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Originally Posted by jesseboy
Moneyline,
I appreciate your concern, but I want to try this and see how I do. all strategies have false signals, this one included. the 30 minute time frame is ideal but I have felt that there aren't enough signals from it. I will just see what the chances are statistically trying to trade on this time frame. people can judge for themselves. I would love to see the success or failure of others on this time frame as well.
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It is a very good thing to try to see for yourself what is possible and what is not. It is a important part of your learning process.
As a professional trader now for 9 years I can only give you this advice:
on 5 min. charts you will see that "more is less". A very important rule in profitable trading is your avg. profit/ trade. It is something that many people overlook or forget.
When nina started his topic he daily posted the potential profits that were possible to make. On some days he came up with 800 possible pips to take. If you would have told him then that you are willing to lett him in, in a system that can make a daily 20pips profit he probably would have laughed you away.
After trading this system now for many months he knows that his average profit per trade is A LOTT lower then he at first expected to make. I remember him making calculations at the end of the week and coming up with thousands of pips and he was concluding that it would absolutly not be a problem to make 10% of that.
Over the last week he was comming to the point that he wanted to bend the rules or not following them for 100%. Absolutly no offence to him, because this is a human thing and it proofs that discipline is a very difficult aspect in trading. But it also proofs that the expectations he had are not there. Aspecially in the kind of markets we are in for the moment.
If you would ask him now about this daily 20pip system, I'm shure he would emmidiatly sign in because now he knows how much his average profit per trade is ( a lott lower then expected--and shurly a lott lower then the theorecticall dialy potentials). So the average profit per trade on 30min. is a lott lower then expected.
This brings us to a 5min. chart. You will see that the the average profit per trade gets so low that the trading costs + slipage, will eat all of your profits. You will see that now and then a 100pip profit is possible. But you will notice also that a 5 consecutive losers with each 20pips loss is also possible wich will bring you back to zero. Even worse the trading cost on these 5 trades bring you in loss. If you go back in history with your system and calculate what your profits would be based on the closing price of a bar you will end up for ex. with 30pips profit. But if you will count your trades you will see that you did this with 15 trades. Wich will give you again a loss at the end of the day.
If you would take very small stoplosses you will see that you hitrate is so low (less then 30%) it is mentally impossible to follow that system. Or you take a bigger stoploss to get a higher hitrate but then you will see that an average 15-20pips loss is normall. If you have then 5 losers in 1 day you will look to a loss between 75 and 100pips.
Then you will start to think to get less trades. That you can do by implementing bigger filters or values or parameters for you indicators. They will become so big that, what you will do on the 5min time frame is actually the same as one would trade on a 30min time frame.
But as I said, all of this looking with your own eyes to all of this happening, is a very good learning process in what is possible and what is not.
Best of luck and friendly regards...iGoR
PS. If you would look here on this forum or on the strategybuilderFx forum
you will not find any mecanical system that is profitable over a longer period of time (at least 6 months) on 5min time frames. All of the systems that are profitable over a longer periods of time are on the higher time frames. It is not because people did not think of it. 1000's of people before you did.