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10-14-2008, 05:17 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 14/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe • Majors rally on G-7 plan • Governments add liquidity and guarantees • Technical factors assist the major’s rally Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00am USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism • 12:30pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks • 2:00pm USD Federal Budget Balance Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m • 1:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary Despite a bank holiday in the US yesterday and low volumes the USD is beginning to show signs of topping against the majors. The G-7 meeting over the weekend has inspired confidence in the financial sector due to the response by the affected governments to assist the bailout. Led by Germany and the UK, the US announced additional measures to restore liquidity to the banking sector. Hundreds of billions in cash is being guaranteed by the major central banks including inter-bank lending, deposits, and customer obligations. Although the full impact of the plans will not be known for some time the confidence level of traders around the world is rising and slowly volume and liquidity is returning the FOREX markets. Equities markets around the world are rallying on the news with a record rise in the DJIA yesterday in holiday trade. The USD is weaker against the GBP, EURO, CAD and CHF from Friday’s close and higher against JPY as risk-aversion mitigates across the board. Cable is back trading on the 1.7500 handle to open New York today after a high print at 1.7606 overnight. Traders note that the heavily oversold market is correcting technically against the cross-rates as well and more time is needed to see if there is a firm bottom in the rate near-term. EURO is also higher with a high print at 1.3753 in early New York; traders report good buying by large names previously on the offer the past week suggesting at least some short-covering. Technical analysts suggest that a close this week back above the 1.3880 area signal a near-term bottom but whipsaw in both EURO and GBP is expected as the full impact of the bailout programs need to be better understood before the USD is heavily sold-off. USD/JPY is higher benefiting from unwinds of risk-aversion activity lately; traders note that offers above the markets are mixed with stops making for potential two-way trade as the USD attempts a return to the 103.00 handle; high prints overnight at 103.08. USD/CHF is lower; high prints overnight at 1.1338 but opens New York around 1.1270 area. USD/CAD had a massive rally on Friday that apparently was completely unrealistic as today the rate is a solid 6 big figures off the highs; opening New York at 1.1350 area after a high at 1.2127 Friday; traders note offers are thick on rally’s and the toolbox has signaled a reversal. In my view, the USD has turned the corner on this recent strength. Expect the majors to whipsaw a bit as traders settle back into a “sell USD” mode the next few weeks. Aggressive traders can look to buy dips in the Greenback this week. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7593 Support 1: 1.7440 Support 2: 1.7380 Support 3: 1.7300 Comments Rate recovers after announcement by G-7 and central banks, likely to pullback to support around the 1.7380 area for a buy point. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate. New Lows around the 1.6800 area likely to draw additional bids, traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle will likely help the longs. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Volumes lighter after the open. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index y/y 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3880 Resistance 2: 1.3820 Resistance 1: 1.3780 Latest New York: 1.3738 Support 1: 1.3580 Support 2: 1.3520 Support 3: 1.3480 Comments Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point, OK to buy the next dip. Aggressive traders can add to open longs on a close over the 1.3700 area. Pullback under the 1.3400 handle this week on lighter volume would be a great buy in my view. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil two-way spills over into pricing; weaker oil helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 5:00am EUR CPI y/y 5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.     
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10-15-2008, 08:43 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 15/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD has a technical day, holds S/R • Volumes continue to remain off • Traders remain unsure how to play the bailout Overnight Preview • Look for continued two-way trade • Economic news tomorrow may encourage some USD selling Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m • 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m • 8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index • 10:00am USD Business Inventories m/m • 1:15pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks • 2:00pm USD Beige Book Summary The USD had a uneventful day of mostly technical trade with only the USD/JPY stretching outside established overnight ranges to the downside and USD/CAD suffering a rally to the upside. Most pairs made early highs or lows on the news of additional government-sponsored bailout options provided by the US and other G-7 nations as the prop of the financial system continues to remain center-stage. With additional economic news due tomorrow expected to be USD bearish, it is likely that forex traders will see a bit of long-liquidation in the USD but the fact is most sentiment remains supportive of the USD near-term. Traders are expecting more two-way action similar to today’s trade at least through the end of the week. Aggressive traders will likely have the more short-term opportunity as the majors are likely to cover the same ground twice the next few days. Although initial reaction to the G-7 support was USD bearish the majors have not seen an increase in volumes and order-flow has been patchy some desks report. In my view, the majors will continue grinding sideways in a broader range the next few days as details begin to emerge that might break the Greenback one way or the other. GBP fell back from an early high at 1.7634 to trade back under the 1.7500 handle into the close. Traders note a lack of fresh buying after a round of short-covering lifted the rate in early trade. Cross-spreaders for Yen appear active again and a dip into the 1.7300 handle might be a buying opportunity near-term. EURO dipped a bit in sympathy as traders saw solid offers appear on the move to the 1.3700 handle; most desks are looking for a pullback to the 1.3500 area soon although good bids were seen around the 1.3620/30 area and above today. USD/JPY held near the 103.00 handle for most of the morning then began to slide off as equities retreated from their early gains. Most desks report that the volumes were light on the rally suggesting a “dead cat bounce’ may be developing in the rate. Low prints in late New York at 101.49 no doubt left the late longs stinging. USD/CHF failed to extend gains past the recent highs around the 1.1400 area; high prints at 1.1388 were turned back to close around the 1.1320 area. USD/CAD bounced higher after the 8-figure slide from Friday’s highs to trade the 1.1600 handle into the close; again traders have no reason to support such a move other than continued panic buying of USD by someone. Look for the rate to remain volatile. In my view, the whippy nature of the majors underscores the current lack of confidence traders continue to operate under. With a rally in equities fizzling into the close it underscores the lack of real progress made despite the promises of help from the powers that be. Look for the USD to remain two-way again overnight with a slightly higher bias into tomorrow’s news. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7438 Support 1: 1.7440 Support 2: 1.7380 Support 3: 1.7300 Comments Rate falls back after recovery to trade flat; likely to pullback to support around the 1.7380 area for a buy point. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. New Lows around the 1.6800 area likely to draw additional bids and will likely hold on further weakness, traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle will likely help the longs. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Volumes lighter after the open. Follow-on selling likely to attract short-covering on further weakness. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Possible sovereign interest on the dip as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Some stops triggered along with active selling; traders note profit-taking bids. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change 4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index y/y 4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3880 Resistance 2: 1.3820 Resistance 1: 1.3780 Latest New York: 1.3653 Support 1: 1.3580 Support 2: 1.3520 Support 3: 1.3480 Comments Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point, OK to buy the next dip. Aggressive traders can add to open longs on a close over the 1.3700 area. Pullback under the 1.3400 handle this week on lighter volume would be a great buy in my view. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view. Traders note stops triggered on the way down along with technical selling. Oil two-way spills over into pricing; weaker oil helps pressure also. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Final CPI m/m 5:00am EUR CPI y/y 5:00am EUR Core CPI y/y Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-16-2008, 08:50 AM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 16/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • Two-way trade after the open • US data negative but traders still watching credit • Technical trading finds some stops Overnight Preview • Look for some light follow-on buying of USD, then a fade • Should get quiet ahead of US data Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD CPI m/m • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases • 9:15am USD Capacity Utilization Rate • 9:15am USD Industrial Production m/m • 10:00am USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Summary The USD is ending the day mixed today after a solid two-way overnight session last night; holding on to gains against the GBP and EURO and making new highs around the London fix. Forex traders note that focus remains on the weakness in the financial markets and a 500-plus point drop in the DJIA today didn’t help sentiment despite weak economic data this morning. US data was USD-negative this morning and more is due tomorrow leaving the fundamental picture for the Greenback looking dismal; so why are traders still buying USD today? Some desks suggest that the tide is beginning to turn on that thinking and note that despite the credit-crisis and the liquidity crunch, the major pairs are all being sold for JPY for the most part. If the situation in the US is similar to the situation in Japan during the 1990’s then a sharp devaluation of the currency would be expected. It is hard to argue for a stronger USD long-term if the Fed will be forced to drop rates back down to the 1.0% level or lower in order to attempt a recovery from a recession/depression;; which the US is no doubt on the verge of. Still, USD remains bid against most pairs today with the exception of JPY. GBP high prints at 1.7604 went unchallenged today in New York and at the London fix dropped to new lows; traders note stops triggered along with active selling for a low print in late NY at 1.7298. GBP is very near a technical buy-point in my view after this morning’s failure to hold gains above the 1.7550 area; look for bids around the 1.7250 area overnight to support. EURO followed GBP lower for a low print at 1.3495 and is hovering off the 1.3500 handle in light trade. Volatility is likely a sign of near-term bottoming and I would look for a buy point in EURO on further weakness to the 1.3420/30 area if we get it overnight. USD/JPY fell victim to the weakness on Wall Street today holding its own for most of the day near the opening ranges but unable to show any strength at all in NY; low prints came as the DJIA slide off with current low prints at 100.42 making for a try on weekly lows but finding a bit of support; look for more downside in Asia overnight. USD/CAD continues to baffle traders as a rally through the 1.1850 area topped out at 1.1889; a full three big figures off the lows seen in Asia overnight. Panic trading of the pair likely was augmented by falling oil prices as Crude dropped three bucks to trade at another weekly low. Traders remind that the USD has a significant economic problem to reflect and current pricing is looking very toppy; but until the sentiment turns on the credit crisis the USD will likely suffer more two-way action with lots of volatility. Look for the USD to remain range bound after a try for slightly better highs overnight as tomorrows data is likely to be unfriendly. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7327 Support 1: 1.7300 Support 2: 1.7250/60 Support 3: 1.7220 Comments Rate firms after fall back yesterday but suffers selling after London; pullback to support around the 1.7380 area challenged and stops found under for lows. Rate at buy zone now but wait for further drop into 1.7250 area. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. New Lows last week around the 1.6800 area likely to hold now. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle has likely helped the longs; expect more buying on dips. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) NONE EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3880 Resistance 2: 1.3820 Resistance 1: 1.3780 Latest New York: 1.3507 Support 1: 1.3500 Support 2: 1.3480 Support 3: 1.3450 Comments Cross-spreading is mitigating and EURO/JPY is recovering driving support for EURO; bailout plan is likely to fuel recovery. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher. Two-year low on a Friday likely a bottom near-term. Rate at a buy point after latest attempt higher; OK to buy the next dip. Pullback under the 1.3500 handle likely to attract bids as further dip was bought aggressively last time. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view but be ready for continued two-way action ahead of a rally. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the bid. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-17-2008, 02:19 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 17/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • Poor US data fails to inspire a sell-off • Majors tracking equities • Traders continue to focus on financial crisis and not fundamentals Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way action • USD to consolidate again tomorrow Summary It was another volatile day in the US markets today, equities falling off again then whipsawing higher, oil dropping to yearly lows, USD whipping around as well. US data was weak as expected today; some analysts called it “hopelessly bearish” for the US economy. All news today was considered bad for the long-term health of the US economy but sharply lower Philly Fed was probably the most devastating. Apparently the manufacturing sector believes we are in a recession already and won’t be out of it for quite some time; Philly Fed out today at -37.5 vs. +3.8 last month. Although all data was weak today the USD continued to focus on the financial crisis and equities; the USD rising or falling with equities today for the most part. Traders note that the Greenback is remaining two-way in late New York trade with little pushing trade at all; thin conditions are exaggerating minor moves and most of the majors are ignoring fundamentals anyway. GBP rallied in late trade while EURO held back; high prints for Cable at 1.7354 with the rate above the 1.7330 area into the close. EURO was unable to extend early strength; high prints at 1.3539 went unchallenged after the London fix and the rate pressed for lows later in the day. Low prints at 1.3345 went unchallenged but the rate did forex trade to the low 1.3400 handle in US trade making for whippy conditions again today. USD/JPY had low prints overnight at 99.24 before rallying and whipsawed traders today as equities rallied then fell then rallied suggesting that there isn’t a lot of rational activity in the Greenback lately. In my view, the USD is still trapped in existing ranges and that it will take something more than bad economic news to shake things loose. I think it is apparent that the USD is under duress with bad economic conditions and the longer the USD hold these artificial gains the faster the drop will be when it comes. Look for more two-way action and the majors to track equities. Don’t expect some pairs to make a lot of sense the next day or two; apparently some action is being driven by panic and fear as the financial crisis continues to drag on. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7340 Support 1: 1.7130 Support 2: 1.7100 Support 3: 1.7020/30 Comments Just a bit early on the buy for GBP; rate falls then recovers and posts highs. Today’s action very whippy and two-way. Pullback to support around the 1.7380 area challenged and stops found under for lows. Rate at buy zone now but range appears wider. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. New Lows last week around the 1.6800 area likely to hold now. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle has likely helped the longs; expect more buying on dips. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) NONE EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3880 Resistance 2: 1.3820 Resistance 1: 1.3780 Latest New York: 1.3453 Support 1: 1.3350 Support 2: 1.3300/10 Support 3: 1.3280 Comments Rate dips to support a bit farther down than expected but rate attracts two-way action over the 1.3500 handle to open New York; stopped out of buy early. OK to look to the buy side again the next day or so. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher. Pullback under the 1.3500 handle likely to attract bids as further dip was bought aggressively last time. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Aggressive traders can buy anytime under the 1.3900 handle in my view but be ready for continued two-way action ahead of a rally. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names on the offer overnight this time. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 5:00am EUR Trade Balance Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) nalysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-20-2008, 06:27 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 20/08/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe • USD two-way and driven by technicals • Volumes better • Sentiment shifting more to “normal” Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:00A USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies • 10:00AM USD CB Leading Index m/m Looking Ahead to Tuesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • Tentative USD FOMC Member Stern Speaks Light day for all pairs tomorrow, expect technical trade. Summary The USD is mixed in solid two-way trade after starting overnight in directionless activity. Forex traders note that interest from both sides appears solid today with volumes noticeably better than the last few weeks. If the financial crisis is finally mitigating and banks are beginning to see liquidity loosen up then it is a fair bet that the markets are returning to “normal” at some pace now. Traders note that semi-official and sovereign interest in EURO is appearing on the dips to the 1.3380/1.3400 area of technical support; despite the recent volatility EURO is well-supported on dips. Aggressive traders can buy any dip under the 1.3400 area as the bottom appears to be forming finally in that area. High prints for the EURO overnight Asia at 1.3531 but stops were the main driver traders say; low prints at 1.3396 so far today with the rate opening New York near the lows this morning. GBP tracked EURO lower with mild UK data non-supportive traders say; low prints at 1.7277 and highs at 1.7520 but rate is firm in NY trade. USD/JPY continues to sketch out a trading range but failed to extend to the top of the recent range last week but highs were a respectable 102.44 before selling pressure returned. Traders note that equities are firmer this morning which is supporting the rate a bit but also remind that oil is sharply higher this morning also which is probably lending some upside pressure keeping the rate from advancing. No matter how you slice it oil is still expensive relative to recent years and that is not a positive for USD. Other pairs are also mixed today; Aussie is higher but Swissy and Loonie are flat to lower to start New York. Traders note that today’s start to the week is technical in nature with S/R holding about where expected from last week’s action. Look for a slow start to the week as fundamentals will be light for the next 24 hours or so and traders are beginning to focus away from the financial crisis now that things are returning to more “normal” conditions. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there but the sentiment is beginning to look beyond the crisis back to the long-term USD negative economic conditions. In that environment it is likely the USD will remain under pressure. As that develops there will be a lot of two-way action for us to get positioned around. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7720 Resistance 2: 1.7680 Resistance 1: 1.7630/40 Latest New York: 1.7397 Support 1: 1.7130 Support 2: 1.7100 Support 3: 1.7020/30 Comments Rate opens firm but ranges are slow to extend. Today’s action again very two-way. Drop under support around the 1.7380 area challenged and stops found under for lows; rally back to test for resistance finds a pullback to new support around 1.7300. Rate at buy zone now but range appears wider. Cross-spreading liquidation likely supporting the rate but two-way action adding to volatility. Monthly lows around the 1.6800 area likely to hold now. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. A solid close over the 1.7300 handle has likely helped the longs; expect more buying on dips. Aggressive traders can look to the buy side again on any dip the next day or so. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) Tentative GBP BOE Governor King Speaks 6:00AM GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3620 Resistance 2: 1.3580 Resistance 1: 1.3530 Latest New York: 1.3428 Support 1: 1.3350 Support 2: 1.3300/10 Support 3: 1.3280 Comments Rate remains range-bound but firm, upside capped around the 1.3500/20 area near term; semi-official names again seen on the dips overnight. OK to look to the buy side again early this week. Dip from highs holds technical support and should attract a rotation higher but traders warn of stops close-in; likely both ways so be ready for whipsaw. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time. Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) NONE Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-22-2008, 02:09 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 22/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • Traders report thin conditions after the start of New York • GBP drops to 2008 lows; EURO makes new 2008 lows • Technicians suggest over-sold conditions brewing Overnight Preview • Look for majors to hold ranges • Light economic Forex News Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories Economic news continues light today for everyone Summary The USD continued to advance against the majors today as stops under recent lows were triggered in thin forex trade; traders note two-way trade early overnight gave way to additional risk-aversion trade as desks reported USD buy-side interest into the London fix. After the noon hour traders note that the majors continued to drift lower as sell-orders and stops continued to pressure EURO and GBP into lows. Equities were under pressure after an early rally failed and USD/JPY dropped to new lows as exporters and Japanese lifers were seen on the offer late European trade and early New York. Semi-official names and sovereigns were on the bid for EURO and GBP early traders say but support evaporated as the day went on. EURO dropped to a low print of 1.3077 before profit-taking bids lifted the rate back over the 1.3140 area; again traders report thin conditions. GBP dropped to the 1.6800 handle for a low print at 1.6835 in late New York action and the 2008 lows are now under threat; technicians are targeting the next layer of support in GBP at the 1.6750 area. USD/JPY dropped to the 100.15 area before a late rally in equities lifted the rate back to the 100.80 area. Traders note that both Swissy and Loonie extended their respective ranges higher but sellers were active on the rally and both rates dropped back into the close a bit. Most pairs have completed technical objectives analysts say and are showing signs of oversold conditions suggesting that the USD may be finally due for a correction. In my view, the USD is overdue for a correction and now that the credit crisis may be showing signs of resolution the Greenback may fall back quickly; especially if economic news is unfriendly to end the week. Tomorrow is a light day for news but later in the week Existing home sales will likely show another decline. Regardless of near-term sentiment the USD has horrible fundamentals underlying current action; I am still looking for the USD to fall back to end the year. Tomorrow will likely be a day of technical trade as the calendar is again light; look for the majors to hold existing ranges. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.7380 Resistance 2: 1.7320 Resistance 1: 1.7250 Latest New York: 1.6707 Support 1: 1.6700/10 Support 2: 1.6650/60 Support 3: 1.6600 Comments New low late trade today; pressured lower from stops and general technical selling. Light UK data no help overnight; traders note middle-eastern names on the bid as the rate drops. Today’s action again very two-way; stops under the lows drive trade also. Drop under psychological support at 1.7000 challenged again. Rate at buy zone now but range appears wider. Drop under the 1.7200 handle finds light stops. Monthly lows give way as sentiment won’t rally. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. Aggressive traders can buy under 1.7000 area but expect more whippy action. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3500/10 Resistance 2: 1.3450 Resistance 1: 1.3380 Latest New York: 1.3060 Support 1: 1.3050 Support 2: 1.3000 Support 3: 1.2950/60 Comments More lows late New York; stops drive trade into next technical support. Option barriers reported on the dip. Official interest noted traders say around the 1.3250 area on the break with stops driving the dip lower. OK to look to the buy side now; rotation off the lows to hold above 1.3350 suggests a near-term bottom. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil two-way spills over into pricing but rate firm despite lower oil. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-23-2008, 03:49 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 23/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • Traders note volumes and conditions at almost zero • Stops drive a lot of the majors lower • USD/JPY into the 97.00 area Overnight Preview • Look for consolidation and a quiet night • USD likely to be sideways ahead of data Looking Ahead to Thursday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Unemployment Claims • 10:00am USD HPI m/m • 10:35am USD Natural Gas Storage Summary The USD continued to advance against most majors but lost ground against Yen to end the day mixed and at new highs for the year. Stops were triggered in thin forex trade traders report suggesting that some bottom-picking has been done recently but the relentless one-way USD advance today made quick work of the USD bears today. Traders report that conditions were horrible and volumes almost non-existent suggesting that a potential bottom is once again forming. With most traders focusing almost exclusively on liquidity, bank lending and the financial crisis, it appears evident that finding a USD bear will be hard work. In my view, the charge higher by the USD is suspect because it can’t last due to the underlying fundamentals being what they are. Lately traders have ignored US economic data preferring to trade on rumor and conjecture; tomorrow is regular unemployment and Friday is Existing home sales; both expected to be negative for the Greenback. On the day, Cable sank like a stone for a low print at 1.6138 after the London fix as more dovish rhetoric from the BOE filtered through the markets. Traders note that order boards are blank after the 500 point move overnight and the 1200 point move the past 48 hours; most are looking for a bounce to at least hang a hat on. EURO likely fell in sympathy although some suggest the EURO led the decline; either way the EURO dropped through the 1.3000 handle for a low print at 1.2737 before a bounce was seen. Traders report model accounts selling the rate under the 1.2900 area. USD/CHF rallied also for a high print at 1.1714 in NY before falling back on profit-taking; mist expect a test for stops again over the 1.1720 area near-term and that may finally be the sell for a potential top. USD/JPY fell in line with equities weakness; the DJIA losing 460 points on the day heading into the close. Low prints in USD/JPY at 97.29; aggressive traders can sell more on the close at the 97.50 area. In my view, the USD rally has got to be nearing the end of this move; fundamentals don’t support it and the financial crisis is showing signs of mitigating as some banks are returning to normal operations. Once USD bulls figure out they are holding expensive USD I think at least a small correction will force a top in the rate. Look for quiet overnight action as volumes are light and a steady open in NY tomorrow ahead of US data. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6800 Resistance 2: 1.6730 Resistance 1: 1.6500 Latest New York: 1.6234 Support 1: 1.6130 Support 2: ? Support 3: ? Comments Follow-on selling surprises to the downside; stops cleared and orders thin. Traders note solid bids but offers remain. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider. Drop under the 1.6500 handle finds light stops. Monthly lows give way as sentiment won’t rally. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Model accounts seen selling GBP and EURO overnight. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals Tentative GBP MPC Member Gieve Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3300 Resistance 2: 1.3120/30 Resistance 1: 1.3060 Latest New York: 1.2832 Support 1: 1.2735 Support 2: 1.2660 Support 3: ? Comments More lows overnight; stops drive trade into next technical support. After all is done today the rate is unchanged from US opens. Option barriers reported on the dip but those are cleared. Model accounts seen selling the rate under the 1.2800 area. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off. OK to look to the buy side now; rotation off the lows will likely signal a near-term bottom. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil two-way spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time. Data due Thursday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 4:00am EUR Current Account 5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m 9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-24-2008, 07:29 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 24/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Today’s US Dollar Trading • USD holds stable after two-way overnight • US news negative but ignored again • Volumes and liquidity thin again Overnight Preview • Look for more two-way action • USD likely to hold ahead of US data Looking Ahead Summary The USD is a bit softer to end the day but still holding overall gains this week; EURO is slightly higher to end the day as is Swissy and Loonie but for the most part today’s action was a non-event. Forex traders continue to complain about thin volumes and poor liquidity across the board but some banks are beginning to loosen up on credit some desks report. Although today’s US data was largely ignored it was USD negative suggesting that once things return to “normal” traders will find themselves holding a lot of expensive USD relative to underlying fundamentals. The Greenback may be topping a bit as today was the first down day for the USD since Monday attracted some bids in EURO and CHF suggesting that traders may be taking gains on older USD longs. In my view, the majors have likely dropped about as far as they can go under current sentiment; a bounce is needed to keep the markets healthy going forward. GBP fell to a new 5-year low at 1.6035 before attracting bids; likely some strength from EURO spilled over. EURO made a high for the day in New York trade reaching 1.2892 before falling back on aggressive selling. EURO held the 1.2800 handle all day and closed in the top 20% of its range today making a technical buy signal. USD/JPY continued to drop on repatriation needs as the Yen dominates near-term action. Low prints at 96.17 before some bids were seen but the fact remains that traders see the 95.00 handle as inevitable before any meaningful bounce will be seen. Equities lower helped to push the rate lower but a sharp rally in the last hour of equities trading opens the door for a potential rally in the USD/JPY. In my view, the rate is headed under the 95.00 handle and aggressive traders can add to open shorts on the break. Loonie may be topping as well as the rate failed at the 1.2700 handle this morning. Currently off almost 200 points from the highs, Loonie appears ready to finally correct lower as a hook reversal plays out . Look for the USD to continue sideways to lower overnight as Friday’s US data likely to be unfriendly again. Sooner or later the USD will have to reflect the underlying fundamentals. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.6800 Resistance 2: 1.6730 Resistance 1: 1.6500 Latest New York: 1.6141 Support 1: 1.6050 Support 2: ? Support 3: ? Comments Follow-on selling lacking overnight; rate holds lows and bounces. Possible point of indecision so OK to BUY the dip. Traders note solid bids again but order boards thin and liquidity is poor. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Follow-on selling likely from technical’s but spillover strength from EURO likely to be better to end the week. Look for a recovery back to the 1.8000 handle near term; two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Model accounts seen selling GBP and EURO Wednesday. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 4:30am GBP Prelim GDP q/q 4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3300 Resistance 2: 1.3120/30 Resistance 1: 1.3060 Latest New York: 1.2894 Support 1: 1.2720/30 Support 2: 1.2660 Support 3: ? Comments More lows overnight; stops drive trade into next technical support. After all is done today the rate rallies into the close suggesting a pause in the selling; hook reversal possibly signals a reversal. Option barriers reported on the dip but those are cleared. Model accounts seen selling the rate under the 1.2800 area. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off. OK to look to the buy side now; rotation off the lows will likely signal a near-term bottom. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Traders suggesting that the rate is continuing to trade technically. Traders note official names overnight this time. Data due Friday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 2:00am EUR German Import Prices m/m 3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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10-28-2008, 02:38 PM
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 28/10/2008
Daily Forex Trading Analysis
Overnight Asia/Europe • USD weakens after a slow two-way start • Traders note intervention fears and stops helping the majors higher • Equities recover and rally Today’s Economic Reports All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 9:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y • 10:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence • 10:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index • Tentative USD Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks Looking Ahead to Wednesday All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) • 8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m • 8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m • 10:35am USD Crude Oil Inventories • 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement • 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate Summary The USD started Asia firmer as stocks declined initially on follow-through selling from Monday’s weak finish. As intervention fears remained center stage for Asian forex traders the Greenback reversed against the Yen after mid-day and continued to climb as technical traders saw a potential correction developing; traders report stops in-range in the USD/JPY pair as well as upside pressure on the other majors. USD/JPY had an initial low print at 92.47 before rallying with stops helping to lift into a high print at 96.19 before dropping back in late European trade. Overnight intervention by the RBA lifted the Aussie Dollar higher and helped drive fears the BOJ might intervene in the Yen but so far there have been no signs of any selling to stem the Yen’s rise. GBP is higher but under pressure after the release of weak Retail Sales data; high prints at 1.5757 were turned back in late European trade and the rate is now firm around the 1.5650 area to start New York. Traders note cross-spreading for Yen again as well as middle-eastern names seen on the bid as a potential bottom appears to be forming in Cable this week. EURO also saw some upside pressure as EURO/JPY was unwound; high prints at 1.2589 are lower than recent highs due to volatility but still under upside pressure. Traders note stops in range helping to lift the rate suggesting that the shorts are getting nervous that no new lows have traded yet. Aggressive traders can buy a dip in EURO as the lows appear to be holding; if this is a near-term bottom the 1.3000 area may trade to the upside as that was the breakdown point last week. In my view, the majors are trying to bottom and now that things are beginning to look more “normal” as the credit crisis is mitigating a bit, equities are about done selling off and the worst of the financial crisis may be behind us; weak USD fundamentals may be returning to center stage. Today’s the US FOMC begins their two-day policy meeting and if the US FED cuts rates and the other G7 CB’s cut rates I don’t see the USD in a position of strength to end the year. GDP is likely to show a contraction on Friday as well so this week could be a pivotal week for the Greenback. GBP/USD Daily Resistance 3: ? Resistance 2: ? Resistance 1: 1.6330 Latest New York: 1.5727 Support 1: 1.5400 Support 2: 1.5250 Support 3: ? Comments Volatility decreases a bit as today is another inside range day but trading higher. Traders note stops and unwinding of cross-spreads supporting the rate. Follow-on selling finds bids at prior low. Bounce off the lows yesterday and today leaves a healthy bid wick suggesting some upside coming soon but volatility is still high. Traders note liquidity is still thin. Rate at new support level but ranges appears wider. Traders note quality bids on the dip suggesting a bottom is in here somewhere but buyers have been stepping up for 1000 points now; many likely sidelined. Aggressive traders can buy anytime but expect more whippy action. Two-way action likely to continue. Confirmed sovereign interest on the dip last night as semi-officials seen on dips in both EURO and GBP recently; lately middle-east names. Traders report cross-spreading for Sterling crosses likely driving the rate near-term. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) 5:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5:30am GBP Mortgage Approvals 2:00pm GBP MPC Member Blanchflower Speaks EURO/USD Daily Resistance 3: 1.3050 Resistance 2: 1.3000/10 Resistance 1: 1.2800 Latest New York: 1.2555 Support 1: 1.2330 Support 2: ? Support 3: ? Comments More lows overnight; but buyers show up. Hook reversal showing from the toolbox today suggests aggressive traders can buy the rate soon. Rate possibly getting spillover effect from GBP. Overnight news shows inflation not as bad as expected also helping to lift the rate a bit. Support possibly from option trades; but those are cleared. Official interest noted traders say but rate continued to sell-off. Rate is an absolute screaming buy in my view—I can’t see further weakness being ignored by the buyers but conditions are not right I think; possibly overnight tonight into Wednesday. Oil pressure likely spills over into pricing and if oil rallies it might take EURO with it. Traders note stops building above the market along with offers. Expect more two-way action with upside bias; traders note the rate is finding profit-taking bids on dips so far despite the uncertainty in the market. Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-4 GMT) All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -5) Analysis Provided by: Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky Also Check our Forex brokers Section. DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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