Daily Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD extends rally during New York
• Flows described as light and disorderly

Overnight Preview

• Look for book-squaring
• USD may have gotten ahead of itself

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core CPI m/m 0.2%
• 8:30am USD CPI m/m 0.3%
• 9:15am USD Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
• 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories

Summary
The USD is higher to end New York after a volatile session after the release of US data. Although the Retail Sales data came in about as expected, upwardly revised data from last month sparked a swift rally in the greenback sending it to the best levels of the day. The USD managed to hold gains against the Yen and Swissy but gave back some gains against EURO and Cable to end the day; traders note that volumes were very patchy on the move and order-flow was sporadic and directionless despite the firm pricing. USD is likely setting up for a rotation lower and the technical picture looks a bit supportive of that view. Cable made a new monthly low at 1.9417 before rotating higher to eventually print 1.9496 for the New York high but well off the European high at 1.9589; traders note the reversal was unexpected after the release of higher than expected UK CPI data this morning. Cable settled around the 1.9450/60 area in quiet trade. EURO fell in sympathy with GBP as cross-spreaders lifted EURO off the post-data lows of 1.5429 and EURO gained the 1.5500 handle again before settling back as flows became confusing after the London Fix. Forex Traders note that EURO appears to have found a near-term bottom and believe support is firm around the 1.5380/1.5400 area. The rate will likely draw some short-covering by late shorts this morning during the next 24 hours so expect a continued grind higher ahead of US data in the morning tomorrow. USD/JPY continued to grind higher all afternoon on light volume; making the high for the day ahead of the close at 104.93 touching the 100 bar MA in the process. Sellers said to have plenty of offers waiting at the 105.00 area and it will be important to see if those offers show up overnight in Japan this evening. Given the recent strength in the Yen this correction higher by the USD is likely to attract sellers and the key is how thick they are at this level. Aggressive traders can look for a short on any further USD strength in my view. Tomorrow is US CPI data and with the recent information tending to support the Fed is not done easing yet, I would expect that a weaker than expected number could ignite a bout of USD long-liquidation in the morning. The market seems prepared for that and recent strength despite weak volumes appears to be an opportunity to sell.

USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 105.80
Resistance 2: 105.50
Resistance 1: 105.00/10
Latest New York: 104.72
Support 1: 104.20/30
Support 2: 104.00
Support 3: 103.80

Comments
Rally back from the Friday lows likely a Head-Fake; double –top has formed and a strong sell signal suggests a potential short is now confirmed at the 105.00/50 area again. Today’s test of the highs stalls on light volume just under the 100 bar MA. Late sell-off significant as longs likely threw in the towel. Stops above 104.30 area drove trade today; they are gone so look for the rate to rotate lower overnight. Rate has broken trend line support and Tuesday’s attempt to score a high over the 104.00 handle may be the test of the trend line break. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; some of which likely happened overnight Tuesday. Continue to expect more volatility. Looking for the rate to briefly follow through higher for a short-covering rally through Tuesday but fall harder into mid week; likely under the 103.00 handle. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -5.2%

USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0610/20
Resistance 2: 1.0580
Resistance 1: 1.0550/60
Latest New York: 1.0524
Support 1: 1.0470/80
Support 2: 1.0410/20
Support 3: 1.0380

Comments
Rally overnight may be expected in sympathy with YEN and/or weaker commodities but upside appears limited. Pullback from 105.00 area gained some credibility as offers appear from big names traders say. Monday’s failure above the 1.0500 handle significant in my view. Likely this rally overnight Tuesday is testing the break-down; be ready to sell. Upside is limited and the volumes aren’t that great so far today again. Be nimble though as a break below 1.0380 likely to draw aggressive selling. Rate continues to attract dip buying; next dip will likely be bought around 1.0250 area again; but last three dips have failed to create significant rally. Failure last week at 1.0550/1.0600 area is setting up a short; look to sell the next rally; around 1.0500/20 I think. Highs above the 1.0500 area may keep the rate two-way action before a move in either direction. Close under the 1.0400 area sets up a loss to 1.0250 near-term.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

NONE

In association with Forex Trading Edge

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

•USD rallies ahead of News, lacks follow-through
•Majors on S/R volumes low
•Sovereign names seen selling USD


Overnight Preview

•A round of book-squaring likely

Looking Ahead to Thursday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 0.1
•8:30am USD Unemployment Claims 370K
•9:00am USD TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 63.6B
•9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate 80.1%
•9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m -0.3%
•9:30am USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
•10:00am USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -19.0
•1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 20
•7:00pm USD Fed Governor Mishkin Speaks

Summary
The USD rallied today after a slow start again in Asia helped by better equities pricing and model/momentum accounts buying; Forex traders note that volumes were not impressive and the majors all held significant S/R. Initially two-way in Asia the Greenback went one-way on stops and aggressive buying near the start of European trade as reserve managers bought USD in the morning only to see the majors reverse after news; the USD sold off on the BOE inflation report but then recovered reversing ahead of US data. Today’s CPI data was softer-than-expected and the USD initially broke lower on the day but held existing overnight ranges. Settling back after the London Fix the USD continued to drift in quieter range-bound action with little news driving any of the pairs. Cable continued to hold the 1.9450 area that has held stops in both directions the past 72 hours; low prints at 1.9361 were bought by cross-spreaders and semi-official names traders say. Upside limited to the 1.9487 high but the rate has solid bids at the 1.9400 handle and slightly above. Traders are looking for the rate to hold the 2008 lows and a solid bounce is expected by the end of the week. EURO no less aggressive to the upside but continues to languish under the 1.5500 handle as traders say offers appear thick on the approach. Highs at 1.5487 were met with Swiss private bank sales some traders report; same names seen on the bid under the 1.5400 handle recently. Traders note sovereign demand in EURO at around the 1.5430 area and also in USD/JPY on the buy side. USD/JPY rallied into stops above the 104.80 area and again at 105.20 area for a high print at 105.46 but the rate is really struggling to hold gains and traders report volumes are light and flows patchy; heavy offers said to be around the 105.50 area and higher suggesting the rate is at or near a top. Swissy also encountering strong resistance under the 1.0600 handle; highs at 1.0601 were more symbolic than anything else. Traders are looking for the USD to pull back from here but the lack of selling interest is a concern for the shorts. In my view, the USD needed to give back some of these gains right away rather than hold firm as it has. Tomorrow is another day of important news so watch for book squaring overnight to temper the USD advance. A long-liquidation break is coming and when it does the Greenback could break sharply very quickly.



USD/JPY

Resistance 3: 106.00
Resistance 2: 105.80
Resistance 1: 105.50
Latest New York: 105.21
Support 1: 104.60
Support 2: 104.20/30
Support 3: 103.80



Comments
Rate makes one more high into resistance generating a strong sell signal. Look for the rate to fall on the news but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; look for close-in stops under the 104.50 area today. Continue to expect more volatility. Looking for the rate to briefly follow through higher for a short-covering rally through Tuesday but fall harder into mid week; likely under the 103.00 handle. Day traders may get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY GDP q/q 0.6%
7:50pm JPY GDP Deflator y/y-1.5%



USD/CHF Daily

Resistance 3: 1.0700
Resistance 2: 1.0650
Resistance 1: 1.0600/10
Latest New York: 1.0552
Support 1: 1.0500/10
Support 2: 1.0450/60
Support 3: 1.0400/10

Comments
Rally overnight may be expected in sympathy with YEN but upside is labored; stalling at the 1.0600 handle significant. No follow-through after news this morning is a signal the top may be in. Pullback needed to confirm strong sell signal generated overnight. Monday’s failure above the 1.0500 handle still significant in my view. Likely this rally overnight is model and momentum accounts on the buy side. Upside is limited and the volumes aren’t that great so far today again. Be nimble though as a break below 1.0380 likely to draw aggressive selling. Rate continues to attract dip buying; next dip will likely be bought around 1.0400 area; but last three dips have failed to create significant rally. Close under the 1.0400 area sets up a loss to 1.0250 near-term.

Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

1:45am CHF Consumer Climate
5:00am CHF SNB Board Member Jordan Speaks

In association with Forex Trading Edge

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

•US data a mixed bag, housing head-fakes everyone
•Stops drive a reversal after early strength
•Majors under support near-term

Overnight Preview

•Look for two-way consolidation on Monday
•More losses for USD coming I think

Looking Ahead to Monday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•10:00am USD Leading Index m/m
Almost no news for Monday anywhere. Trading should be largely technical

Summary
The USD bulls got their horns sawed off today as better-than-expected Housing data sucked the late long into the top for the week. Across all pairs the USD rallied on the news but was unable to score new weekly highs and within an hour of the news the Greenback was under dire pressure and made lows across the board in heavy volume. Reaching technical support after the London Fix the rest of the day was spent in clean-up as the volumes dropped off and the majors went sideways to consolidate their gains. Cable rallied into stops and blasted through several layers of serious offers to post a high print at 1.9601 making a new high for the week on a Friday suggesting the rate will advance early next week. If holding longs look to add on a pullback for an attempt at the 1.9700 area by mid-week. EURO rallied for a new weekly high as well and flushed stops above the 1.5550 area for a high print at 1.5602 and failed to attract serious sellers. Traders note that aggressive offers by sovereign names as well as private Swiss bank selling failed to absorb bids; most order books were wiped clean of offers and it is likely the rate will advance early next week as well. Some analysts suggest that high Oil prices had an effect of firmer EURO but I think that is an attempt to lay blame for late selling. USD/JPY fell through several layers of support exposing large stops in the process. Stops at 104.40 by late longs were enough to make a low print under the 104.10 area exposing stops at 104.00, 103.80 and 103.60; the latter attracting bids but not before a low print at 103.51 washed out the last late long. The pair briefly rallied to regain the 104.00 handle but some of that may be residual short-covering after the early bloodbath. Swissy and Loonie also saw slippage with all major cross falling back as well. In my view, the USD has set-up for further declines next week. Due to the intraday volatility I would expect a lot of two-way action but today’s one-way slide suggests that the market is unable to attract serious buying the next 72 hours. USD bears need to sell rallies and look for the majors to cover a lot of the same ground twice; day Forex traders will have a lot of money to make next week in my view. Monday is a light day for news and the whole week is likely to be technical trading so if not positioned with a lead be patient. There will be a lot of opportunity in my view.

EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5680
Resistance 2: 1.5630/40
Resistance 1: 1.5600/10
Latest New York: 1.5588
Support 1: 1.5550
Support 2: 1.5500
Support 3: 1.5480


Comments
Rate hammers the shorts; close above the 1.5550 area argues for additional follow-on buying but expect offers on the approach to 1.5630/40 area. Crude prices likely offering a bit of volatility. Traders like the rate to the upside as stops have been cleared underneath for now; longs likely to have rolled up stops under the 1.5520 area so volatility possible; don’t expect one-way action Monday. OK to re-short at 1.5620/30 area but be nimble; the rate is setting up for a potential upside recovery. Rally back from dip under the 1.5400 handle suggests active buying on dips; traders say lots of official and sovereign names seen buying dips. More losses are coming but the jury is out on the length of the bounce in progress.

Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.15
Support 1: 103.70/80
Support 2: 103.50
Support 3: 103.00


Comments
Stops drive the rate lower but the recovery off the low prints is a caution to bears. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; ok to add to the rate on further losses. Bids held the rate up for a test of the 105.00 handle this morning but the weakness is there into the end of New York so look for light volume rallies to sell into. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to fall on the news today but intraday volatility likely. Double-top remains strong sell signal suggests resistance area is getting thicker. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 104.30 area cleared overnight. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 105.50 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold. Traders looking for a struggle to get over the 105.50 area.

Data due Monday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 1.7%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate

In association with Forex Trading Edge

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

•USD rallies in light volume
•Traders say today was a “stop hunt”
•Short-term traders active


Overnight Preview

•USD likely to fall back, European data may lift EURO


Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•8:30am USD PPI m/m 0.4%
•8:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2%
•9:00am USD Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks
•9:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 38.0
•10:00am USD Fed Publishes TAF Summary


Summary
The hardly-watched LEI data today came out better-than-expected this morning and the USD saw a stop-driven rally ensue until after the London fix when the Greenback came under renewed pressure. Forex Traders note that volumes were not high and that it was clear that the majors had a short-lived stop-driven break; S/R held as expected and aside from a few wrong-footed panicked accounts the day was really a typical no-news day. I think the rally in the USD was seen as a bit too much for current conditions and waiting for both US and European news due out the next 24 hours. Overnight in Europe is German IFO and ZEW data likely to help the EURO build on a recovery off today’s 1.5484 low prints; highs in Europe this morning at 1.5634 went unchallenged in NY trade today. Absent were official names seen on the bid the past few sessions with most of their activity well below today’s lows suggesting that major names are unconcerned with today’s volatility. GBP fell back on stops as well tracking EURO lower until the low prints at 1.9452 where bids finally took a stand. Trading to within a few pips of the 1.9500 handle after the break the GBP remained under the 1.9500 handle through the close. Should EURO rally on positive economic news the GBP might go with it as there is nothing of note on the books for the UK overnight. USD/JPY and USD/CHF both had a strong stop-driven rally but both pairs finished well off their highs on the day and generated strong sell signals. USD/JPY had a high print at 104.71 before reversing to finish under the 104.30 area. USD/CHF had a high at 1.0575 and also finished under the 1.0530 area; both rates were rallying largely on light volumes and the moves were mostly exaggerated I think. I would look for both rates to fall back overnight and continue to attract selling on rallies. Ahead of US data in the morning I would look for some book-squaring; German data will likely cause a little volatility so leave stops where they are if holding positions. We were stopped out of short USD/CHF today but added to short USD/JPY; tomorrow should be an interesting day and I expect USD downside to follow-through as today’s trade was a “head-fake” I believe.


USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 105.00
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.50/60
Latest New York: 104.33
Support 1: 103.60
Support 2: 103.20/30
Support 3: 103.00


Comments
Stops drive the rate higher and after Friday’s stop-driven break the order boards are likely wiped clean. Failure to score the 105.00 handle very significant in my view. Strong sell signal from the toolbox today so OK to add to the open shorts. Upside will be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; we need a solid close under the 103.80 area next. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Look for the rate to continue sideways overnight as today’s stop-frenzy was unexpected. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; close-in stops under the 103.50 area likely in size today. Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Stops could be in size at the 102.50/80 area also but active selling needed. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index m/m 0.5%
Tentative JPY Overnight Call Rate 0.50%
2:00am JPY BOJ Monthly Report
Tentative JPY BOJ Press Conference

In association with Forex Trading Edge

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

•USD sharply lower
•German data surprises, EURO higher
•US PPI not so good


Overnight Preview

•Look for a correction lower by the majors; today’s rally overdone?


Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
•10:30am Crude Oil Inventories 0.2M
•1:00pm Fed Governor Warsh Speaks
•2:00pm FOMC Meeting Minutes


Summary
The Greenback is weaker to end the day and the sharp rise by the majors stopped at technical resistance across the board suggesting that the move was a bull-trap. All the majors look really bullish into current pricing but volumes were a bit lighter than might be expected suggesting that the pairs may have overextended themselves today. Most of the action was EURO-centered as cross-spreaders and sympathy buying kept the rate firm through stops in the 1.5600 area and above fueled the move into the high prints at 1.5681. Forex Trader’s note that the rate stopped cold and volumes dried up after the fix; possible correction to test the rally on the way. Aggressive traders can look to sell EURO in this area looking for a break into the low 1.5500 area the next 24-48 hours; IFO out tonight might surprise and help a correction get started. Cable rallied through stops as well for a high print at 1.9721 before falling back under the 1.9670 area and again traders note volumes dropped off dramatically after the fix. Subscribers should liquidate their long GBP positions and look to buy a pullback as the target/objective was basically reached as the volume dropped off. USD/JPY continued to weaken and low prints during mid-day at 103.44 failed to trigger large stops rumored to be resting in the 103.50 area; if nobody is home at these prices then a short-term bounce is very likely and a rally should fail quickly on any test of the 104.20 area or so. In my view, the USD had a hard and fast break that maybe went a little too far too fast. It’s OK to take advantage of the aggressive slide but note that the rotation the other way likely to be short and sweet also. Look for German IFO tonight to create a bit of volatility and for the most part the big news for the week is out. The rest of the week will likely be technical trading and volumes are likely to remain subdued. After a market makes a big move unexpectedly most traders look to take a step back. The US Memorial day weekend is this week and the prospect of a three-day weekend in the largest FX market will also likely keep traders sidelined. I would look for the week to start winding down Wednesday night into Thursday trade; lots of people will want to get a head-start on the weekend.


GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.9780
Resistance 2: 1.9750
Resistance 1: 1.9720
Latest New York: 1.9677
Support 1: 1.9620/30
Support 2: 1.9580
Support 3: 1.9550


Comments
Rate rallies in sympathy with EURO and clears close-in stops; aggressive active buying noted some desks report. High prints at the 1.9720 area is near-term resistance and a bout of long-liquidation is expected. OK to cover longs. Rate likely to have a fall-back should EURO drift lower now that the major news is out for the week. Close above the 1.9580 area favors additional strength but I still think there is potential selling pressure coming. Rate tested the 1.9700 handle after PPI this morning and volumes after the fix into the highs were lower.Cross-spreading for Yen, Swissy and EURO evident for the past week. Likely sovereign demand on the crosses as well again this week.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes 7-2 cut
4:30am GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.6%
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 1.8B


USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 104.80
Resistance 2: 104.50
Resistance 1: 104.10/20
Latest New York: 103.59
Support 1: 103.40/50
Support 2: 103.20/30
Support 3: 102.80


Comments
Rate falls back after a weak rally in Asia; traders note that stops are building in size under the 103.50 area with bids layered below to 103.00 area. Stops said to be large enough to drive the rate through bids for a test of the 102.80 area. Failure to score the 105.00 handle very significant in my view. Upside will continue to be labored now in my view but be nimble on shorts; we need a solid close under the 103.80 area next. If PPI disappoints today, that may be in the works for this afternoon. Conviction of the sellers being challenged but I think the weak hands are the longs as the volumes are increasing on the breaks and lighter on the rallies. Traders note that the market continues to trade technically and expect stops to be run in both directions near-term; Day traders continue to get a lot of opportunity as the rate will likely cover a lot of the same ground twice on the hourly time frame. Resistance at 104.80 area remains significant now and rallies should be sold.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity Index m/m -0.2%
7:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.79T

In association with Forex Trading Edge

Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Daily Forex Analysis

Pattern

Main Trend: Up
Main Trend Top: None
Main Trend Bottom: 1.5283 (05-08-08)

Current Pattern: Reversal Top 1.5814 (05-22-08)

Price

1.6019 Main Top (04-22-08)
1.5894 Gann Angle Down
1.5814 Closing Price Reversal Top (05-22-08)
1.5769* Gann Angle Down

1.5771 New York Close

1.5803* Gann Angle Up
1.5549 50% Retracement
1.5543 Gann Angle Up
1.5486 .618 Retracement

Time

05-23 180 Day Cycle
06-03 180 Day Cycle
06-05 Anniversary Date Top (06-05-07)

Analysis

The Main Trend is up. The closing price reversal top at 1.5814 on 04-22 has not been negated nor confirmed. A trade through 1.5814 negates the reversal top. A trade through 1.5612 confirms the reversal top.

If the reversal top is confirmed then look for the start of a retracement to 1.5549 to 1.5486.

A down trending Gann angle at 1.5769 is providing resistance. Regaining this angle would put the market in a strong position to rally. The next upside target would be a down trending angle at 1.5894.

Up trending Gann angle support comes in at 1.5803. A failure to hold this price indicates weakness and a possible break back to up trending support at 1.5543.

The read today is how the forex market trades at 1.5803 and 1.5769. These two angles are controlling the short-term direction of the market.

Go the way of the move on a breakout of either angle.

Written by James Hyerczyk

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

I think there was reversal top for EUR , going to 1.55xx again . so does the oil $128 now

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Forex Indicators Collection

I'm completely new to forex.. I need to know
What is Latest Forex Analysis Means?
plus What is ( USD ) means ????

EUR/USD
There is bearish potential for a fall to 1.5643 or 1.5595 while 1.5755 - 1.5779 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 1.5755 or 1.5779 is expected.
GBP/USD
It should see a sell off to below 1.9703 while 1.9775 area curtails its upside. A break beyond 1.9835 will abort the downside.

__________________
Forex Cash Cow system

Read the Daily Forex Trading Analysis

Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD starts slow; makes a show for strength in NY
• US data mixed and of little help
• Traders await more tomorrow

Overnight Preview

• Look for a rally in the USD overnight
• Lack of downside follow-on selling seen

Looking Ahead
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m -0.4%
• 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.5%
• 9:00pm USD Dallas Fed President Fisher Speaks
• 12:50pm USD Minneapolis Fed President Stern Speaks

Summary
The USD enjoyed a day of higher pricing but failed to break into any new areas of S/R against the majors. For the most part the Greenback remained inside established ranges but is showing signs of bottoming and very well may rally the next 24 hours. Today’s US data was a mixed bag and Forex traders note that across the board the USD attracted a fairly large amount of bids relative to the volume on the day. Although the day was considered a scratch day by most the USD continued to firm into the close of New York trading. After a brief flurry of activity during the release of Housing Data this morning the rest of the day was uneventful but continued to lean on the bid side suggesting that late USD shorts have yet to be cleared if they were shorts set “on the news” as is typical for small-money accounts. Cable dropped to the low end of the range but was unable to score new lows in New York; overnight stop-driven lows at 1.9713 remained unchallenged into the New York close. Traders note that the rate is tracking EURO today and because EURO was under threat most of the session GBP held on the softer side. EURO made new lows for the day at the 1.5700 handle on the AM news but failed to attract size on the offer. The rally to the 1.5730 area was on light volume and the rate fell back to close near the 1.5720 area in thin trade. A low-volume day after a three-day weekend suggests that large traders are secure in their positions and haven’t made a move yet this week. USD/JPY has a big day ahead of itself tomorrow in my view as COT data suggests that the market is heavily short USD into the 104.20 area. Although large stops are still out of range it is very likely that the rate will try for highs within 24 hours as the lows today were bought hard enough to challenge the 104.20 area on three occasions today. Often that is a sign of a market looking to make a move. For the day—the USD trade remained technical in nature and the lack of follow-on selling suggests that the market has one push higher into resistance coming. Aggressive traders need to be ready to sell the USD on a spike higher and tomorrow’s action likely to give us a point of reference in at least two-pairs: 104.80 area in USD/JPY and 1.5650 area in EURO/USD. Look for US news to increase volatility but for the pairs to stall at previous S/R during the London fix tomorrow.



EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.5880
Resistance 2: 1.5850
Resistance 1: 1.5810/20
Latest New York: 1.5699
Support 1: 1.5700/1.5690
Support 2: 1.5650
Support 3: 1.5600

Comments
Rate holds inside range so far for the day but is evidently starting the week a bit softer. Overhead resistance appears firmer on the approach to the 1.5800/20 area with stops said to be out of range above around the 1.5850 area. Traders note that the rate feels “heavy” to start the week and warn of a potential overhang of stale longs. Stops under the 1.5700 area are said to be in size and bids ahead are from larger names, Lack of volume a concern but no trouble attracting selling pressure today. Look for model and momentum accounts to be on the bid the next 24 hours and should that be the case the rate is due for a break lower. Adding to the potential is the COT data showing a flip to net long from net short before the holiday. A washout is likely in my view.


Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

2:00am EUR German Import Price Index m/m 0.6%
4:00am EUR Current Account 4.3B
Tentative EUR German CPI m/m (p) 0.3%



USD/JPY Daily

Resistance 3: 105.00/10
Resistance 2: 104.80
Resistance 1: 104.40/50
Latest New York: 104.24
Support 1: 103.20/30
Support 2: 103.00/102.90
Support 3: 102.50

Comments
Late rally shows upside bias still working. Rally into the 104.80 area is the best potential short area in my view. COT data showing an increase of net JPY longs making the upside potential for the USD a bit higher in my view. Stops above the 104.10/20 area likely to be in size and the question is how big are the offers ahead of 104.40? Stops the other side of 104.50 said to be in size suggesting that speculators got heavily short near current market pricing as 104.50 area is in range with the recent weekly highs. This week’s data may support near-term as the USD has had a lot of bad press the past quarter and has managed a firm start to the year; perhaps the Yen has a further downside correction to go before the USD bears are again out in force. If this weeks’ data is USD supportive then the rate has a pop higher into resting offers coming. Watch the upside volume for clues to the speed of the rally; if it is coming.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

Tentative JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks
7:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.5%
7:50pm JPY Large Retailers' Sales y/y -1.1%

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Analysis by: Forexpros.com written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

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