, the back testing still didn't show any good.

Here is one simple model of the Nina EA system and the typical profit graph.
I had a short look on your Nina Expert 2. --> What I understand is the following (I am sure that I do not cover the whole EA-functionality):
  • You work with a trailing stop and target profit of 34 pips. That means a c/r-rate less than 1:1 (spread, slipage). So the only profit factor can be the count of profitable trades.
  • Your EA only trades when the crosses nearly are at the same time. All other signals would not be traded (so I read the code)
  • Your stop technik is based on trailing stop. So I understand the code you can loose trades which could be meanwhile clear in the profit area but do not reach the 34 pips yet. Am I right?
F.e. at the moment I use another exit strategy (not as an EA, on a manual way):
3 or 4 exit points based on fibo-pivots.
I close the first portion when fibo 1 is reached and trail the initial stop to entry. The next steps are the same way. The last (4th) I let run until a trailing stop catches it.

mibl
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  #1417 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmac
mibl good morning,

could you explain your risk reward a little with your stoploss? you mention you make exits in 3 parts, what happens if the trade losses? is that i used to take 3 lots and scale in 3 places but when the stoploss is hit , sometimes by scaling you dont manage to get what a loss gives you multiplied by 3.
See my previous posting.
Additionally: My initial stop depends on the chart setup. (lows/highs, last candles formations, trendlines, ...). It is not allways 34 pips, I think that isn't necessary for all setups.

You are right: The 3 or 4 steps means that in the drwadown-case you loose the whole 3 or 4 portions. Than only makes sense when your profitable trade count is a lot more and your absolute profit per trade is bigger. At the moment this is 5 winners to 2 loosers and one already running trade.
But during times where the variation of the market is small the fibos are narrow to the ema, so better the time where the variation is higher.

But be careful - I am indeed experienced in trading for years, but my experience with CatFX is only based on 7 real (small) money test trades the last days and 3 weeks following the system on the charts without real trading. At the moment I test the system in real live trading, but only with a small lot-size and up to now it is profitable.

mibl
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  #1418 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 12:44 PM
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Let's say we have a situation like in USDCHF this morning.
The 9:00 CET candle opens above EMA and creates a signal. StepMA stoch did not validate the signal yet. Then the 9:30 candle recrosses the EMA to the downside again, still no validation from StepMA Stoch. The 10:00 CET candle finally crosses the EMA to the upside again and we get the validation from StepMA.
What would we do then? Probably still trade it but consider it more risky?
Because of the hesitation to cross the EMA.
Can this nullify the signal?
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  #1419 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eric79
Let's say we have a situation like in USDCHF this morning.
The 9:00 CET candle opens above EMA and creates a signal. StepMA stoch did not validate the signal yet. Then the 9:30 candle recrosses the EMA to the downside again, still no validation from StepMA Stoch. The 10:00 CET candle finally crosses the EMA to the upside again and we get the validation from StepMA.
What would we do then? Probably still trade it but consider it more risky?
Because of the hesitation to cross the EMA.
Can this nullify the signal?
I missed that signal because there was no validation from StepMA_Stoch at this time and no clear movement of IndInverse - so it wasn't clear until the bis move was in progress.
At my chart there was no crossing of StepMA_Stoch before the 11:00 (cet) bar built up?
But it's a pity - the movement would have been very profitable...
Attached Images
File Type: jpg hc_083.jpg (69.7 KB, 249 views)
__________________
Never trade with money which you need to make a living *** I trade with my money based on my decisions *** Please decide for yourself.

Last edited by mibl; 02-22-2006 at 01:17 PM.
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  #1420 (permalink)  
Old 02-22-2006, 01:30 PM
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concerning the cable today at 830 gmt there was a clear break of rma 50 BUT nina step ma stoc did not cross it crosses after next candle but its 35 pips away meanwhile the original step stoc and step rsi and ind all crossed at same time as price did this step ma stoc to erradic for my taste

Last edited by harold4x; 02-22-2006 at 01:47 PM.
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