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General view
A high volatility is observed at the market. Bears’ optimism about dollar is inspired by: the growth of EURUSD by 400 points since January 22 during two days; an update of Gold’s peaks and the sudden turn of the ascending trend of dollar index. But then again, a close look shows that dollar should start growing on Monday. For example, in EURUSD I expect such targets: 1.4542 (minimally), then 1.4445 and further to 1.4300. In USDCHF: 1.1310. In GOLD: 869 (minimally), 856 and 838. Meanwhile, dollar index will rise to 76.83 and 77.15.
EURUSD
The daily and 4-hour graphs show that the pair bumped off the lower bound of a “double top” (“D-D+”) shape. This circumstance determines the development of further descending to 1.4525 target minimally. If this level won’t offer a strong support (what is unlikely to happen) the pair will go down to 1.4445. If 1.4542 will offer support, a “head & shoulders” shape will be formed on H4; the right shoulder of this shape will end at ~1.4655, with bumping off it and breaking the neck line. After that, for the forming of a proper descending trend, the pair will need to update 1.4363, what will lead to breaking of the “E-E+” weekly ascending trend. Breaking of such an important trend will entail the continuation of pair’s dropping to the weekly ascending trend (the higher bound of a “bull’s triangle”) “G”, the 1.4300 level. http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2086/eurusdd1sh8.gif - D1 http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/7624/eurusdw1pl8.gif - W1
GBPUSD
I don’t develop certain trading tactics for this pair because it is now in a heavy influence of EURGPB, which started to drop again with 0.7340 target. Due to the fact that GPB is not a very strong currency at the moment, the GBPUSD pair will move opposite to the general tendency of market’s behavior. Or it will often pass false levels, what can lead to stops’ activation in different directions. I have determined the range of pair’s free movement: 1.9665 – 1.9890. In the case of breaking the level 1.9890 (trend C+), I think there is a good chance for going up to 2.0120, if EURGBP will continue to drop and will have the potential of further lowering. http://img115.imageshack.us/img115/1851/gbpusdh4yh1.gif - H4 http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/8669/gbpusdd1lx3.gif - D1
USDCHF
The pair bumped off a very strong trend line. I consider the ascending movement as a main one. I expect the breaking of “F” trend (1.1085) followed by further growth with a target 1.1310. http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/8440/usdchfd1mg2.gif - D1
USDJPY
I expect an ascending movement, if the higher bound of an H4 channel “a-a+” won’t be broken bottom-up like “b-b+” trend. Starting from “a+” trend the buying is acceptable. The first target is 109.40, after which the 111.30 level is possible. http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2108/usdjpyd1ia8.gif - D1
GOLD
Maximums have been updated again. Looking the picture about GOLD parallel to DXY and EURUSD pair, the conclusion is clear that gold won’t be able to grow further, because the dollar will start to grow from now on. On the H4 graph the ascending “a-a+” trend was broken, what is a first embryo of a descending trend. In the case of breaking the “b-b+” side trend, the certain descending trend will start with the first target of 869.78. If this level won’t offer a strong support, the descending movement will continue to 856 minimally.
On H4 just like on D1 we see the forming of a “double top” shape (C-C+); breaking of its lower bound “C” (856) opens the path of dropping to the lower bound of the weekly ascending trend “D-D+”, trend “D” (838). http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/4337/goldd1bo6.gif - D1
General view
EURUSD is now the pair that sets the fashion at the market, at the daily graph it is situated within a fixed range (“triangle” shape). Development of dollar’s situation will depend on EURUSD variants: whether it will be able to break the higher bound of a shape, or it will remain within the range, being corrected in the 5th wave of a shape to its lower bound “M” – 1.4420 level. But dollar growth is being supported not only by the 5th wave of triangle over EURUSD but also by GOLD, which is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29, meaning that at that time EURUSD pair will have to break “triangle” shape and then we would expect going down to 1.3740, and therefore a serious strengthening of dollar.
EURUSD
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. But I consider such variant only in the case if the trend line “b” will be broken, because the pair continues growing efforts and the descending impulse isn’t that strong.
While the pair is situated below “a-a+” trend and “M+” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape) the descending tendency remains. There are 2 resistances at the moment: 1.4840 and the key 1.4875 – one of these will stop the ascending correction. I advise to sell upon breaking of “b” trend line with a target 1.4667 at least. Strategically, I will try hard to grow positions to sell with a target 1.4420.
D1 graph
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken.
GBPUSD
The pair found its support at 1.9663 and started the ascending correction, which was caused also by descending tendencies over EURGBP. Ascending correction may last until the resistance 1.9868. In the perspective I expect the pair at 1.9396 minimally. But at the moment GBP is a very weak currency and I don’t expect the strict execution of a technical picture from it; that’s why I won’t enter the market with this pair, and I advise the same to you. See also the EURGBP forecast. The resistance is currently at 0.7517.
USDCHF
Although upon breaking “a-a+” descending trend an ascending trend should start, at H1 a turned “double top” shape has formed. It may force the pair to go down to 1.0810 support, after what the ascending movement will continue at least to the 1.0991 resistance, and strategically to 1.1290 level. Also there is a support at 1.0868 (I forgot to mark it on the graph). http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20h4.gif - H4 http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdchf%20d1.gif - D1
GOLD
At D1 graph gold is now in “Wolf waves” model, bounced off the 5th wave and forwarding to the 6th (850.90). In fact, gold is also in a turned “double top” shape and its lower bound – the support – is at 871.07. If it will be broken GOLD will descend not only to the 6th Wolf wave, but further to the target level 821.29.
The targets are certainly cheerful but at the moment gold laid down a correction to 922.49 level, due to the fact that at H1 graph a turned “double bottom” shape has formed, upon breaking its higher bound (“a+”) the correction will surely start.
Also D1 is closed by “dodji” candle, which implies correction by itself. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPHS/04_02_08/gold%20h1.gif - H1 http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - H4 http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20d1.gif - D1
General wiev
This week (11-15.02.08) possible either continuing trend toward consolidation of the dollar or some correction. The last week the pair EUR/USD has been in the «triangle» formation and still will be there some time. The GOLD has formed turn around formation «head & shoulders» and looks like this week its «neck line» will be broken, in this case the GOLD will drop up to 851$ and of course this will be in favor of a dollar.
The correction of the dollar is more possible then its growth starting Monday, but in the long term the dollar will continue growth, this is why who has long term positions to buy a dollar I suggest continue to keep them open.
General view
The market is correcting. The data of “USA Trade balance” was released on Thursday, it turned out much better than it was predicted (–58.8 versus –61.8 forecast) and so most traders expected a vivid movement at the market right at this day, especially taking into account the release of such a good index. However, there was no luck, the movement was suspended after Ben Bernanke’s speech. But that’s the way it’s meant to be, the market can’t move in a single day in the direction of released news, traders should never run out of questions. That’s why a vivid movement will occur on Friday, after the news release, and it will be in favor of dollar.
EURUSD
The pair’s correction continues. On the 4-hours graph an ascending Elliot’s five-waves curve formed, with a final 5th wave at 1.4655 level. From that level I expect the correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend with a target at the lower bound of the “triangle” shape (M) on D1 to 1.4430 level, and further to trend line “G”, 1.4270 level. Breaking of “a-a+” trend will be a confirmation of descending movement’s beginning. On this day (Friday) TICS indicator, a very important indicator for USA, is released. I expect the development of such scenario on this day.
Daily
At the daily graph the pair is situated within a fixed range of “triangle” shape. Upon bouncing off its higher bound “M+” the descending 5th internal wave of the shape is developing now with the target 1.4420. If the higher bound “M+” will be broken, the pair will look forward to 1.5550 level. If the lower bound “M” will be broken, then to 1.3740. Dollar situation depends on the direction in which “triangle” shape will be broken. http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20d1.gif -daily http://www.forexmillion.com/images/G...urusd%20w1.gif - weekly
USDJPY
The picture about the pair is turning out neatly from previous forecast: from support 106.63 it went up and broke the “triangle” shape. With its breaking two targets opened: 109.36 and 110.57 – the pair is on its way to them. There’s a possibility of return to the higher bound of “triangle”, level 107.60, from which an ascending movement to specified targets will recommence. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20d1.gif - daily
I am sorry for a delay, there were problems with the internet
General view
It seemed that the last week behaved in such a way that should cause the dollar to continue its weakening. But as I repeatedly stated in my previous forecasts, that was nothing but a correction and the dollar will continue its growth as early as the European session opens on Monday. To tell the truth, dollar against euro will grow not as fast as against GBPUSD. This is caused by the picture over EURGBP: the pair intends to break the “triangle” shape at the daily graph and to go up to the level 0.7770. Gold with LS crude oil unambiguously show the descending movement, which is also in favor of dollar
EURUSD
H4
The pair is being traded in “a-a+” ascending correction channel. Bounce off the “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and, upon breaking the lower bound of “a-a+” trend, the beginning of a descending trend towards “M” trend line (the lower bound of the “triangle” shape). 1.4515 is the level of a minor resistance.
Daily
The pair is being traded within the “triangle” shape (“M-M+” channel), I expect its breaking downwards (breaking of “M” trend line). It’s clearly seen by looking through the candles that the current ascending movement from “Y” trend line is correctional. Bounce off “X” trend line implies correction’s completion and the beginning of a descending trend to “M” trend line (1.4430), and upon its breaking, to trend lines “W” and “Q” (1.4290).
Weekly
Owing to the support from the “Q” trend line, the “triangle” shape has been formed (“M-M+” channel). Its lower bound “M” has to be broken, leading to the breaking of “E-E+” ascending trend and the movement towards “N” trend line (1.34/1.33). http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...d%20weekly.gif - weekly
Monthly
The pair is over “Q” trend line, which, having offered support to the pair, gave a possibility for a turned “triangle” shape to be formed at the Weekly graph. Starting from the fact that at the Weekly graph a turned “triangle” shape has formed, and it has to be broken downwards, “E-E+” ascending trend will be broken also downwards and the pair will forward to “N” trend line (1.34/1.33). A correction to levels 1.42/1.43 is possible from this trend line. Further the descending movement will be amplified by relatively fine formed “double top” turned shape (“G-G+” channel). If this shape (“G” trend line) will be broken, EURUSD will go down to 1.1900. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif - monthly
GBPUSD
H4
“a-a+” ascending correction trend was broken, so now the pair is on its way down to trend lines “N” and “Y” (1.9430).
Daily
The bounce off the higher bound of “C-C+ descending trend confirms the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend line and to continue the descending movement with the target 1.9076.
Weekly
The breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend implies breaking of the red “N” trend line and reaching the lower bound of “G-G+” channel (turned “double top” shape), the level 1.84/1.85. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...d%20weekly.gif - weekly
Monthly
A turned “Wolf waves” model was formed (bounce off the 5th wave) with the target 1.7145. The breaking of the black “E-E+” ascending trend confirmed this model and the pair’s intentions to break “N” trend, as well as the lower bound of the turned “double top” shape (1.84/1.85), upon breaking of which the target of the 6th Wolf’s wave, the level 1.7145, will be reached. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...%20monthly.gif - monthly
Í4
The pair has broken the “triangle” shape. Although it wasn’t really straight, nevertheless the breaking of this shape is a signal to the beginning of an ascending trend. “Y” trend line can offer some resistance, but the pair is aimed at the level 109.36. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...sdjpy%20h4.gif - h4
Í4
The “triangle” shape is formed with “R-R+” bounds. The breaking of “R” trend line together with “Y” opens the road of lowering towards “E” trend line – the lower bound of the ascending weekly trend. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH.../gold%20h4.gif - h4
Daily
The turned “Wolf waves” model is formed with the target $860-870. The breaking of “Y” trend line will confirm the model and intentions of the descending movement. Upon breaking of the lower bound of “E-E+” ascending trend (which is supposed to happen) the pair will go down to the level $800. http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...ld%20daily.gif - daily
Í4
The bounce off “X” trend line occurred, what assumes the breaking of the lower bound of “a-a+” ascending correction trend and the movement towards the lower bound of “C-C+” channel ($89). The breaking of “C” trend will give the pair a chance to go down to “Z” trend line ($85-56). http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20oil%20h4.gif - h4
Daily
We could suppose that the “double bottom” shape was formed, but it is impossible during the correction. That’s why I consider the bounce off “X” trend line as a sign of turn. From this trend line I expect lowering to “Z” trend line ($85-86). http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...il%20daily.gif - daily
EURUSD H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5310
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5150, then level 1.5010 and 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5310 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950 http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif
Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 1.5520
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.5310, then level 1.4950 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.4950, then level 1.5520 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.4950
GBPUSD H4 forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610 http://forexmillion.com/images/GRAPH...20forecast.gif
Daily forecast
1) Ascending trend, target of movement 2.0133
2) if the pair won't be able to go up than level 1.9875, then level 1.9690 - 1.9630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.9610, then level 1.9825 and 2.0133 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go down 1.9610
Daily forecast
1) Descending trend, target of movement 1.0240
2) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 1.0415, then level 1.0630 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 1.0630, then level 1.0240 will become its target
Cancellation of the scenario 2, if the pair will be able to go higer 1.0630
USDJPY
1) Descending trend, target of movement 105.60 (102.00)
2) ...
3) if the pair won't be able to go down than level 105.60, then level 107.10 will become its target. And if the pair won't be able to go higer than level 107.70, then level 102.00 will become its target
Linear Mode
