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A litlle trick that could help you with your problem:
the average daily range over the last 5 days on eur/usd 90, on usd/chf 98 and on gbp/usd 128. the average daily range over the last 20 days on eur/usd 115, usd/chf 128 and on gbp/usd 173. So that makes that the average daily range on the short term, is nearly 1/3 less. Stand on the sideline till you see that the average daily range over the last 3 days is bigger then the average daily range over the last 20 days. You wan't die of not trading for a few days. You will think that you will not make any money, but you deffently will not lose any money (wich is more lickely in narrow ranges). It takes also discipline NOT to trade. regards...iGoR Last edited by iGoR : 06-16-2006 at 06:48 PM. |
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Moneyline,
I appreciate your concern, but I want to try this and see how I do. all strategies have false signals, this one included. the 30 minute time frame is ideal but I have felt that there aren't enough signals from it. I will just see what the chances are statistically trying to trade on this time frame. people can judge for themselves. I would love to see the success or failure of others on this time frame as well. |
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I see your viewpoint and I know how you feel. There's much waiting sometimes for the 50 EMA cross and all the other indicators to line up in CatFX50. However, you are usually rewarded for the long wait. As far as looking for more signals to trade: There are plenty of methods and systems offered right here at Forex TSD. Even more, the wealth of recorded forward testing results boggles the mind! Believe me, you can find something to suit your taste. I'm a very new wannabe Forex trader and I'm glad I found this forum. Rather than go about testing new ideas myself, I depend on traders with much more experience than what I have. I'd rather stand on their shoulders and be guided by them because I'm well aware of my limitations as a newbie trader. Take a look around and see if there's any other method or system that suits your fancy, in addition to CatFX50. moneyline |
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As a professional trader now for 9 years I can only give you this advice: on 5 min. charts you will see that "more is less". A very important rule in profitable trading is your avg. profit/ trade. It is something that many people overlook or forget. When nina started his topic he daily posted the potential profits that were possible to make. On some days he came up with 800 possible pips to take. If you would have told him then that you are willing to lett him in, in a system that can make a daily 20pips profit he probably would have laughed you away. After trading this system now for many months he knows that his average profit per trade is A LOTT lower then he at first expected to make. I remember him making calculations at the end of the week and coming up with thousands of pips and he was concluding that it would absolutly not be a problem to make 10% of that. Over the last week he was comming to the point that he wanted to bend the rules or not following them for 100%. Absolutly no offence to him, because this is a human thing and it proofs that discipline is a very difficult aspect in trading. But it also proofs that the expectations he had are not there. Aspecially in the kind of markets we are in for the moment. If you would ask him now about this daily 20pip system, I'm shure he would emmidiatly sign in because now he knows how much his average profit per trade is ( a lott lower then expected--and shurly a lott lower then the theorecticall dialy potentials). So the average profit per trade on 30min. is a lott lower then expected. This brings us to a 5min. chart. You will see that the the average profit per trade gets so low that the trading costs + slipage, will eat all of your profits. You will see that now and then a 100pip profit is possible. But you will notice also that a 5 consecutive losers with each 20pips loss is also possible wich will bring you back to zero. Even worse the trading cost on these 5 trades bring you in loss. If you go back in history with your system and calculate what your profits would be based on the closing price of a bar you will end up for ex. with 30pips profit. But if you will count your trades you will see that you did this with 15 trades. Wich will give you again a loss at the end of the day. If you would take very small stoplosses you will see that you hitrate is so low (less then 30%) it is mentally impossible to follow that system. Or you take a bigger stoploss to get a higher hitrate but then you will see that an average 15-20pips loss is normall. If you have then 5 losers in 1 day you will look to a loss between 75 and 100pips. Then you will start to think to get less trades. That you can do by implementing bigger filters or values or parameters for you indicators. They will become so big that, what you will do on the 5min time frame is actually the same as one would trade on a 30min time frame. But as I said, all of this looking with your own eyes to all of this happening, is a very good learning process in what is possible and what is not. Best of luck and friendly regards...iGoR PS. If you would look here on this forum or on the strategybuilderFx forum you will not find any mecanical system that is profitable over a longer period of time (at least 6 months) on 5min time frames. All of the systems that are profitable over a longer periods of time are on the higher time frames. It is not because people did not think of it. 1000's of people before you did. Last edited by iGoR : 06-17-2006 at 09:34 AM. |
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Hi, Igor,
Thank you for you polite comments. Quote:
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You are right, market lately is a nasty one. Quote:
I do not believe on 5M TF. But if there are people that want to make a try, let them go ahead. Nina |
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.That is why we are all here ,in this forum.BTW my dog's name is Bill Gates (not joking) but i did not use that as my nick here i just feel litle strange to call you Nina as i know you are not female... |
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Anyhow, the only point I was trying to get accross is that I would rather look into a method or system that's already been well into development for one particular type of Forex activity. And, no, I don't think CatFX50 is a scalper's tool, it's like trying to squeeze apple juice out of an orange. It's either apple or orange, but it can't be both. There are so many methods and systems here at Forex TSD, we have a virtual horn of plenty to choose from....why in the world go about forcing the square peg into the round hole? moneyline |
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